Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS48 KWNS 150847
SPC AC 150845

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0345 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

Isolated to scattered large hail and isolated severe wind gusts are
evident on D4/Thursday from the Ozark Plateau into central TX. Low
probability severe may persist into D5-6, mainly across parts of TX,
with severe potential appearing negligible around D7-8.

A northern-stream mid/upper trough should shift east from the
Northwest into the Upper Midwest on D4. A more piecemeal eastward
evolution is progged into the weekend amid multiple embedded
impulses. The southern stream is expected to remain relatively weak
and quasi-zonal, although there are indications of lower-amplitude
impulses migrating through the flow.

The best potential for severe appears focused on D4. Both the 00Z
NAM/ECMWF hint at elevated convection developing across the central
Great Plains late D3 on Thursday morning within a strengthening
low-level warm theta-e advection regime south of the trough shifting
into the Upper Midwest. Robust diabatic heating is expected in the
warm-moist sector over the southern Great Plains, with the largest
buoyancy so far this week ahead of the dryline in TX.

As surface ridging noses down the High Plains, a lee cyclone will be
forced east-southeast into OK as a developing frontal wave.
Above-average agreement exists across guidance with surface-based
convective development along both the southwest/northeast-oriented
baroclinic zone and dryline. Primary uncertainty with southern
extent is the degree of deep-layer shear as wind profiles appear
weak to modest over most of the larger buoyancy plume. Have
delineated a 15 percent area where potential for a few supercells
and multicell clusters is evident on Thursday afternoon, with an
implied lower severe probability extending farther southwest through
much of central TX.

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