464
WTNT42 KNHC 030839
TCDAT2

Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL122024
500 AM AST Thu Oct 03 2024

After going through a period of rapid intensification, Kirk appears
to have stopped intensifying, at least temporarily, and there are
signs in satellite imagery that a dry slot has wrapped into the
circulation.  Subjective final-T numbers have decreased slightly
from TAFB and SAB, and the initial intensity is set at 105 kt, near
the CI numbers.

Kirk continues to move northwestward (315/9 kt), which should
continue for the next 36 hours while the hurricane moves along the
southwestern periphery of the subtropical high.  After 36 hours,
Kirk is forecast to recurve between the high and a deep-layer trough
over the western/central Atlantic, eventually moving northeastward
by late Sunday or Monday.  There is lower-than-normal spread among
the track guidance, including the global model ensembles, and
overall the new NHC track prediction is not changed much from the
previous advisory.

The hurricane is expected to move through a moist, low-shear
environment for the next 36 hours or so, with sea surface
temperatures actually warming by a degree or two up to 30 deg
Celsius.  If Kirk can avoid further intrusions of dry air into the
eye, then the environment should be able to support strengthening to
category 4 strength.  The NHC intensity forecast is near the top end
of the guidance during the short term.  After 36 hours, increasing
deep-layer shear is likely to induce a gradual weakening trend, but
interaction with a baroclinic energy source should help the storm to
maintain hurricane-force winds through the end of the forecast
period.  Based on thickness fields from the global models, Kirk is
now forecast to be extratropical by day 5.

Kirk is expected to grow in size and send out ocean swells across
the central and western Atlantic.  These swells will likely increase
the risk of dangerous surf and rip currents along the Leeward
Islands by Friday, Bermuda and the Greater Antilles by Saturday, and
the U.S. East Coast and the Bahamas by Sunday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0900Z 20.0N  45.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  03/1800Z 20.8N  46.2W  115 KT 130 MPH
 24H  04/0600Z 22.1N  47.7W  120 KT 140 MPH
 36H  04/1800Z 23.5N  49.1W  120 KT 140 MPH
 48H  05/0600Z 25.4N  50.1W  115 KT 130 MPH
 60H  05/1800Z 28.0N  50.3W  110 KT 125 MPH
 72H  06/0600Z 31.3N  49.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  07/0600Z 38.5N  42.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  08/0600Z 44.7N  30.8W   75 KT  85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Berg