Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Boston, MA

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000
FNUS71 KBOX 221447
FWSBOX

Spot Forecast for Freetown State Forest Fire Weather...DCR FIRE MA
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
1047 AM EDT Tue Sep 22 2020

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1100 EDT on September 22.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...
Breezy to windy conditions will develop this afternoon, with north
winds gusting over 30 mph. Relative humidity values will be
dropping below 30% as well. Thus the Red Flag Warning that is in
effect. Winds will diminish during the evening, but not very good
humidity recovery is expected tonight. Tomorrow will be warmer and
still dry. Relative humidity values will fall to around 40% in the
afternoon. Breezy west winds with gusts over 20 mph are expected.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 68.
Min humidity........24 percent.
Dewpoint............31.
Max apparent temp...67.
Surface winds.......North winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts to around
                    35 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts to around
                    35 mph.
Mixing height.......2500-4000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 33 to 39 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (73700 knot-ft) increasing to
                    excellent (101700 knot-ft) late in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............1.
ADI.................73 increasing to 86 early in the afternoon,
                    then increasing to 101 in the afternoon
                    decreasing to 91 late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 low potential for large plume dominated fire
                    growth.
CEILING (KFT).......25.

TIME (EDT)      11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........74  61  68  67  84  85  83
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............56  60  64  66  67  66  65
Dewpoint........33  31  30  29  29  30  32
RH..............42  33  28  25  24  26  29
Heat index (F)..56  60  64  66  67  66  65
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   N   N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..17  18  20  20  18  17  15
20 FT wind gust.30  31  33  35  33  32  31
Surface wnd dir.N   N   N   N   N   N   N
Surface wnd spd.17  18  20  20  18  17  15
Surface wnd gst.30  31  33  35  33  32  31
Mix hgt (kft)...2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 3.7 3.5 3.2
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   N   N   N
Transp wind spd.33  36  37  39  38  38  37
LVORI...........1   1   1   1   1   1   1
ADI.............73  86  96  105 102 98  91
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4
VRate kt-ft/100074  94  113 137 124 114 102
Ceiling (kft)...25  25  25  25  25  25  25

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (45-55 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (55-65 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (25-35 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 46.
Max humidity........79 percent.
Dewpoint............34 increasing to 38 around midnight.
Max apparent temp...63.
Surface winds.......Northwest winds 6 to 14 mph. Gusts up to 28 mph
                    in the evening.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 6 to 14 mph. Gusts up to 28 mph
                    in the evening.
Mixing height.......300-2200 ft AGL decreasing to 200 ft AGL early
                    in the morning.
Transport winds.....North 23 to 30 mph becoming northwest around 10
                    mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair to good (26400-58500 knot-ft) decreasing
                    to poor to fair (2200-13000 knot-ft) until just
                    after midnight.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................61 decreasing to 7.
Haines Index........4 to 5 OR low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.
CEILING (KFT).......25.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........72  73  69  81  64  49  46  49  63  52  33  28
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............63  59  57  54  52  51  50  49  49  48  47  46
Dewpoint........32  33  35  36  36  37  38  39  40  40  40  40
RH..............31  37  43  50  54  59  63  68  71  74  76  79
Heat index (F)..63  59  57  54  52  51  47  46  46  45  44  43
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   N   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..14  13  10  10  9   8   8   8   8   7   7   6
20 FT wind gust.28  23  20  20  18  18  18  18  18  17  16  15
Surface wnd dir.N   N   N   N   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Surface wnd spd.14  13  10  10  9   8   8   8   8   7   7   6
Surface wnd gst.28  23  20  20  18  18  18  18  18  17  16  15
Mix hgt (kft)...2.2 1.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.30  23  16  17  20  21  18  15  13  12  12  10
LVORI...........1   2   2   2   2   3   3   3   3   3   4   4
ADI.............61  26  14  15  18  19  12  10  8   5   5   5
Haines index....4   4   4   4   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
VRate kt-ft/100059  26  6   8   10  13  9   6   3   3   3   2
Ceiling (kft)...25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25  25

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 78.
Min humidity........42 percent.
Dewpoint............43 increasing to 52.
Max apparent temp...77.
Surface winds.......West winds 7 to 12 mph. Gusts up to 24 mph
                    through early afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 7 to 12 mph. Gusts up to 24 mph
                    through early afternoon.
Mixing height.......300-2000 ft AGL increasing to 5000-5500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 12 to 21 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (3400-47900 knot-ft) increasing to
                    good to excellent (58700-93200 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................12 increasing to 80.
Haines Index........3 to 5 OR very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.
CEILING (KFT).......25 decreasing to 5.0.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........24     16     14     22     34     44
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0      0      0      0      0      0
Temp............47     51     63     71     76     76
Dewpoint........41     44     46     49     51     52
RH..............79     77     54     46     42     43
Heat index (F)..44     51     63     71     76     76
20 ft wind......NW 7   NW 9   W 10   W 12   W 12   W 10
20 ft wind gust.17     21     22     24     24     23
Surface wind....NW 7   NW 9   W 10   W 12   W 12   W 10
Surface wnd gst.17     21     22     24     24     23
Mix hgt (ft)....300    500    2000   3500   5000   5300
Transport wind..NW 12  NW 14  NW 18  NW 20  NW 18  NW 20
LVORI...........4      4      1      1      1      1
ADI.............12     11     45     68     76     83
Haines index....5      4      5      5      4      3
VRate kt-ft/10003      7      31     59     81     91
Ceiling (kft)...25     25     25     25     25     12

$$
Forecaster...Nash
Requested by...George P. Kleczka
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2012867.0/BOX
.DELDT 09/22/20
.EMAIL ppk308@yahoo.com


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