203
FXUS21 KWNC 151747
PMDTHR
US Hazards Outlook
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT July 15 2025

SYNOPSIS: Multiple models indicate stronger mid-level high pressure across much
of the contiguous U.S. (CONUS) during the week-2 period compared to yesterday.
The center of the mid-level high is generally forecast across the Great Plains
and Mississippi Valley, although there are model differences regarding the
specific location of where the center is located and the intensity of this
high. This pattern supports increased chances of extreme heat to many areas
east of the Rockies.

HAZARDS

Slight risk of extreme heat for many parts of the CONUS east of the Rockies,
Wed-Tue, Jul 23-29.

DETAILED SUMMARY

FOR FRIDAY JULY 18 - TUESDAY JULY 22:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

FOR WEDNESDAY JULY 23 - TUESDAY JULY 29: The GEFS, ECENS, and CMCE ensemble
means show greater positive 500-hPa height anomalies forecast across much of
the CONUS compared to yesterday. The ECENS and CMCE indicate areas of the
Rockies with the greatest height departures, with surface high pressure
centered over the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley. The GEFS,
however, shows lower height departures that are spread broader, extending to
the Interior West.



The anticipated mid-level ridging elevates chances for above-normal
temperatures for much of the CONUS near the climatologically hottest time of
year for much of the country, excluding the West Coast. A slight risk of
extreme heat is designated for many areas east of the Rockies throughout the
entirety of week-2. This risk area is primarily based on the ECENS and CMCE
model guidance and tools based on good agreement between the two, and the ECENS
being favored in the mean week-2 temperature tools. Multiple calibrated heat
tools and Probabilistic Extremes Tools (PETs) show at least a 20% chance of air
temperatures and heat index values exceeding the 90th percentile across areas
east of the CONUS. Multiple tools indicate the greatest likelihood of extreme
heat across the Lower and Middle Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys and
Southeast during the middle of week-2. The National Blend of Models (NBM) show
near record daytime temperatures over the Tennessee Valley and near record
nighttime temperatures across many areas across the East.



Guidance from GEFS based tools continue to support a slight risk of extreme
heat for portions of the Interior West. However, the ECENS and CMCE height
pattern and signals for this heat potential are noticeably weaker. Due to high
uncertainty, no associated hazard is posted at this time but the area will be
monitored for potential addition of a hazard, if models can come into better
agreement.

FORECASTER: Melissa Ou

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