240
FXUS63 KOAX 242311
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
511 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonable temperatures continue for the weekend, with highs
  generally reaching the 30s. By early next week, highs are
  expected to climb into the 40s and the low 50s.

- Chances for a rain/snow system are on the rise for Thursday
  and Friday next week, with details becoming more clear as the
  system approaches.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2025

Upper air analysis shows trofing over the Appalachians,
stark northerly flow over the Canadian West Coast, and
nearly latitudinal flow over the central CONUS.

After the coldest three day spell in over a year that occurred
earlier this week, today`s high temperatures of lower to mid-40s
feel fantastic. Westerly downsloping winds are gusting 15-30
knots at times behind a warm front that has pushed into western
Iowa as of 2:00 PM. Today`s forecast highs were close to the
90th percentile of HREF members and I`ve already pushed it three
or four degrees higher. Coolest temps of mid to upper-30s
remain along the KS state line where a couple of inches of snow
remain.

19Z surface observations show a cold front just now pushing
through KOFK and KGRI on the heels of the warm sector. The cold
air advection will leave temps mostly in the 30s for Saturday
and Sunday.

Have added some flurries to the forecast overnight based on CAMs
and forecast soundings that show near saturation through an
isothermal layer at about -15C. We also happen to be under the
right-rear entrance region of an H5 jet streak. Still confidence
is low. Chances are that most locations will remain dry, but a
20% chance of flurries is reasonable for areas south and west of
LNK. Expect no accums. Virga seems most likely with a dry sub-
cloud layer.

.WEEKEND...

Have pushed up forecast wind speeds based on forecast soundings
and have areas north of I-80 approaching occasional gust speeds
of 30 knots. With the low-level cold-air-advection, temperatures
will fall shy of today`s marks but still approach seasonal norms
with highs generally in the 30s. The breezy winds will make it
feel cooler. AM wind chills will slip into the teens or single
digits and northeast Nebraska will feel sub-20F much of the day.
Sunday will be similar with partly cloudy skies, highs near 40,
and no elementary school. This time there will be less wind.

.NEXT WEEK...

A transient ridge drives temps higher for early next week with
50s forecast for both Monday and Tuesday in half or more of
grid locations in the CWA. Omaha is forecast to manage near 50F
both days. If Eppley manages 51F or higher, it would be the
warmest temperature there in well over a month.

Ridging breaks down by late in the week as a cut-off low
develops over the Desert Southwest and pushes northeast, drawing
moisture north from the Gulf. Precipitation is looking
increasingly likely. It may be warm enough to begin as rain
before changing over to accumulating snow. EC ensemble members
are suggesting a bit of a bi-modal distribution of snowfall
solutions. About half of models suggesting little to no snow for
Omaha and about half suggesting 2-3". Sure enough, EC`s
probability of 1" of snow or more (10:1) by Saturday is about
45% for Omaha and closer to 55% along the Kansas state line.
That snow is welcomed by ranchers, farmers, and firefighters as
Omaha has still only accumulated an inch of snow officially this
year. By tomorrow, Omaha will be the least snowy to date (summer to
1/25) since reliable records began in Omaha in 1886.

Expect details in timing, confidence, location, and p-type to
emerge over the course of the the next few days.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 507 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2025

VFR conditions through the period. Northwest winds 7-8 knots at
TAF issuance, increasing to 15 knots by 14-16z with gusts up to
25 knots. There are some indications sustained winds could
reach 20-22 knot 17-21z, with gusts to 30-32 knots at KOFK/KOMA.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...DeWald