Marine Interpretation Message
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000
AGPN40 KWNM 192127
MIMPAC

Marine Weather Discussion for N Pacific Ocean
NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC
227 PM PDT Sun Aug 19 2018

.FORECAST DISCUSSION...Major features/winds/seas/significant
.weather for the North Pacific N of 30N and E of 150W.

High pressure still to the west of the region is on track to
slowly shift south while weakening in the short term and then re-
develop to the west and strengthen as it extends its ridge into
the northern waters. Latest GOES16 RGB Geocolor satellite images
show mostly few warm clouds across the region and also depicts
cyclonic circulation southeast of the central Aleutian Islands.
Latest NCEP weather map has high pressure to the west of the
region with one center 1032 MB 240 NM west of the north
Washington outer offshore waters. Inland trough across California
stretches from low pressure 1004 MB over southern California.
another trough is across the Vancouver island. Pressure gradient
is fairly relaxed across the region and maximum winds are 25 kt
over the far northern waters.

At 500 MB, area of high pressure extends across the central
California state while a weak trough with some energy covers the
PZ5 zones. In the short term, a ridge to the west of the region
will force the energy over the northern waters to move east
inland as it moves east. The ridge will persist to the west of
the region through most of the forecast period and the resultant
surface features will remain weak.

The models GFS/UKMETHR/ECMWFHR/CMC/NAM have initialized well the
latest synoptic surface observations. The models are also in a
good agreement on keeping high pressure to the west of the
region. There are small variations in the extended period mainly
on the strength of the inland trough along California but models
agree on keeping winds below gale force threshold through the
forecast period. Will continue with GFS for winds.

.SEAS...They range between 6 and 9 ft over the central and
northern waters with a peak at 10 ft over the Washington waters
and they range between 4 and 6 ft over the southern waters. Jason
III pass about 0827Z missed the area with larger seas showed
relatively large seas over the northern waters. NWW3 and
ECMWFWAVE models fit well the observed seas pattern over the
offshore waters and also over the high seas. Both wave models
have quite consistent in previous runs and they continue to agree
well in the short term on maintaining a similar seas pattern
with peaks at 11 ft. Will just stay with ENP for the seas grids.


.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...n/a.


.WARNINGS...Preliminary.

.PZ5 Washington/Oregon Waters...
     None.

.PZ6 California Waters...
     None.

$$

.Forecaster Musonda. Ocean Prediction Center.


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