Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070935
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Mar 7 2021

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0915 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure building
southward over eastern Mexico from the NW Gulf of Mexico is
supporting a gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region. Strong
gale force N to NE winds will continue through Tue, then diminish
to minimal gale force Tue night through early on Wed. Current
seas in the range of 10-16 ft are forecast to build to 11-18 ft
by Mon night, before they begin to subside through Wed night.
Mariners transiting this region should exercise caution to avoid
possible hazardous conditions that may result from this event.
Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The ITCZ axis extends from 04N90W to 03N99W to 03N110W, where it
briefly pauses as a trough is analyzed along a position from
07N1123 to low pressure near 04N112W 1007 mb and to 01N112W. The
ITCZ resumes at 03N115W to 04N130W and to beyond 03N140W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within
120 nm n of the ITCZ between 130W-135W. Scattered moderate
convection is 120 nm N of the ITCZ between 93W-98W, also
within 120 nm N of the iTCZ between 136W-140W and within
60 nm N of the ITCZ between 98W-100W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

See the Special Features section above regarding an ongoing
Gale Warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec region.

Moderate to fresh NW winds will remain west of the Baja
California peninsula through Tue, then increase to fresh to
strong speeds Tue night north of Cabo San Lazaro shifting to
south of Cabo San Lazaro Thu and Thu night. Large NW swell west
of Baja California that is producing seas of 8-12 ft will
gradually subside through Mon. A second set of large NW swell
will begin to impact the forecast waters Mon evening, and
continue through the rest of the week. This set of swell is
forecast to induce seas in the range of 8-12 ft through the
offshore waters, but higher seas possibly up to near or at 16 or
17 ft are possible N of 28N and west of the farthest north
offshore waters zone late Wed night into Thu subsiding to 14 ft
during Thu and to less than 12 ft late Thu. Otherwise, gentle to
moderate winds are expected in the Gulf of California, and the
offshore waters west of southern Mexico, except in the vicinity
of the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE to E winds will continue across the Papagayo
region through next week, with winds possibly reaching to near
gale force late tonight into Mon. Seas associated with these
winds will build to 8-11 ft through Mon as strong high pressure
builds over the western Caribbean Sea. The seas will subside a
little through mid-week. Fresh to locally strong northerly winds
are forecast in the Gulf of Panama through Wed, with the locally
strong winds expected mainly through early Mon. Sea downwind
from these winds will build to a maximum of 8 ft Sun night into
Mon morning, then subside to about 6 ft Mon night through Wed.
Light to gentle winds along with seas in the 3-5 ft range due to
a S to SW swell will prevail elsewhere through the middle part
of the week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Strong high pressure ridging stretches east-southeastward to near
20N118W. This ridge is anchored by a strong 1039 mb high center
located well to the NW of the area. The gradient between this
ridge and lower pressure S of 20N is supporting fresh to locally
strong NE to E winds between the ITCZ and 20N and W of about
120W. Seas within this area in the 8-11 ft due to long-period NW
to N swell. This area of swell will gradually shift SE through
the early part of the week as a new cold front moves into the NW
part of the area. This cold front is forecast to extend from near
32N127W to 28N131W and dissipating to 25N140W by late Mon night,
at which time NW to N swell will have out-paced the front to the
NW of a line from 32N118W to 24N127W and to 19N140W. Seas
resulting from this swell are forecast to be in the range of 8-12
ft, with the highest of the seas expected north of 27N at that
time. The NW to N swell will gradually propagate as far S as 04N
and W of 112W by late mid-week as the area of trade winds expands
some to the N. By mid-week, another round of NW to N swell will
be moving through the northern waters, where even higher seas
peaking up to 16 or 17 ft are expected, before subsiding at the
end of the week.

$$
Aguirre



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