Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Portland, ME

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FNUS71 KGYX 052307
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Spot Forecast for Lost Pond 1 Rx Burn...TNC/USFS
National Weather Service Gray ME
707 PM EDT Wed Oct 5 2022

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1900 EDT on October 05.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (207) 688-3224, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

Low pressure southeast of Maine will continue to slowly move
northeast tonight. Most of the shower activity associated with
this low will remain concentrated along the coast this evening and
overnight, but a few stray showers cannot be ruled out through the
evening and early overnight hours near the ignition zone. Winds
remain light and variable tonight into Thursday, with RH values
decreasing toward the upper 40 percent range early afternoon as
temperatures recover. Dry conditions continue Thurs night as the
low moves into the Canadian Maritimes. The next chance of rain
comes Friday afternoon as a cold front moves through New England.
A chance of thunder will accompany these showers.

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
CWR.................18 percent decreasing to 0 percent early in the
                    morning.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 70.
Min humidity........49 percent.
Dewpoint............47 increasing to 51 late in the morning.
Heat Index...70.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Mixing height.......2700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 1 to 3 mph shifting to the southwest
                    around 3 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (500 knot-ft).
LVORI...............6 in the morning and early afternoon.
ADI.................1 in the morning and early afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........18  18  18  18  18  18  6   6   6   6   6   6
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........NO  NO  NO  NO  NO  NO  NO  NO  NO  NO  NO  NO
CWR.............20  20  0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............47  45  46  52  60  64  66  68  70  70  69  69
Dewpoint........46  45  46  48  49  50  50  50  50  51  51  52
RH..............96  100 100 86  67  60  56  52  49  51  53  55
Aparnt tmp (F)..47  45  46  52  60  64  66  68  70  70  69  69
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..2   1   1   1   1   1   2   2   3   3   3   3
20 FT wind gust.5   2   2   2   2   2   5   5   7   7   7   7
Mix hgt (kft)...0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.5 2.1 2.3 2.7 2.6 2.0 0.9
Transp wind dir.NW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   SW
Transp wind spd.2   2   2   2   1   1   2   2   2   3   3   3
LVORI...........9   10  6   4   4   3   3   2   M   M   M   M
ADI.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   M   M   M   M
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..1   1   1   1   1   2   4   5   5   8   6   3
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.THURSDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers after 3 am.
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 50.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Dewpoint............51.
Heat Index...65.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 2 to 3 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (500 knot-ft).
LVORI...............MISSING.
ADI.................MISSING.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........33  33  33  33  33  33  78  78  78  78  78  78
Weather cov.....                                    SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....                                    RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........NO  NO  NO  NO  NO  NO  NO  NO  NO  NO  NO  NO
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............65  62  57  56  54  52  52  51  51  51  50  50
Dewpoint........52  52  52  51  51  50  50  50  50  50  50  50
RH..............63  70  83  83  90  93  93  96  96  96  100 100
Aparnt tmp (F)..65  62  57  56  54  52  52  51  51  51  50  50
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..2   2   1   1   2   2   2   1   1   1   2   2
20 FT wind gust.5   5   2   2   5   5   5   2   2   2   5   5
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.3   3   2   2   2   3   3   3   3   3   2   2
LVORI...........M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M
ADI.............M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M
Haines index....4   4   5   5   5   5   5   5   4   4   4   4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers in the morning, then chance of
                    rain showers and slight chance of thunderstorms
                    in the afternoon.
CWR.................7 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1300, then 2.
Max temperature.....Around 70.
Min humidity........61 percent.
Dewpoint............51 increasing to 54 in the late morning and
                    afternoon.
Heat Index...69.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 5 to 8 mph late
                    in the morning. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......5100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 3 to 12 mph increasing to 15 to 17
                    mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (800 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (66600 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
LVORI...............MISSING.
ADI.................MISSING.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (EDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........69  69  69  69  69  69  46  46  46  46  46  46
Weather cov.....SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........NO  NO  NO  NO  NO  NO  SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
CWR.............0   0   10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   2   2   2   2   2
Temp............51  51  51  55  61  65  66  68  69  68  67  66
Dewpoint........50  50  51  53  55  56  56  56  56  55  53  52
RH..............96  96  100 93  81  73  70  65  63  63  61  61
Aparnt tmp (F)..51  51  51  55  61  65  66  68  69  68  67  66
20 FT wind dir..W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W
20 FT wind spd..2   2   1   2   3   5   5   6   7   7   8   8
20 FT wind gust.5   5   2   6   9   12  13  15  17  17  18  18
Mix hgt (kft)...0.3 0.3 0.4 0.9 1.4 1.9 3.0 4.1 5.1 4.3 3.4 2.6
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W
Transp wind spd.3   5   6   6   6   6   8   12  15  16  17  17
LVORI...........M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M
ADI.............M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M   M
Haines index....4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..1   1   2   4   6   10  22  42  67  62  52  39
Ventrate Cat....PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  PR  FR  GD  GD  FR  PR

$$
Forecaster...CORNWELL
Requested by...Jeff Lougee
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2219161.0/GYX
.DELDT 10/05/22
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL jlougee@tnc.org


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