Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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664
FNUS71 KALY 191756
FWSALY

Spot Forecast for Apple Orchard RX...USFS
National Weather Service Albany NY
156 PM EDT Mon Apr 19 2021

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1200 EDT on April 20.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.  Please contact our office at alb.stormreport@noaa.gov, if
you have questions or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
Dry weather is anticipated for Tuesday. A frontal boundary will pass
through the region during the morning hours, with decreasing cloud cover
and winds becoming westerly around 5 to 10 mph.  Some gusts may reach
close to 20 mph during the afternoon hours.  After RH values around 80
percent during the early morning hours, RH values will be as low
as 50 percent by the early to mid afternoon hours.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers early in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Begin/end of pcpn...
Temperature.........52 at ignition...Min 39.
RH..................51 percent at ignition...Max 76 percent.
Dewpoint............36.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Winds southwest at 3 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Light winds.
Mixing height.......2800 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 1400-2800
                    ft AGL decreasing to 0-400 ft AGL early in the
                    evening.
Transport winds.....Southwest 5 to 13 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good /34900 knot-ft/ at ignition. Min...poor /0
                    knot-ft/.
Haines Index........4 low potential for large plume dominated fire
                    growth at ignition...max 5.
Pcpn amount.........0.01 inches.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM         10 PM        2 AM
Sky (%).........49           20           21
Weather cov.....S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR       NONE         NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).20           10           0
Temp............52           45           41
Dewpoint........38           38           36
RH..............51           68           73
20 FT wind......SW 3G8       SW 2G7       SW 2G6
Mix hgt (ft)....2800         BLW100       100
Transport wind..SW 13        SW 6         SW 5
Haines index....4            4            4
VRate kt-ft/100035           0            0

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Temperature.........Max 54.
RH..................Min 50 percent.
Dewpoint............37 increasing to 38 late in the morning, then
                    decreasing to 34 late in the afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Light winds becoming west 5 to 10 mph with
                    gusts to around 20 mph in the late morning and
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......0-1400 ft AGL increasing to 4300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 5 to 9 mph increasing to west 25 to
                    29 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (0-28200 knot-ft) increasing to
                    excellent (106600 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 to 4 OR very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........45  46  46  51  56  61  61  62  62  58  54  50
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Temp............41  43  47  48  50  50  51  51  51  51  52  51
Dewpoint........35  36  38  39  39  40  40  39  39  37  35  34
RH..............73  76  76  74  66  61  57  55  55  55  54  56
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..2   2   4   6   6   7   8   8   9   9   9   9
20 FT wind gust.7   8   11  13  16  17  17  18  18  18  19  18
Mix hgt (kft)...0.1 0.1 0.3 1.4 2.6 3.5 3.2 2.6 2.2 2.9 3.8 4.3
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.5   7   9   15  22  26  28  26  25  26  29  29
Haines index....4   4   4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
VRate kt-ft/10000   0   2   28  59  80  73  58  49  69  95  107

.TUESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers after midnight.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
Begin/end of pcpn...
Temperature.........Min 36.
RH..................Max 85 percent.
Dewpoint............31.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......West winds 5 to 8 mph with gusts to around 16
                    mph early in the evening becoming light.
Mixing height.......2000-3300 ft AGL decreasing to 700-1200 ft AGL
                    early in the evening.
Transport winds.....West 20 to 25 mph decreasing to 7 to 15 mph
                    early in the evening, then shifting to the
                    north 3 to 5 mph after midnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Good to excellent (43500-81500 knot-ft)
                    decreasing to poor (2600 knot-ft) early in the
                    evening.
Haines Index........2 to 3 OR very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.07 inches.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........45     36     45     53     61     66
Weather cov.....                            CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).10     10     10     10     30     30
Temp............49     45     43     40     39     37
Dewpoint........32     30     30     29     29     32
RH..............58     63     65     70     76     82
20 ft wind......W 7    W 5    W 3    W 2    W 1    N 1
20 ft wind gust.16     13     12     10     6      5
Mix hgt (ft)....3300   800    900    1200   1000   800
Transport wind..W 25   W 15   W 13   W 9    NW 5   N 5
Haines index....3      2      3      3      3      3
VRate kt-ft/100082     11     7      10     4      3

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers early in the morning, then rain showers
                    likely early in the morning. Rain showers early
                    in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......80 percent.
Begin/end of pcpn...
Temperature.........Max 49.
RH..................Min 80 percent.
Dewpoint............36 increasing to 41 late in the morning.
Wind (20 ft)........
 Slope/valley.......Light winds becoming southwest around 5 mph
                    with gusts to around 16 mph early in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......500-900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 5 to 14 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2500 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 very low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.49 inches.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM         10 AM        2 PM
Sky (%).........70           79           87
Weather cov.....CHANCE       LIKELY       DEFNTE
Weather type....RNSHWR       RNSHWR       RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).30           60           80
Temp............37           41           46
Dewpoint........34           38           43
RH..............85           83           80
20 FT wind......E 1G6        SE 2G8       S 5G13
Mix hgt (ft)....600          700          900
Transport wind..NE 5         E 6          SE 12
Haines index....3            3            3
VRate kt-ft/10003            4            9

$$
Forecaster...Frugis
Requested by...Don Tucker
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2109646.0/ALY
.DELDT 04/19/21
.EMAIL nhnecc@firenet.gov



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