Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXHW01 KWNH 280644

Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
244 AM EDT Thu Sep 28 2023

Valid 00Z Fri Sep 29 2023 - 00Z Fri Oct 06 2023

The guidance agrees that a warm core high shifts northeast of
Hawaii and weakens with time as troughing aloft develops and
remains across Hawai`i from today onward. Trades should weaken
Sunday as a result, helped aloft by a front moving slowly through
the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument.  This will act to
lead to an increase in precipitable water values, which the 00z
GFS forecasts to peak on Saturday.  Showers will tend to focus
over the favorable windward/mountain areas but could become more
feisty this weekend due to the nearby upper level disturbances and
increased moisture/instability.


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