Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 230540
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1140 PM CST Fri Feb 22 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 430 PM CST Fri Feb 22 2019

At 430 PM, a strong upper level trough was pushing through the
Southwest, where it brought an all time record daily snowfall to
Flagstaff, Arizona. More than 30 inches! Ahead of this system a
broad region of diffluence over the Central Plains was leading to
mostly cloudy skies, with embedded areas of light wintry
precipitation occurring over Nebraska/Iowa. Surface temperatures
remained below freezing over northern and central Nebraska, while
western Iowa and southeast Nebraska had crept above freezing
(33-36 degrees).

Through Saturday morning the focus of the forecast is the
potential for mixed precipitation over the region. A diffuse
freezing line stretched from just south of Omaha to around
Fairbury around at 430 PM. This line isn`t likely to move much
this evening and overnight, with continued easterly/southeasterly
mid level winds promoting WAA. As such the greatest risk of
freezing precipitation should be along and north of Interstate 80
through tomorrow morning. The highest precipitation chances are
expected north of a line from Lincoln to Omaha through midnight
tonight. Then best potential for precipitation shifts to far
southeast Nebraska and southern Iowa after midnight, where
moderate rain and even a rumble of thunder are possible through
Saturday morning.

Short range guidance (RAP & HRRR) does indicate some potential
for a band of moderate sleet/snow Saturday morning (7 to 10 AM).
If this band occurs it could push through Omaha and Lincoln and
impact Interstates 29 and 80 with a quick 1 to 2 inches of
sleet/snow. Something to watch before the main band arrives later
in the day.

The main focus of the forecast: Blizzard Warning from Noon
Saturday to 3 AM Sunday (see below).

By Saturday afternoon the primarily surface low should be
progressing through eastern Kansas. As this occurs strong
northerly winds will arrive, bringing CAA to the region and
sending temperatures tumbling back to sub freezing values. This
will push a north-south oriented rain/snow line through the
region. The rain/snow line is expected to pass through Lincoln
between noon and 3 PM, and Omaha between 2 PM and 5 PM. Conditions
across the region will deteriorate rapidly once snow begins, with
roadways becoming very hazardous or impassable quickly. Snowfall
rates of 1 to 3 inches per hour are possible, and will combine
with 35 to 50 mph wind gusts to create zero to near zero
visibility and significant drifting snow (Blizzard Conditions).
The worst conditions will occur in the Lincoln and Omaha Metros
between 3 PM and midnight. Travel is highly discouraged during
this period. Snow is also expected to be wet and heavy (more
spring like), and may combine with the winds to produce local
power outages. Shoveling Sunday morning will be quite the chore.
Total snowfall for this event is expected to range from 1 to 9
inches, with the axis of heaviest snowfall (5 to 9 inches)
stretching from Beatrice to Lincoln to Omaha. Isolated 10 inch or
higher amounts are possible, however significant blowing and
drifting snow will make accurate measurements nearly impossible.
And not to be forgotten, the potential for thundersnow, which
isn`t zero with this event. Elevated CAPE of around 100-200 j/kg
is indicated by some of the models Saturday afternoon/evening, so
we shall see. Should you hear a rumble do let us know!

Snowfall will end for most area by midnight Saturday. Winds will
remain strong in the wake of the snow, and could allow blowing and
drifting snow to continue into Sunday morning. Later shifts can
evaluate this period in greater detail.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 430 PM CST Fri Feb 22 2019

Compared to this weekend`s weather, next week looks pretty tame.
Temperatures are likely to remain below average with prevailing
northwest flow aloft. There will be a couple chances for very
light snow, as a couple weak shortwaves drift by. Fortunately it
looks like we should get a brake from the significant winter
storms. No complaints here!!!

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1137 PM CST Fri Feb 22 2019

LIFR conditions with freezing drizzle at all three TAF sites, but
with light east northeast winds. This transitions to moderate to
heavy snow by 18-22z, with blowing snow and visibility down to
1/4 mile at KLNK/KOMA. Conditions begin to rapidly improve by
03-06z as the system pulls away. Snow amounts around 2-3 inches at
KOFK, and 6 to 9" at KLNK/KOMA.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Saturday for NEZ015-033-
     034-043>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.

     Blizzard Warning from noon Saturday to 3 AM CST Sunday for
     NEZ015-033-034-043>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 3 AM CST Sunday for NEZ011-012-
     016>018-030>032-042.

IA...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Saturday for IAZ043-055-
     056-069-079-080-090-091.

     Blizzard Warning from noon Saturday to 3 AM CST Sunday for
     IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Albright
LONG TERM...Albright
AVIATION...DeWald



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