Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 291739

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1239 PM CDT Mon May 29 2023

...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...

Issued at 242 AM CDT Mon May 29 2023

Key Messages:

 - Above-normal temperatures continue this week

 - Periodic rain chances into next weekend

Today and Tuesday...

Spotty showers and sprinkles struggled to move into the forecast
area overnight, while a weakening cluster of storms skirted across
the western fringes of the forecast area as it traveled southeast
along an instability axis.

A pair of shortwaves will progress across the plains, bringing
additional off and on chances for showers and storms today and
Tuesday. There is a Marginal Risk for a few strong to severe storms
this afternoon and evening across northeast Nebraska. MLCAPE values
of 1500 to 2000 J/kg will be possible, along with 20 to 30 kts of
shear, which could be just enough to maintain updrafts. However, the
absence of a surface boundary to focus thunderstorm development
could limit severe potential.

Wednesday and Beyond...

Additional weak disturbances are forecast to eject into the northern
Plains Wednesday and Thursday ahead of a slightly stronger shortwave
trough pivoting north through the High Plains Friday and Saturday.
Each of these upcoming disturbances will yield spotty shower and
thunderstorm chances each day.  The best chances will likely be in
the afternoons and evenings with diurnal heating. Unfortunately, it
will be difficult to make up any major precipitation deficits this
week without any clear forcing mechanism or surface boundary in the
forecast at this time.

Temperatures will remain above normal through the week.  Highs this
Memorial Day will be in the mid 80s with temperature reaching the
upper 80s and low 90s through the remainder of the forecast period.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1126 AM CDT Mon May 29 2023

Chances for scattered TSRA will increase late this evening over
eastern NE as low level jet ramps up over the region. TSRA
activity expected at KOFK just shortly before midnight and at
KOMA/KLNK after midnight. greatest risk for severe storms will be
over northeast NE during the late evening hours.




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