Marine Interpretation Message
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787
AGPN40 KWNM 261358
MIMPAC

Marine Weather Discussion for N Pacific Ocean
NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC
658 AM PDT Sat May 26 2018

.FORECAST DISCUSSION...Major features/winds/seas/significant
.weather for the North Pacific N of 30N and E of 150W.

No changes are planned for the morning update. The 06z models
remain in good agreement with the previous 00z models. The 12z
sea state analysis indicated that the Wavewatch and ECMWF WAM
matched up well with the observations over the offshore and
coastal waters. Further west, the ECMWF WAM values were more in
line with obs, and used the ECMWF WAM for the analysis.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

06Z NCEP final surface analysis shows a weak low near Vancouver
Island with a dissipating cold front trailing across the PZ5
waters. Otherwise high pressure remains centered W of the central
PZ6 waters near 35N 143W with a ridge extending NE to just W of
the PZ5 waters. ASCAT-A misses much of the waters and ASCAT-B is
not available.

00Z models continue with good agreement through the forecast
period, with only some minor subtle differences. These can easily
be resolved with some edits, so will continue the use of the 00Z
GFS for the majority of the forecast while blending in the 00Z
ECMWF with the GFS first sigma level winds for Mon into Wed.
Will also use the 06Z NAMnest for the areas near the coastal
waters in initial period as it matches a bit better with the
initial observations. Global models continue to agree on the gale
force winds on Tuesday and into Wed night in the central PZ6
waters. These will likely start earlier in adjacent coastal areas
and likely will extend into the offshore inner zones off central
California. Will keep the gale warnings in the offshores;
however, will limit the extent of the gales to the eastern most
portion of the zones.

.SEAS...00Z wave models remain in agreement, so will continue
the forecast with a 50/50 blend of the 00Z ECMWF WAM and the 00Z
WW3. Will make some small edits throughout.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A


.WARNINGS...Preliminary.

.PZ5 Washington/Oregon Waters...
     None.

.PZ6 California Waters...
.PZZ820...Inner Waters from Point St. George to Point Arena...
     Gale Possible Tuesday into Wednesday night.
.PZZ825...Inner Waters from Point Arena to Pigeon Point...
     Gale Possible Tuesday into Wednesday night.
.PZZ830...Inner Waters from Pigeon Point to Point Piedras Blancas...
     Gale Possible Tuesday night into Wednesday.

$$

.Forecaster Kosier/Bancroft. Ocean Prediction Center.



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