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000
FXUS01 KWBC 030744
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
343 AM EDT Tue Oct 03 2023

Valid 12Z Tue Oct 03 2023 - 12Z Thu Oct 05 2023

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Western Gulf Coast on Tuesday and over the Southern Plains and
Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley on Wednesday...

...There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of
the Central/Southern Plains on Tuesday and a Slight Risk over
parts of the Southern High Plains on Wednesday...

...Snow over parts of the highest elevations of Wyoming...

A front extending from the Northern Plains southward to the
Southern High Plains will slowly move eastward to the Upper Great
Lakes to the Southern High Plains by Thursday. Moisture will pool
along the boundary, producing showers and severe thunderstorms
over parts of the Plains. Therefore, the SPC has issued an
Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Central/Southern Plains through Wednesday morning. The hazards
associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Further, there
is an increased threat of hail two inches or greater over parts of
the Central/Southern Plains.

Moreover, moisture streaming onshore over the Western Gulf Coast
will produce showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain. Therefore,
the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts
of the Western Gulf Coast through Wednesday morning. The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the most
vulnerable.

The threat of severe thunderstorms decreases slightly on
Wednesday. The front will produce showers and thunderstorms from
the Upper Great Lakes southward to the Southern Plains. However,
the showers and thunderstorms will become severe over parts of
Northwestern Texas and southwestern Oklahoma. Therefore, the SPC
has issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Southern High Plains from Wednesday into Thursday morning. The
hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent
lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes.

Additionally, on Wednesday, the threat of excessive rainfall will
move from the Western Gulf Coast to northeastern Texas,
southeastern Oklahoma, southwestern Missouri, Western Arkansas,
and extreme northwestern Louisiana. Therefore, the WPC has issued
a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern
Plains and Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley from Wednesday into
Thursday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly
localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and
small streams the most vulnerable.

Meanwhile, upper-level troughing associated with the front will
aid in creating rain over parts of the Pacific Northwest, Northern
California, Northern Intermountain Region, and Northern Rockies on
Tuesday. The energy will also create snow at the highest
elevations over parts of Wyoming. On Wednesday, the lingering
upper-level troughing will keep rain and highest-elevation snow
over parts of the Northern Rockies.

Furthermore, the upper-level troughing over the Rockies will allow
temperatures to be 10 to 15 degrees below average over parts of
the Great Basin, the Northern Intermountain Region, and the
Northern Rockies. East of the upper-level troughing, upper-level
ridging extends from the Gulf Coast to the Upper Great Lakes that
will allow temperatures to be 15 to 25 degrees above normal over
parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes, Middle
Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, Lower Great Lakes, and the
Northeast.

Lastly, onshore flow off the Atlantic will aid in producing
showers and thunderstorms over parts of Florida from late Tuesday
into Thursday.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php
$$