610
FZAK80 PAFC 130030
ICEAFC

Sea Ice Forecast for Western and Arctic Alaskan Coastal Waters
National Weather Service - Alaska Sea Ice Program
330 PM AKST Monday 13 January 2026


FORECAST VALIDSaturday 18 January 2026


ANALYSIS CONFIDENCEModerate.


SYNOPSISHigh pressure stretches from the North Slope, Beaufort Sea,
Chukchi Sea, and Bering Strait region. Weak and broad low pressure
sits over the entire Gulf of Alaska. A stronger developing system
pushes inland toward Yakutat late Tuesday, while another pushes
across the Alaska Peninsula on early Thursday into inland Bristol
Bay, then progresses over the Bering Strait on Saturday. Another low
pressure develops in the southern Bering Sea on Saturday morning and
moves toward Saint Matthew Island on Saturday afternoon.


-BEAUFORT SEA-


PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ510-Eastern US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-
PKZ814-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island out to 15 nm-
PKZ815-Flaxman Island to Demarcation Point out to 15 nm-
PKZ859-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett from 45 to 80 nm-
PKZ860-Cape Halkett to Flaxman Island from 45 to 80 nm-


Ice covered.


FORECAST FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast
confidence is high. Southwest winds continue through Thursday,
diminishing through the week. Areas of established shorefast ice
should remain intact with the southwesterly winds, but it is
possible to see some areas of breakoff mainly from Harrison Bay
eastward.


-CHUKCHI SEA-


PKZ500-Western US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ505-Central US Arctic Offshore-
PKZ807-Wales to Cape Espenberg out to 15 nm-
PKZ808-Cape Espenberg to Motherwood Point out to 10 nm-
PKZ809-Motherwood Point to Cape Krusenstern out to 10 nm-
PKZ810-Cape Krusenstern to Cape Thompson out to 15 nm-
PKZ811-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort out to 15 nm-
PKZ812-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin out to 15 nm-
PKZ813-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett out to 15 nm-
PKZ855-Kotzebue Sound greater than 10 nm-
PKZ856-Wales to Cape Thompson greater than 15 nm-
PKZ857-Cape Thompson to Cape Beaufort from 15 to 85 nm-
PKZ858-Cape Beaufort to Point Franklin from 15 to 85 nm-
PKZ859-Point Franklin to Cape Halkett from 15 to 75 nm-


Ice covered.


FORECAST FOR THE CHUKCHI SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast
confidence is high. Light northwest winds continue through Thursday,
then strengthen and turn northerly through Sunday. Shorefast ice
along south-facing coastlines will be vulnerable to break-off,
especially from Point Hope through Cape Krusenstern. A large polynya
will continue to form in that same area, which will freeze fairly
quickly away from the shore. Otherwise, expect ice to move southward
10-20 nm/day in this region. These winds should also compress ice
against the Wales to Espenberg coastline and promote the development
of shorefast ice in the area.


-BERING SEA-


PKZ763-Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait out to 15 nm-
PKZ765-North and West of Nunivak Island-
PKZ801-Etolin Strait to Dall Point out to 15 nm-
PKZ802-Dall Point to Kwikpak Pass out to 15 nm-
PKZ803-Kwikpak Pass to Cape Stephens out to 15 nm-
PKZ804-Cape Stephens to Moses Point out to 15 nm-
PKZ805-Moses Point to Sledge Island out to 15 nm-
PKZ806-Sledge Island to Wales out to 15 nm-
PKZ850-Etolin Strait to Kwemeluk Pass from 15 to 90 nm-
PKZ852-Norton Sound greater than 15 nm-
PKZ853-Kwemeluk Pass to Kwikpak Pass from 15 to 90 nm-


Ice covered.


PKZ760-Bristol Bay greater than 15 nm-
PKZ761-Bristol Bay from Port Heiden to Cape Chichagof out to 15 nm-
PKZ762-Bristol Bay from Cape Chichagof to Cape Pierce out to 15 nm-
PKZ764-Kuskokwim Delta from 15 to 80 nm-
PKZ767-Saint Matthew Island Waters-
PKZ816-South Side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-
PKZ817-North Side of Saint Lawrence Island out to 15 nm-
PKZ851-Southwest of Saint Lawrence Island from 15 to 100 nm-
PKZ854-Sledge Island to Wales greater than 15 nm-


The main ice edge in the Bering Sea extends from near 55 58N 161
22W to 57 5N 159 41W to 58 1N 162 19W to 57 6N 163 16W to 57
21N 168 36W to 58 3N 171 14W to 62 13N 176 52W and continues
west in Russian waters. The ice edge is marginal strips of ice.


From land-based points in Alaska, the main ice edge in the Bering
Sea extends from 27 nm west of Port Moller to 37 nm northwest of
Port Heiden to 18 nm south of Cape Newenham to 100 nm south of Cape
Newenham to 30 nm north of Saint Paul Island to 155 nm southwest of
Gambell l and continues northwest in Russian waters. The ice edge is
marginal strips of ice.



FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence
is moderate. Along the ice edge, light north winds will continue
through Friday. Currently the ice edge is around 30 nm northeast of
Saint Paul Island. It is likely at this point that the marginal ice
zone encroaches on Saint Paul Island by Friday, but a low pressure
system moving through on Saturday will likely melt and push the edge
back to the north. If the edge does make it to Saint Paul Island it
would be the earliest date in the last 27 years.

Currently, the ice edge is running up against warmer sea surface
temperatures in the central Bering Sea. Expect the winds to strip
ice away from the main pack into a zone of low concentration
marginal ice strips. These strips will move southwest in the warmer
waters and partially melt.  Overall, expect the main ice edge to
move southwestward 5-10 nm/day.





-COOK INLET-


PKZ740-Cook Inlet North of Kalgin Island-

Ice covered.

PZK741-Kachemak Bay-
PKZ742-Cook Inlet Kalgin Island to Point Bede-


The main ice edge in Cook Inlet extends from near Anchor Point to
Augustine Volcano. There is also ice from the northern Homer Spit
along the northern coast of Kachemak Bay.



FORECAST FOR COOK INLET (DAYS 1 through 5)...Forecast confidence is
moderate. Winds will remain light northerly through Wednesday, then
turn southerly, up the Inlet briefly. Expect tides to be the main
driver of ice movement through Wednesday.

Thursday through Saturday, a Chinook-type pattern is setting up with
a much warmer air mass moving over the area. Stronger winds will
come through Turnagain Arm along with warmer air to help melt some
of the newer ice in the upper Inlet. Expect the winds and warmer air
to melt some of the ice and retreat the edge slightly, mainly
melting the ice south of Kalgin Island. Overall expect a retreat of
the ice edge 10-20 nm through Saturday.


Please note that ice motion in Cook Inlet is highly influenced by
tides.


&&
Lawson