Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 080900
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Jul 8 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Cristina is centered near 13.9N 106.5W at 08/0900
UTC moving WNW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
1003 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt.
Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 150 nm of
the center except 90 nm in the NE quadrant. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is elsewhere within 480 nm in the SW
semicircle. Cristina is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane on
Thu, and continue to move W-NW, well offshore of Mexico. Please
read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP5.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP5.shtml for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 87W, north of 02N into Central America,
moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 05N to 10N between 85W and 88W.

A tropical wave is along 117W from 03N to 18N, moving W at 10 to
15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
from 11N to 14N between 113W and 117W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N85W to 11N97W, then
resumes near 16N113W to 1011 mb low pressure near 16N120W to
1011 mb low pressure near 08N136W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 15N between 119W
and 130W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the Special Features section for information on
Tropical Storm Cristina.

While the strongest winds and seas associated with Cristina are
forecast to remain well away from the coast of Mexico, a swath
of fresh to strong SE winds northeast of the center is, based on
scatterometer data, occurring along the coast of Mexico between
100W and 104W due to funneling effects near the coast. Outer
bands of convection of Cristina will pass through these offshore
waters, with squalls and heavy rainfall.

A ridge will dominate the waters west of Baja California through
Thu, retracting westward on Thu as Cristina approaches the area.
The ridge will continue to support gentle to moderate NW-N winds.

Strong NW winds west of California generated 8-9 ft northerly
swell in the waters N of Punta Eugenia since Tue. The swell will
subside as it propagates southwward across the waters N of Cabo
San Lazaro today, with seas becoming 5-7 ft.

Expect pulsing fresh southerly winds over the northern Gulf of
California on Fri as the pressure gradient tightens across the
area. Mainly gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected
elsewhere across the Gulf of California.

Fresh northerly gap winds are expected in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec on Fri.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh NE-E winds are expected in the Papagayo region
during the next several days. Moderate to occasionally fresh SW
winds will prevail over the waters S of 10N. Seas will be mainly
4 to 6 ft in S-SW swell through Sun.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please see the Special Features section for information on
Tropical Storm Cristina.

A surface ridge dominates the northern waters, with moderate to
fresh N-NE winds across the area. Northerly swell will spread
across much of the region N of 20N W of 120W today, decaying
through early Thu.

A 1011 mb low pressure area is analyzed along the monsoon trough
near 16N120W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted southwest of the low center. A small area of fresh to
strong winds and seas to 9 ft are associated with this low. Some
slow development of this system is possible during the next two
days before environmental conditions become unfavorable.

A area of low pressure is expected to form south of Tehuantepec
late this week or this weekend. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for development this weekend as the
system moves westward, well S of the coast of Mexico.

$$
Mundell


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