Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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Spot Forecast for Ordway Rx...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
644 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 CDT on September 21.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...South winds expected through the day as RH falls to
about 40 percent. A few showers could develop nearby mid morning,
but currently expecting them to the east.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny.
Temperature.........58 at ignition...Max 80.
RH..................81 percent at ignition...Min 41 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds south at 6 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    Southwest winds 5 to 9 mph with gusts to around
                    16 mph.
Mixing height.......700 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 700-2500 ft
                    AGL increasing to 3000-4700 ft AGL early in the
                    afternoon, then increasing to 4500-5500 ft AGL
                    late in the afternoon decreasing to 3500 ft AGL
                    late in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 17 to 25 mph decreasing to 8 to 14
                    mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing winds........Southwest 17 to 25 mph decreasing to 8 to 14
                    mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair /15600 knot-ft/ at ignition. Max...good
                    /42700 knot-ft/.
Haines Index........6 or high at ignition...max 6.

TIME (CDT)      7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM
Temp............58  60  62  66  70  73  76  77  79  80  79  77
RH..............81  80  78  70  61  57  52  48  44  41  44  48
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..6   8   9   9   8   7   7   6   6   7   6   5
20 FT wind gust.    10  14  16  13  11  10  11  12  13  11  10
Mix hgt (kft)...0.7 1.0 1.2 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.9 4.7 5.5 4.5 3.5
Transp wind dir.S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.25  23  20  17  14  12  9   8   8   9   10  12
Mixing wind dir.S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Mixing wind spd.25  23  20  17  14  12  9   8   8   9   10  12
Haines index....6   6   5   5   5   5   5   5   6   6   6   6
SDspl kt-ft/100016  18  20  22  23  24  24  31  37  43  37  32

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear.
Temperature.........Min 55.
RH..................Max 93 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Mixing height.......1000-2500 ft AGL decreasing to 300 ft AGL in
                    the late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....Southeast 6 to 13 mph.
Mixing winds........Southeast 6 to 13 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (1200-26200 knot-ft).

TIME (CDT)      7 PM   9 PM   11 PM  1 AM   3 AM   5 AM
Temp............74     67     63     61     58     56
RH..............53     65     72     78     86     90
20 ft wind......S 4    S 4    S 3    S 3    S 3    SE 3
20 ft wind gust.6      5      5      5      5      5
Mix hgt (ft)....2500   1000   300    300    300    300
Transport wind..S 13   S 9    S 6    S 6    S 7    SE 7
Mixing wind.....S 13   S 9    S 6    S 6    S 7    SE 7
Haines index....6      5      5      5      5      5
SDspl kt-ft/100026     10     1      1      1      1

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
Temperature.........Max 81.
RH..................Min 47 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southeast 5 to 7 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......300-800 ft AGL increasing to 2500-4200 ft AGL
                    late in the morning, then increasing to
                    5500-5900 ft AGL early in the afternoon
                    decreasing to 2300-3900 ft AGL late in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southeast 6 to 9 mph.
Mixing winds........Southeast 6 to 9 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (1200-46600 knot-ft).
Haines Index........4 to 5 OR or low to or moderate.

TIME (CDT)      7 AM   9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
Temp............55     62     72     79     81     79
RH..............90     81     61     50     47     50
20 ft wind......SE 4   SE 3   SE 5   SE 6   SE 7   S 6
20 ft wind gust.6      5      6      10     10     10
Mix hgt (ft)....300    600    2500   5900   5600   3900
Transport wind..SE 6   SE 7   SE 7   SE 8   S 9    S 9
Mixing wind.....SE 6   SE 7   SE 7   SE 8   S 9    S 9
Haines index....4      4      4      5      4      4
SDspl kt-ft/10001      4      17     43     45     33

$$
Forecaster...Borghoff
Requested by...Matthew Graeve
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2012828.0/MPX
.EMAIL mgraeve@tnc.org



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