Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 260905

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
305 AM CST Fri Feb 26 2021

Issued at 305 AM CST Fri Feb 26 2021

The large scale pattern at 00Z featured a shortwave trough
extending from WI to NM it but was not producing any weather of
significance close to our area. A stronger trough was digging
over the Pacific Northwest, with 180 meter height falls the past
12 hours at Spokane. This trough was supported by a jetstreak of
around 130 knots at 300 mb on the west side of the system. That
western trough will continue to dig over the Rockies and it
appears a piece of it will move out across the Central Plains for
Saturday and Saturday night.

Today...Expect variable mid and high level cloudiness, along with
increasing southwest winds. Winds will increase into the 10 to 25
mph range with some gusts to 30 mph or more. The strongest gusts
should be across northeast NE during the morning and early
afternoon where gusts could reach 40 mph. The amount of snow on
the ground has really decreased the past 5 days or so, but it will
still have some impact for parts of the forecast area. There is
not much if any snow left across much of northeast NE or for
locations near the KS and MO borders.

Tonight...Southerly winds will help hold temperatures up a bit
with lows in the 20s. Skies should range from mostly clear to
partly cloudy.

Saturday...A low pressure system will be moving through the
region. Temperatures should peak in the upper 40s and lower 50s
for much of the area, with readings of 55 to 60 near the KS
border. We increased rain chances a little for the afternoon,
with POPs of 20 to 40 percent. Expect the center of a surface low
to be near Omaha at sunset, which will move toward north central
IA through midnight. Will keep POPs at 20 to 40 percent for
Saturday evening, but main precipitation band should setup farther
north across SD and southern MN. For now it appears precipitation
amounts would be less than two tenths of an inch with any snow
amounts less than half an inch.

Sunday through Wednesday...This looks like a mainly dry period.
A system will bring precipitation across KS and MO Tuesday, but
for now chances in our area look pretty low. A slightly colder
airmass will settle down from the northern Plains Sunday with
brisk northwest winds. But warmer air should start to move in from
the south and west Monday into Tuesday. Highs should be in the
upper 30s to mid 40s Sunday, 40s to lower 50s Monday, then mostly
in the 50s for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Thursday into Friday...There are significant differences in the
pattern shown by the longer range models in this period. The 00Z
operational GFS suggests a pretty strong system with quite a bit
of rain. But the 00Z operational ECWMF is basically dry for our
area for the same period. We will keep a dry forecast for now
until model agreement improves.

A flood watch remains in effect until Noon Monday for areas that
include the Platte, Elkhorn and Loup Rivers. Warm weather the past
week has caused enough snow melt to flush ice out of the Loup
Basin. Ice jams will be possible the next few days. See specific
warnings and advisories for details.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1109 PM CST Thu Feb 25 2021

VFR conditions remain in the forecast through Friday evening as
mainly high level clouds are expected. Low level wind shear is
likely at all sites through 17Z as a southerly low level jet
between FL010 and FL020 near 40 knots at 06Z becomes south-
southwest up to 45 knots by 12Z.


NE...Flood Watch through Monday morning for NEZ016-031>033-042>045-



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