Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 152032
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
332 PM CDT Wed Aug 15 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 331 PM CDT Wed Aug 15 2018

Daytime heating in combination with 70 dew points/PWS 1.5" where
yielding MLCAPES around 1500 J/kg just ahead of a thunderstorm
complex currently over s-cntrl SD/n-cntrl NE. All this in part to a
strong shortwave trof presently over the western Dakotas slowly
trekking to the southeast.

Activity is moving into a high instability/weak vertical shear
environment thus expect storms to remain multicellular in nature
as they continue to push east. Given trends the last couple hours
expect storms to reach the northern CWA by late afternoon with
possible damaging wind threat into the early evening. As the
shortwave trof slowly shifts toward the mid MS VLY
tonight/Thursday precip is progged to expand across the rest of
the CWA.

Late Thursday afternoon attendant cold front will be the focus for
severe storm development mainly south of the I-80 corridor. As of
now it appears that deep layer shear will be relatively weak at the
time of storm initiation over southeast NE. Not out of the realm
though that a few storms may approach/turn severe but believe any
widespread severe activity will not be realized until exiting the
southern CWA into northeast KS where more favorable environmental
shear is progged to be.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 331 PM CDT Wed Aug 15 2018

The ECM/GFS/CMC are in rather good agreement a strong shortwave trof
dropping out of the northern Plain will induce precip Saturday night
through Monday with severe storms looking possible Saturday night.

Below normal highs expected through the extended periods with
upper 70s/low 80 prevailing.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Wed Aug 15 2018

MVFR conditions are expected to continue across KOMA and KLNK this
afternoon and possibly into the evening while KOFK remains VFR. A
few showers and thunderstorms may move into KOFK later this
afternoon or evening and spread east toward KOMA and KLNK early
Thursday. Additional storms are expected toward the end of this
TAF cycle.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DEE
LONG TERM...DEE
AVIATION...Kern


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