Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FNUS74 KFWD 201023
FWSFWD

Spot Forecast for Caddo N.G. West Bois dArc Rx...US Forest Service, Caddo NG
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
523 AM CDT Wed Oct 20 2021

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CDT on October 20.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...
Early morning clouds are beginning to filter into the area and
likely remain in place through the morning. By the afternoon,
mostly sunny skies and warm temperatures can be expected. Today`s
high will be 84 degrees. Wind speeds are likely to stay below 10
mph, but gusts up to around 20 mph will be possible. By tonight,
winds will become light as a cold front approaches the region. The
front will likely hold off until after sunrise. A shower or two
cannot be ruled out but precipitation chances remain below 10%.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 84.
Min humidity........58 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 7 to 9 mph. Gusts up to 20 mph
                    early in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......3800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 7 to 20 mph becoming 10 to 17 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........26  36  35  41  48  48  44  44
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............69  72  75  79  81  82  82  82
RH..............89  83  78  68  63  59  59  58
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..8   9   9   9   8   8   8   7
20 FT wind gust.14  14  16  14  14  14  12  11
Mix hgt (kft)...1.5 1.8 2.3 2.7 3.4 3.6 3.8 3.6
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.21  20  20  17  16  13  10  12
Haines index....4   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (55-65 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (40-50 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 58.
Max humidity........88 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds around 6 mph early in the evening
                    becoming light, then becoming north around 5
                    mph overnight becoming light becoming south
                    around 5 mph after 3 am becoming light.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 6 to 8 mph shifting to the northwest 5 to
                    10 mph overnight, then shifting to the south
                    around 14 mph overnight shifting to the north
                    12 to 15 mph after 3 am.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........17  16  15  20  31  31  32  43  49  59  62  45
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............81  78  74  71  70  69  68  67  66  65  64  61
RH..............59  67  77  83  83  87  87  87  88  85  82  82
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   NW  NW  N   N   N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..6   3   3   3   3   3   3   5   3   5   5   3
20 FT wind gust.10  6   7   7   7   7   7   7   7   8   10  7
Mix hgt (kft)...2.3 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7
Transp wind dir.SW  S   S   S   S   SW  W   NW  S   N   N   N
Transp wind spd.8   6   8   8   8   6   5   10  14  12  15  15
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   4

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 80.
Min humidity........35 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........North winds around 5 mph early in the morning
                    becoming light, then becoming northeast 5 to 8
                    mph early in the morning.
Mixing height.......3100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northeast 5 to 9 mph shifting to the north 10
                    to 16 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........25  24  9   12  16  16  17  17  15  14  12  10
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............60  58  61  63  66  69  72  76  77  78  79  77
RH..............86  83  75  70  63  55  48  40  39  36  35  37
20 FT wind dir..N   N   N   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  N   N   N
20 FT wind spd..5   3   5   6   7   8   8   8   8   8   7   6
20 FT wind gust.10  4
Mix hgt (kft)...0.6 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.2 1.6 2.1 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.1 2.2
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   NE  N   N   N   N   NE  NE  NE
Transp wind spd.15  8   8   9   16  14  13  13  13  13  12  10
Haines index....4   4   4   4   3   3   4   4   4   4   3   3

$$
Forecaster...Hernandez
Requested by...Charles Davis
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2119775.0/FWD
.DELDT 10/20/21
.FormatterVersion 1.0.26
.EMAIL Charles.g.davis@usda.gov


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