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923
FNUS76 KMFR 240354
FWSMFR

Spot Forecast for 2018 LEASE LAND BURN...USFS
National Weather Service Medford OR
854 PM PDT Wed May 23 2018

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1300 PDT on May 24.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Showers will diminish overnight but the probability
of showers and thunderstorms will increase again on Thursday
afternoon and evening as an upper level low offshore from
California continues to send abundant moisture in a southerly flow
aloft. The low will move inland Friday with weaker instability
but an increase in moisture for a wet, cooler day and evening.
There is the potential for gusty outflow winds, heavy rain, and
small hail in and near any thunderstorm. Drier weather with a
warming trend is expected Saturday into early next week.


.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy then mostly cloudy late in the
                    afternoon. A slight chance of showers and
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 74.
Min humidity........35-40 percent.
Eye level winds.....East winds 2 to 4 mph shifting to southwest
                    3 to 7 mph in the afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds around 5 mph shifting to
                    southwest 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Gusty
                    and erratic winds expected near any
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL increasing to 9000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast around 7 mph becoming southwest 12
                    mph.
CWR.................10 percent.
LAL.................2.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and
                    thunderstorms in the evening, then numerous
                    showers after midnight.
Min temperature.....Around 47.
Max humidity........85-90 percent.
Eye level winds.....West winds 3 to 7 mph increasing to 6 to 12
                    mph in the evening then becoming light.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 10 mph early in the evening
                    becoming northwest 10 to 20 mph in the evening
                    then light late. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near any thunderstorms in the evening.
Mixing height.......9000 ft AGL decreasing to 1200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 12 mph becoming west 5 mph.
CWR.................55 percent.
LAL.................3.

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms.
Max temperature.....Around 62.
Min humidity........53-58 percent.
Eye level winds.....Light southwest winds becoming southwest 6 to
                    10 mph by noon then west 8 to 12 mph with gusts
                    to 20 mph in the afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........Light southwest winds becoming southwest 10 to
                    15 mph by noon then west 15 to 20 mph with gusts
                    to 30 mph in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near any thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......1200 ft AGL increasing to 5000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West around 8 mph increasing to northwest 22 mph.
CWR.................65 percent.
LAL.................3.

$$
Forecaster...WEYGAND
Requested by...CHRIS BUNKER
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1810410.3/MFR