Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Cheyenne, WY

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000
FNUS75 KCYS 212045
FWSCYS

Spot Forecast for MULLEN FIRE...BLM
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
245 PM MDT Mon Sep 21 2020

If conditions become un-representative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (307) 772-2227, if you have questions or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

Warm and dry conditions continue through the afternoon as winds
have remained light out of the west around 10 mph with diurnal
cumulus mainly to the south. With remaining daylight heating, some
of these cumulus may tower some with nearby virga though lightning
potential remains low today. Winds will turn light and variable
through the overnight and much of Tuesday. Light chance of showers
and thunderstorms possible Tuesday afternoon though wetting
chances remain low with virga, gusty outflow winds, and period of
lightning as main concern for the fire area. Looking beyond
forecast period, elevated to critical fire weather concerns for
gusty winds and low RHs return Thursday and Friday across the
area.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny. Smoke.
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 68.
Min humidity........17 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 9 to 12 mph.
Mixing height.......11300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 14 to 17 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (169000 knot-ft).
Haines Index........5 moderate potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........8   7   6
Weather cov.....DEF DEF DEF
Weather type....SMK SMK SMK
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1
Temp............68  68  67
RH..............17  17  18
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..12  10  9
20 FT wind gust.
Mix hgt (kft)...11  11  11
Transp wind dir.W   W   W
Transp wind spd.17  15  14
Haines index....5   5   5
SDspl kt-ft/1000169 169 169

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear. Smoke.
CWR.................1 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 43.
Max humidity........49 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 6 to 7 mph shifting to the
                    northeast 5 to 6 mph early in the evening, then
                    becoming light late in the evening becoming
                    southeast 5 to 6 mph late in the evening.
Mixing height.......2100-3200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 8 to 12 mph decreasing to 5 to 9 mph
                    early in the evening.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (6700 knot-ft).
Haines Index........4 to 5 OR low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........6   5   4   3   3   2   2   2   2   2   3   3
Weather cov.....DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF
Weather type....SMK SMK SMK SMK SMK SMK SMK SMK SMK SMK SMK SMK
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............65  61  58  54  52  51  50  48  46  45  43  43
RH..............19  22  25  28  31  32  33  37  40  41  47  49
20 FT wind dir..W   NW  NE  NE  E   E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..7   6   6   5   3   5   5   5   6   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.
Mix hgt (kft)...3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1
Transp wind dir.W   SW  SE  E   E   SE  SE  SE  S   S   SW  SW
Transp wind spd.12  8   6   5   5   5   6   7   7   8   8   9
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   4   4   4   4   4   4
SDspl kt-ft/10007   7   7   7   7   7   12  12  12  12  12  12

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny then becoming partly cloudy. Smoke
                    through the day. Chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
CWR.................8 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1200, then 3.
Max temperature.....Around 69.
Min humidity........21 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds around 6 mph shifting to the
                    southwest 6 to 8 mph late in the morning, then
                    becoming light late in the afternoon. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms in
                    the afternoon.
Mixing height.......2400 ft AGL increasing to 13200 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....West 9 to 14 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (20600 knot-ft) increasing to excellent
                    (145100 knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 OR low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........4   4   4   5   14  23  32  38  44  51  53  56
Weather cov.....DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF
Weather type....SMK SMK SMK SMK SMK SMK SMK SMK SMK SMK SMK SMK
Tstm cov........                        CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   10  10  10  10  10  10
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   3   3   3   3   3   3
Temp............44  46  49  54  59  64  68  69  68  67  65  64
RH..............49  47  44  36  30  25  21  21  22  23  26  27
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  S   S   SW  W   W   W   W   SW  SE
20 FT wind spd..6   6   6   6   6   6   6   7   8   8   6   3
20 FT wind gust.                                            4
Mix hgt (kft)...2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.4 13  13  13  13  13  13
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.9   9   9   9   10  12  13  13  14  14  13  12
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   5   5   5   5   5   5
SDspl kt-ft/100021  21  21  21  21  21  145 145 145 145 145 145

$$
Forecaster...Mokry
Requested by...DELAY
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2012813.1/CYS
.DELDT 09/21/20
.EMAIL wycpc@firenet.gov,jerod.delay@usda.gov



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