Spot Forecast
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FNUS74 KEPZ 141935
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Turkeyfeather...U.S. Forest Service
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
135 PM MDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0700 MDT on July 15.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Another round of scattered storms is on tap for Tuesday near the
fire. Isolated storms will still bring typical hazards, including
sudden and erratic gusty winds, frequent lightning, and brief
heavy rainfall. Outflows from distant storms could result in
sudden wind shifts. Similar conditions will be seen on Wednesday
before moisture begins ticking up on Thursday. Localized and heavy
rainfall over recently burned areas could result in flash
flooding.

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent) then becoming mostly
                    cloudy (65-75 percent). Thunderstorms likely
                    and chance of rain showers early in the
                    afternoon. Rain showers and thunderstorms late
                    in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......75 percent.
Max temperature.....76-82.
Min humidity........27 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest around 5 mph in
                    the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......10200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West around 7 mph shifting to the north around
                    8 mph in the late morning and early afternoon,
                    then shifting to the west around 12 mph late in
                    the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (16700 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to good (81500 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.

TIME (MDT)      7 AM   9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
Sky (%).........23     18     18     61     82     82
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   CHANCE DEFNTE DEFNTE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   LIKELY DEFNTE DEFNTE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      10     10     60     80     80
Temp............51     66     77     79     74     69
RH..............75     48     30     27     35     40
20 ft wind......W 2    W 3    W 3    SW 5   W 5    W 5
20 ft wind gust.8      10     10     13     13     13
Mix hgt (ft)....2800   2800   10200  10200  7500   7500
Transport wind..W 7    W 7    N 8    N 8    W 12   W 12
Vrate kt-ft/1K..17     17     82     82     67     67
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   GOOD   GOOD   GOOD   GOOD

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.THURSDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms. Lows around 50. Highs
in the upper 70s. Light winds.
.FRIDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms. Lows around 50. Highs
in the upper 70s. Light winds.
.SATURDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms. Lows around 50. Highs
in the upper 70s. Light winds.

$$
Forecaster...BREITREITER
Requested by...Donavan Albert
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2517936.0/EPZ
.DELDT 07/14/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL donavan_albert@firenet.gov,2025.turkeyfeather.plans@firenet.gov