Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 202320

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
620 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

As of Saturday afternoon, a cold front was situated from northeast
Nebraska through south-central Nebraska. Temperatures south of the
front are in the mid 90s with heat indices around 105. North of
front, cooler air has arrived with temperatures currently in the
low to mid 70s in northeast Nebraska. Some isolated trailing
convection was located in northeast NE and western IA after the
passage of an upper level wave this morning that brought severe
storms to South Dakota and Iowa.

With westerly flow in the upper levels, the cold front will likely
not make much southerly progress through the afternoon and
evening. The front will not begin to make much southerly progress
until overnight when an additional shortwave arrives. Although
instability is high ahead of the front this afternoon, severe
threat is low, with weaker moisture, strong capping, and limited
forcing south of the front. Overnight precipitation will remain post
frontal and mainly impact northeast nebraska until the arrival of
the initial wave by midnight. By early morning Sunday,
precipitation will be more wide spread behind the front. Heavy
rain may be possible with models showing precipitable water values
over 2", nearing 200% of normal. An additional upper level wave
will progress across northeast Nebraska Sunday morning, providing
additional lift and continued rain chances across the area
through the day, although heavy rainfall potential will dwindle by

By Sunday night the shortwave will be east of the area, and with
the cold front well to the south, temperatures will be much more
pleasant to start the work week. The week will start with
temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s (well below normal and a
much needed break from the heat).

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

Quiet weather will dominate much of the forecast this coming week,
although rain chances may return by the end of the week. To start
the week a building high pressure over the southwest United States
will bring northwest flow and pleasant conditions. By the end of
the week however, the ridge may begins to break down allowing for
the return of rain chances next weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Sat Jul 20 2019

Busy TAF period with multiple aviation impacts. MVFR clouds at
KOFK initially, but that may improve back to VFR by 02z.
Thunderstorms become prevalent and widespread by 07-10z, and could
continue through the day, especially at KLNK/KOMA. MVFR ceilings
developing at KLNK/KOMA by 10z.


NE...Excessive Heat Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for

IA...Excessive Heat Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for IAZ079-



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