Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FNUS71 KBTV 191903
FWSBTV

Spot Forecast for Tarbellville RX...USFS
National Weather Service Burlington VT
303 PM EDT Mon Apr 19 2021

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 EDT on April 20.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (802) 658-0207, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
Tuesday will be breezy with winds initially out of the southwest
during the morning, then increasing during the afternoon and
becoming westerly. Winds will then be light and variable
overnight into Wednesday morning, though becoming breezy again on
Wednesday this time out of the south-southeast. Overall, dry
conditions expected with increasing chances for rain after 12 AM
Wednesday morning. High temperatures Tuesday will be in the low
50s, though a sharp temperature gradient will exist as a cold
front moves from west to east during the day Tuesday. Minimum
relative humidity will be in 50 to 55% range Tuesday afternoon,
recovering to near 90% overnight Tuesday into Wednesday.

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Begin/end of pcpn...
Max temperature.....Around 53.
Min humidity........51 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 12 to 20 mph. Gusts up to 31 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......4800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 10 to 14 mph increasing to west 31 to
                    33 mph.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........42     59     68     68     57
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).10     10     10     10     10
Temp............44     49     52     53     50
RH..............76     68     61     57     54
20 ft wind......SW 12  SW 15  W 17   W 20   W 20
20 ft wind gust.       18     22     25     24
Mix hgt (ft)....300    1700   3000   4000   4500
Transport wind..SW 10  W 20   W 29   W 32   W 33
Haines index....3      3      3      3      2

.TUESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers late in the evening. Chance of
                    rain showers overnight, then rain showers
                    likely early in the morning.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
Begin/end of pcpn...
Min temperature.....Around 35.
Max humidity........92 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 8 to 16 mph with gusts to around 19
                    mph decreasing to 5 to 6 mph overnight, then
                    shifting to the southeast around 5 mph after 3
                    am.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 18 to 25 mph becoming southwest 5 to 13
                    mph early in the evening, then shifting to the
                    southeast 6 to 8 mph after 3 am.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........44     29     35     46     63     72
Weather cov.....                     S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).10     10     10     20     40     50
Temp............48     45     43     41     38     36
RH..............51     55     57     59     67     82
20 ft wind......W 16   W 13   W 12   W 9    W 6    S 5
20 ft wind gust.19
Mix hgt (ft)....3400   500    700    700    600    500
Transport wind..W 25   W 13   W 10   W 9    W 6    SE 6
Haines index....2      2      3      3      3      3

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Rain showers
                    likely in the morning, then rain showers in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......80 percent.
Begin/end of pcpn...
Max temperature.....Around 49.
Min humidity........82 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 6 to 15 mph shifting to the
                    southwest around 16 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 9 to 16 mph shifting to the southwest
                    around 16 mph late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........78     86     88     89     91     92
Weather cov.....LIKELY LIKELY LIKELY DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).60     70     70     80     80     80
Temp............36     37     41     45     47     48
RH..............89     92     89     86     86     83
20 ft wind......SE 6   SE 9   SE 9   SE 13  S 15   S 15
20 ft wind gust.                            17     17
Mix hgt (ft)....500    500    600    600    500    600
Transport wind..E 9    E 9    E 10   E 13   SE 15  S 16
Haines index....3      3      3      3      3      3

$$
Forecaster...Hammond
Requested by...Don Tucker
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2109647.0/BTV
.DELDT 04/19/21
.FormatterVersion 1.0.26
.EMAIL nhnecc@firenet.gov,nhneccc@firenet.gov


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