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000
FNUS75 KRIW 191616
FWSRIW

Spot Forecast for Holmes Cave...USFS BTF
National Weather Service Riverton WY
1016 AM MDT Sat Sep 19 2020

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1000 MDT on September 19.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...A cold front will sweep across the fire area this
morning. This front will bring showers that will continue through the
day. There is a good chance of a wetting rain with up to a tenth of an
inch. Temperatures will remain steady in the 40s today, which
will keep humidity levels above 40 percent. Southwest winds will
be breezy from the west northwest along and behind the front.
The rain and wind will clear out much of the smoke and transport
it to the east of the fire.

...Thunderstorms imply strong gusty and erratic winds...
...Haines index is high level haines both day and night...

FORECASTER...Lipson

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (80-90 percent). Rain showers through the
                    day, beginning around 1100. Isolated thunderstorms
                    in the afternoon embedded within the area of showers
                    after 1400. The rain will begin to clear out
                    much of the smoke by 1200.
Max temperature.....Temperatures rising to 50 by 1100, before falling
                    through the 40s during the rest of the day today.
Min humidity........46-48 percent, then rising through the 50s this
                    afternoon.
20-foot winds.......West northwest 10 to 20 mph. Gusts of 30 mph after
                    1500. Winds occasionally variable at lesser speeds.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near any
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Ridge top winds.....West 15 to 25 mph.
LAL.................1 until 1200, then 3.
Chc of wetting rain.27 percent increasing to 56 percent in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......4700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 25 to 40 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair, becoming excellent.

TIME (MDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........89  92  94  93  90  86  81  75
Weather cov.....DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF NUM
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........        ISO ISO ISO SCT SCT SCT
CWR.............30  30  60  60  60  60  60  60
LAL.............1   1   3   3   3   3   3   3
Temp............50  51  49  50  51  51  51  49
RH..............54  54  63  58  56  54  52  56
20 FT wind dir..SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..6   8   8   9   10  11  10  11
20 FT wind gust.13  20  20  17  16  17  16  14
Mix hgt (kft)...1.9 1.9 3.1 3.1 3.1 4.9 4.9 4.9
Transp wind dir.S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.17  17  22  22  22  20  20  20
Haines index....4   4   3   3   3   3   3   3
SDspl kt-ft/100029  29  58  58  58  83  83  83

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Scattered rain
                    showers in the evening til 2000. Isolated rain
                    showers overnight. The rain will mix with some
                    light snow by 0100.
Min temperature.....32-35.
Max humidity........88-91 percent.
20-foot winds.......West northwest 15 to 25 mph. There will be some
                    variability in the wind direction at lesser speeds
                    through 2100 in the evening.
Ridge top winds.....West 15 to 30 mph.
LAL.................1.
Chc of wetting rain.22 percent decreasing to zero percent
                    overnight.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......1200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 20 to 30 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good,becoming poor.

TIME (MDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........69  63  59  57  59  62  65  66  65  63  59  55
Weather cov.....SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT ARS ARS ARS ARS ARS ARS
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  SMK SMK SMK SMK SMK SMK
Tstm cov........
CWR.............20  20  20  20  20  20  0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............2   2   2   2   2   2   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............46  43  41  41  39  38  37  36  36  36  35  35
RH..............71  70  70  70  70  76  89  85  82  82  82  78
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..12  7   6   8   7   8   10  6   6   7   6   5
20 FT wind gust.15  12  9   12  9   10  13  8   9   12  8   6
Mix hgt (kft)...3.1 3.1 3.1 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.1
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.20  20  20  15  15  15  15  15  15  12  12  12
Haines index....3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
SDspl kt-ft/100052  52  52  19  19  19  17  17  17  11  11  11

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent) then becoming
                    mostly sunny (10-20 percent).
Max temperature.....54-57.
Min humidity........36-38 percent.
20-foot winds.......West northwest 10 to 15 mph.
Ridge top winds.....West 10 to 15 mph.
LAL.................1.
Chc of wetting rain.Zero percent.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......5500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 13 to 17 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor becoming excellent.

TIME (MDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........51  48  45  39  29  18  9   4   1   1   1   1
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
LAL.............1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp............34  36  37  40  43  46  49  51  52  54  53  52
RH..............82  79  75  67  57  51  52  42  41  36  35  38
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..5   5   5   6   6   7   8   9   9   10  9   9
20 FT wind gust.6   8   10  12  14  14  16  16  17  17  17  17
Mix hgt (kft)...0.9 0.9 0.9 2.3 2.3 2.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 5.7 5.7 5.7
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.14  14  14  13  13  13  16  16  16  17  17  17
Haines index....2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2
SDspl kt-ft/100011  11  11  25  25  25  61  61  61  86  86  86

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Clear. Lows in the lower 30s. Winds generally less than 10 mph.
.MONDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the lower 60s.
Winds generally less than 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...
Partly cloudy with chance of showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the lower 60s.
Winds generally less than 10 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the upper 50s.
Winds generally less than 10 mph.

$$
Forecaster...Lipson
Requested by...Teton Dispatch
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2012691.2/RIW
.DELDT 09/19/20
.EMAIL wytdc@firenet.gov