Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 231714 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1214 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018 .UPDATE... Issued at 1210 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018 Boosted highs about 1 degree from previous forecast. This brings us to 90 at Omaha and Lincoln, which we haven`t hit at these two locations since September 23, 2017. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday) Issued at 230 AM CDT Wed May 23 2018 The summer-like pattern over the next several days will mean above normal temperatures, but also the risk for hard to pin down storms. The h5 low over the Nevada/Utah border will lift northward toward Montana through Wednesday night. Stronger areas of convection are north of the low level jet and extend from South Dakota into southwest Minnesota and northern Iowa. A shortwave near the Colorado/Kansas border will lift north this morning with isolated thunderstorms over central Nebraska. Not sure if any of these will make it into northeast Nebraska. There is an ill-defined boundary near the NE/SD border and did keep the small pops in there. Over the next few days, temperatures heat up into the upper 80s and lower 90s and forecast soundings predict instability of 2500-3500J/kg with little or no CIN and very steep lapse rates. The environment will be primed, it will just need something to get storms going. As discussed, we don`t have real strong signals until Thursday night when there is lift with the shortwave trough breaking down the ridge with a cold front. This afternoon, weak lift does move into the region and the CAMS increase thunderstorm chances in eastern Kansas. The NAM is dry locally, however several of the other models indicate isolated storms possible this afternoon in southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa. Tonight some of the storms over central Nebraska may make it into northeast Nebraska. Thursday there is stronger warm air thus spotty storms continue. Thursday night, the coverage increases with the shortwave trough passage and some of the storms in Iowa could linger Friday morning. The precipitable water values are around and inch and these increase to 1.5 inches by thursday morning and continue Friday. These high pwats combined with storms motions of 10 to 20kts mean that locally heavy rain will be possible. Related to severe weather, the instability is moderate, however the shear is on the weaker side. Locally heavy rain and marginal severe hail seem to be the biggest risks. Even though it will be warmer and more muggy, a south breeze each day should help. .LONG TERM...(Friday night through Tuesday) Issued at 230 AM CDT Wed May 23 2018 The extended forecast Saturday through Monday still looks mainly dry with above normal temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s. A storm system will be over parts of California and Nevada and affecting the Gulf and Atlantic coasts and we are in-between. That being said, with moisture in place, heating and a weak cap or no cap at times, it would not be unreasonable to see a few storms over the weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon) Issued at 1210 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018 VFR conditions through the period. Gusty south southeast winds 12 to 21 knots this afternoon, with gusts diminishing by 00-02z. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ UPDATE...DeWald SHORT TERM...Zapotocny LONG TERM...Zapotocny AVIATION...DeWald is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.