Suppression Forecast
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000
FNUS74 KEPZ 251809
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Headwaters...US forest service
National Weather Service Santa Teresa NM/El Paso TX
Issued by National Weather Service ALBUQUERQUE NM
1209 PM MDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Forecast is based on request time of 1200 MDT on April 25.

If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the El Paso
National Weather Service Forecast Office.

.DISCUSSION...
A backdoor cold front moving from northeast to southwest through
the area, will continue to bring breezy east-southeast winds to
southern NM and far west TX today. Winds will weaken overnight and
Thursday, before another upper level trough passing by to the
northeast, sends a second stronger cold front across Thursday night.
This feature will bring a bit more moisture to the area, than the
first front and help fuel storm activity mainly Friday mainly west
of the Rio Grande and over the Sacramento Mtns. Activity will be
high based, with dry lightning and gusty downburst winds, as the
main impacts.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Scattered afternoon cumulus (25-40 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 73.
Min humidity........10 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 7 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......12500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West around 9 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good (103900 knot-ft).
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........10     20     40
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1
Temp............67     72     73
RH..............14     12     10
20 ft wind......SW 6   SW 8   W 10
20 ft wind gust.10     10     15
Mix hgt (ft)....12500  12500  12500
Transport wind..W 9    W 9    W 9
Haines index....4      5      5
Vent Rate.......VYGD   VYGD   VYGD

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (45-55 percent) then becoming
                    clear (0-5 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 38.
Max humidity........40 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 7 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......11800 ft AGL decreasing to 0 ft AGL after
                    midnight.
Transport winds.....West 3 to 5 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good (102600 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
                    (0 knot-ft) after midnight.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      5 PM   7 PM   9 PM   11 PM  1 AM   3 AM
Sky (%).........50     40     30     25     5      0
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............69     63     54     49     46     42
RH..............10     15      25     30      35     40
20 ft wind......W 10   W 9    NW 8   W 7    W 7    W 8
20 ft wind gust.15     15     10     10     10     10
Mix hgt (ft)....11800  11800  11800  BLW100 BLW100 BLW100
Transport wind..W 10   W 9    NW 7   W 5    W 3    W 3
Haines index....5      5      5      4      4      4
Vent Rate.......VYGD   VYGD   VYGD   POOR   POOR   POOR

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-5 percent) then becoming partly cloudy
                    (40-50 percent). A few cloud buildups or an
                    isolated dry thunderstorm in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................2.
Max temperature.....Around 72.
Min humidity........10 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 7 to 12 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......6200 ft AGL increasing to 13900 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....Northwest 10 to 11 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (51100 knot-ft) increasing to very good
                    (115600 knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      5 AM      8 AM      11 AM     2 PM
Sky (%).........0         15        38        45
Weather cov.....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      NONE      ISOLD
Chc of pcpn (%).0         10        10        10
LAL.............1         1         1         2
Temp............38        46        65        70
RH..............40        35        20        12
20 FT wind......W 7G10    NW 7      NW 10     NW 10
Mix hgt (ft)....6200      6200      13900     13900
Transport wind..SW 2      W 5       NW 10     NW 10
Haines index....4         4         5         5
Vent Rate.......FAIR      FAIR      VYGD      VYGD

$$

Requested by...Silver city interagency dispatch
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1807734.1/EPZ
.EMAIL nmsdc@fs.fed.us


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