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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000
FXUS63 KOAX 220440
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1140 PM CDT Mon May 21 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Mon May 21 2018

Weak high pressure was located over the mid and lower Missouri
Valley at 19Z, while a mid level wave over eastern SD was
approaching MN.

As this northern plains wave tracks east tonight warm advection
returns to the central plains with the chance of elevated
convection late tonight. Models place a warm front across southern
NE by 06Z then stall it in the area through 15Z. This warm
advection zone continues to lift northeast through the day on
Tuesday and into Tuesday night reaching from central SD into
southwest MN and northeast IA by 12Z Wed. Periods of thunderstorms
are likely in the vicinity of this forcing as it moves northeast
through Tuesday night with the better chance of storms coming late
Tuesday night and mainly north and east of the forecast area.

Similar features return for Wednesday night into Thursday as
another strong upper wave swings across the northern plains while
southerly flow increases from the central plains into the upper
Midwest. Another round of storms is likely over much of the region
during this time.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Mon May 21 2018

A warm and moist pattern looks to continue for the region in the
extended period. Through the weekend another strong wave comes
into the southwest CONUS with abundant moisture and instability
pulled north across the plains region in advance of the system.
Off and on thunderstorms are likely during this time with most of
the activity occurring from late afternoon into the overnight
hours in this period.

&&

.AVIATION...-- Changed Discussion --(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT Mon May 21 2018

Plan-view VAD data indicate the presence of a strong warm
advection which has yielded broken mid-level clouds (FL070-080)
which are spreading from central into eastern NE. Model guidance
remains consistent in suggesting the development of widely
scattered showers in the next couple of hours, and the potential
for a few thunderstorms late tonight through daybreak Tuesday.
That convection should shift east of the area by mid to late
morning with winds strengthening from the south at 10-15 kt.-- End Changed Discussion --


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fobert
LONG TERM...Fobert
AVIATION...Mead

National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office