Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 220440 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1140 PM CDT Mon May 21 2018 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday) Issued at 250 PM CDT Mon May 21 2018 Weak high pressure was located over the mid and lower Missouri Valley at 19Z, while a mid level wave over eastern SD was approaching MN. As this northern plains wave tracks east tonight warm advection returns to the central plains with the chance of elevated convection late tonight. Models place a warm front across southern NE by 06Z then stall it in the area through 15Z. This warm advection zone continues to lift northeast through the day on Tuesday and into Tuesday night reaching from central SD into southwest MN and northeast IA by 12Z Wed. Periods of thunderstorms are likely in the vicinity of this forcing as it moves northeast through Tuesday night with the better chance of storms coming late Tuesday night and mainly north and east of the forecast area. Similar features return for Wednesday night into Thursday as another strong upper wave swings across the northern plains while southerly flow increases from the central plains into the upper Midwest. Another round of storms is likely over much of the region during this time. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Monday) Issued at 250 PM CDT Mon May 21 2018 A warm and moist pattern looks to continue for the region in the extended period. Through the weekend another strong wave comes into the southwest CONUS with abundant moisture and instability pulled north across the plains region in advance of the system. Off and on thunderstorms are likely during this time with most of the activity occurring from late afternoon into the overnight hours in this period. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) Issued at 1139 PM CDT Mon May 21 2018 Plan-view VAD data indicate the presence of a strong warm advection which has yielded broken mid-level clouds (FL070-080) which are spreading from central into eastern NE. Model guidance remains consistent in suggesting the development of widely scattered showers in the next couple of hours, and the potential for a few thunderstorms late tonight through daybreak Tuesday. That convection should shift east of the area by mid to late morning with winds strengthening from the south at 10-15 kt.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Fobert LONG TERM...Fobert AVIATION...Mead

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