Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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908 FXUS63 KOAX 101756 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1256 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong to severe thunderstorms continue across the area this morning. Expect the storms to take a break before redeveloping later this afternoon or evening. - Severe storms remain possible on Friday afternoon and evening, too. - Temperatures cool slightly on Saturday before warming up Sunday through Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Water vapor imagery reveals a flattened ridge over the Four Corners region and quasi-zonal flow over the Intermountain West. A significant shortwave has lead to two separate MCSs combining into one line of storms over this CWA. This resultant QLCS has been producing severe gusts over the past hour or two as it pushes into an airmass with more buoyancy. Still, it continues south and east and is pushing past the borders of this forecast area. Also of note is the thunderstorm complex just south of the Elkhorn River in north-central Nebraska where guidance has consistent indicated thunderstorm development (check) and a drifting east over the morning hours (check). That may bring enough cloud-cover to play (temporary) spoiler for Thursday`s convection. .THIS AFTERNOON and TONIGHT... Global guidance and CAMs still produce convection tonight in what`s looking like another unstable atmosphere (SFC CAPE 2500-4000 J/kg). Hodographs, representing veering winds, look capable of producing supercells capable of large hail or a tornado early in the event. Regardless as to whether there are supercells ahead of the lee trof / shortwave, the significant forcing for ascent should be enough to initiate or expand coverage as storms grow upscale and the primary threat transitions to wind gusts. These storms will also produce heavy rain. WPC has issued a slight (15%) risk for excessive rainfall later tonight with the forecast development of a convective complex that pushes out of Nebraska and into Iowa. PWAT values of 1.5" will be common as southwesterly flow at H8 and H7 continue to pump moisture into the complex as it treks east late Thursday eve. Rainfall totals of 2-3" are possible, with best chances in western Iowa (10%). .FRIDAY... Thunderstorms are possible again on Friday with CAPE forecast to be high again (2,000 to 3,000 J/kg). Confidence in placement is low thanks to Thursday`s convection leaving boundaries strewn about. An H5 low should provide enough forcing for ascent to produce likely PoPs (50-80%). Expect highs (mostly 80s) to be a couple degrees cooler than today. .THE WEEKEND... Dry northwesterly flow at H5 sets the stage for an easy opportunity to get outdoors. Saturday looks pleasant with highs another step cooler (lower 80s) under partly cloudy skies and northerly winds of 5-15 mph. Sunday will be a bit warmer thanks to the southerly return flow. The next best chance of precipitation looks to be on Tuesday night as a surface low ejects out of the desert southwest and brings 50% PoPs to the CWA as it pushes northeast. Pattern recognition already points to a flash flood threat with this approaching system. This surface low will conspire with a positively tilted H5 trof working along the US/Canadian border to help change the overall pattern and allow cooler air to filter in from the north. By mid-week, highs are forecast to peak only in the 70s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
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Issued at 1256 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025 A line of storms is currently oriented northwest to southeast stretching from KOFK down to around KFET. This has shown a distinct weakening trend over the past hour, and should continue lifting northeastward this afternoon. Expect scattered storms to develop this afternoon around 20-23Z in northeast Nebraska, likely impacting KOFK, converging into a line of storms that will move southeastward into KLNK and KOMA later tonight around 04Z. Damaging winds likely with portions of this line of storms with gusts 50-75kt possible as well as quarter-size hail. Cigs should remain high, around FL070-100, but vis under storms may drop as low as 1/2sm at times. Storms should move out of KOFK around 04-05Z, and around 09-10Z at KLNK and KOMA. With storms moving out of KOFK fairly early in the night and winds becoming light, there is a good potential for areas of fog to develop in northeast Nebraska, impacting KOFK, generally from around 09-14Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions should return to the terminals once heavier showers end and fog clears. Winds will remain light through Friday morning, generally out of the southeast.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen AVIATION...McCoy