Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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FXUS63 KOAX 202347
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
647 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2020

...Updated Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2020

This Evening through Wednesday Night...

Drizzle continued along and east of the Missouri River throughout
the morning hours as more substantial precipitation passed by just
to the north of our forecast area, from South Dakota into Minnesota.
Skies will continue to clear late this afternoon and evening.

Dry conditions will persist through tonight and Wednesday morning,
as low temperatures dip into the low to mid 30s.  By Wednesday
afternoon, low level winds will become southerly, pulling slightly
warmer air into the region. But given the late arrival of southerly
flow, afternoon highs will only rise a few degrees above today,
reaching into the low to mid 50s.  Warm air advection will help kick
off a few showers and storms over southeast Nebraska and western
Iowa Wednesday afternoon and evening, with precipitation chances
lingering into Thursday morning.

Thursday through Friday...

Warm air advection strengthens Thursday ahead of an approaching cold
front. Southerly winds could gust up to 30+ kts.  Additional
thunderstorms are expected to pop up along the front Thursday
afternoon.  Some storms may be strong across eastern Nebraska and
southwest Iowa, as instability and lapse rates build ahead of the
front.

Blustery north winds will push much cooler air across the region
behind the front Friday. Highs are expected to only reach the upper
30s and lower 40s. Overnight, lows in the 20s will finally stick a
fork in the growing season for the entire forecast area.

Saturday Through Early Next Week...

While it is still a ways out in the weather world, there continues
to be a signal for a  significant system impacting the region this
weekend. A reinforcing shot of cold air and snow do look possible,
however, it is too soon to begin estimating snowfall amounts. But
keep an eye on the forecast for later updates. Especially if you
have any travel plans coming up.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 641 PM CDT Tue Oct 20 2020

There is a low potential for fog in east central Nebraska and
western Iowa (including KOMA) between 10Z and 14Z Wednesday.
Otherwise VFR conditions (ceilings AOA 5000 ft AGL and
unrestricted visibility will linger through 15Z Wednesday. Winds
will be light tonight, then become easterly Wednesday. A few
showers may arrive in southeast Nebraska after 15Z, but are most
likely after 21Z Wednesday. A rapid transition to MVFR conditions
is expected after 21Z for southeastern Nebraska and southern Iowa
(including KOMA and KLNK).

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KG
AVIATION...Albright



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