


Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
873 ACUS48 KWNS 090956 SWOD48 SPC AC 090954 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CST Sun Feb 09 2025 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Sabine Valley into Lower Mississippi Valley Vicinity... Precipitation appears likely to be ongoing within the warm advection zone near the cold front on Wednesday. The primary shortwave perturbation within the broader cyclonic flow aloft is expected to move from the southern Plains into the mid-Mississippi Valley by the afternoon. A weak surface wave will develop along the front and quickly move northeast. This overall pattern will not favor significant northward progression of Gulf moisture. With deep-layer shear remaining parallel to the boundary, a broad warm advection regime, and stronger ascent displaced northward, confidence in more than isolated disorganized severe storms is low. The intrusion of cold air into the Gulf on Friday is expected to be greater than earlier in the week. Portions of the northern Gulf are likely to be impacted with some potential the cold air to reach the central Gulf. By Friday afternoon, the next upper-level trough is forecast to reach the Southwest with a lee cyclone developing in eastern Colorado. With the low deepening as it moves into the Mid-South, rapid northward moisture return is possible within the region through the day Saturday. This pattern would support severe storms. Model guidance has had some consistency with the broad pattern evolution, but has continued to differ run to run with timing and intensity of key features. Further, given the colder air that will be in place prior to any moisture return, the overall quality of the airmass ahead of the upper trough is also not certain. Trends in guidance will continue to be monitored for this coming Saturday. ...Portions of the Southeast... As the surface low moves northeast, it is expected to deepen as it moves into the southern/central Appalachians on Thursday. This will push the cold front into Georgia and the Carolinas. A narrow warm-sector ahead of the front may destabilize enough for isolated strong to severe storms, but confidence in more widespread activity is low given the uncertain buoyancy and the increasingly northward-displace mid-level ascent. On Sunday, based on current guidance, a similar scenario to Thursday will occur. However, the trough/surface low are forecast to be stronger and there is greater potential for a larger warm sector. Uncertainty remains high this far in advance, however. ..Wendt.. 02/09/2025