Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 111724

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1124 AM CST Tue Dec 11 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 210 AM CST Tue Dec 11 2018

A mid-level shortwave trough axis extending from northern
Saskatchewan through eastern MT and into WY will continue to slide
east today. In the low-levels, warm-air advection continues ahead
of this upper shortwave and a few readings early this morning have
warmed a handful of degrees as southwesterly surface winds
promote better mixing. A fair amount of mixing into the early
afternoon hours should push temps in our far south to near 50 with
lower to mid 30s possible in our far northern counties before a
surface cold front pushes through the CWA this afternoon. Most of
the associated precipitation with this mid-level system should
remain well north of the CWA this afternoon/evening, but as a
stratus deck increases across our northern counties this evening,
a few flurries are possible along the SD/Neb border for a few
hours. Behind the quick moving system, point forecast soundings
across northeast Nebraska indicate a very shallow moist layer Wed
morning so some fog potential cannot be ruled out, especially in
our northeastern counties.

Slightly cooler but quiet weather is expected on Wednesday ahead
of the next shortwave trough that digs across the area for
Thursday. The southern portion of this shortwave will dig into
the Southern Plains and become cut off while the northern portion
slides east across the northern Plains. Light precipitation is
possible Wednesday night along the SD/Neb border along an
associated cold front but the better moisture will remain far to
our south across the southern Plains. A mix of light
precipitation is possible across far southeast Nebraska/southwest
Iowa Thursday but confidence in this is still somewhat low. The
ECMWF brings moisture a bit further north into our region while
the GFS remains dry.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 210 AM CST Tue Dec 11 2018

Quiet conditions are expected through the period with slightly
above normal temperatures for this time of the year. Upper heights
will build over the nation`s mid-section into the early part of
the weekend. By late Saturday, a shortwave trough will dig across
the CWA but this is forecast to come through dry. Cold air
advection behind this system later in the weekend will be short-
lived as amplified upper ridging builds into the region for early
next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1123 AM CST Tue Dec 11 2018

VFR conditions through the period. Southwest winds becoming
northwest through time. There could be some LLWS at all three TAF
sites, from 03-09z, with northwest winds at 2000` from 330 degrees
at 35 to 40 knots.




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