-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
752
FXUS63 KOAX 120444
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1144 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another chance to see Northern Lights tonight, but high clouds
  might start creeping in overnight.

- Storm chances (60-80%) Sunday - Monday, break on Tuesday,
  more storms Wednesday through at least Friday. Nothing looks
  particularly severe at this time.

- Seasonal daytime temperatures are expected through much of
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

We have a few scattered clouds at 9000 feet this afternoon with
temperatures in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees this afternoon.
Near perfect conditions to get outside, while I`m stuck indoors
writing this forecast discussion. Winds are breezy out of the
northwest gusting to around 20 mph, just enough to make it not
feel hot. Winds will drop back off this evening with clear skies
to start as we get another chance to see auroras, though
probably a bit dimmer show than last night according to the
forecast from the Space Weather Prediction Center. I`m no Space
Weather Expert, though. One thing to keep in mind if you`re
planning on trying to catch those glowing skies tonight, we do
have some high clouds that are going to try and crash the party
late. Expect their arrival with some wispy clouds at Lincoln as
early as 10 PM and Omaha closer to midnight. Thicker clouds
likely won`t arrive until closer to sunrise, though, so you`ll
still probably be okay for gazing those excited atomic oxygen
and nitrogen molecules.

Sunday we get back to actual weather discussion with the
approach of a positively-tilted upper-level trough which
develops a surface low over western Kansas on Sunday. Strong
moisture advection out ahead of the system will bring moisture
up into our area starting Sunday morning, but PoPs won`t really
start to increase until the upper-level wave gets closer Sunday
afternoon. At the same time, daytime heating should help to
destabilize the environment allowing for thunderstorm
development. While we see around 2000 J/kg of surface-based
instability (at most!) Sunday afternoon, mainly up toward the
South Dakota border, there is very little shear so we do not
anticipate any severe storms with this event on Sunday. We stay
on the north-side of the surface low as it passes south of us
into Monday with showers and thunderstorms continuing through
much of the day on Monday, not completely moving out until
Monday evening. Heaviest rainfall from this event should stay
across southern parts of our area near the Kansas and Missouri
borders, with widespread amounts of 1-2 inches likes, and
locally higher amounts possible.

Tuesday we get a break in the weather with a happy little ridge.
Highs get back up into the mid-to-upper 70s, and skies clear
back out again. Looking like another very lovely day. Meanwhile,
another trough is brewing out west.

This next trough moves in bringing more showers and storm
chances for Wednesday through Friday, though at this time
nothing is standing out as looking particularly severe.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Mid and high-level clouds will continue to increase overnight
into Sunday with recent model data suggesting shower and
isolated thunderstorm development by late morning or early
afternoon; earlier than previous forecasts. As such, this
forecast will introduce TEMPO groups at that time at KOMA and
KLNK with prevailing -TSRA from mid-afternoon into evening at
all locations when the atmosphere will be most unstable. VFR
conditions will be maintained, though brief MVFR visibilities
are possible should a heavier storm move over a terminal
location. While south to southwest winds will generally remain
less than 12 kt, the models suggest a 2-4 hour period Sunday
afternoon when sustained speeds could approach or exceed 12 kt.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...McCoy
AVIATION...Mead