Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 232315 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 615 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018 .SHORT TERM...
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(Tonight through Monday) Issued at 317 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018 Showers and thunderstorms are expected to spread across the area tonight as a shortwave trough approaches the region increasing large-scale forcing for ascent across our forecast area this evening. In addition, a surface low currently over northeast Colorado will move east across northern Kansas along a warm front and into a low-level moist axis extending into north central Kansas. Thunderstorm initiation is anticipated later this afternoon near the surface low and is expected to continue to move east/northeast, becoming elevated as convection drifts eastward. There remains a slight risk for a few severe storms later this evening along the KS/NE border which includes a few of our southwestern counties as the surface low taps into the modified Gulf airmass. Given steep mid-level lapse rates, a few storms may produce isolated large hail in our far southwestern counties later this evening. Rain will continue through much of the overnight until the upper-level shortwave axis slides east of the region. By 12Z Saturday, the surface low is forecast to be centered over northwest Missouri with lingering showers across our eastern counties by that time. Much of Saturday will be dry and cooler with brisk north winds becoming easterly by evening. Medium range models continue to indicate a swath of light precipitation developing over northeast Nebraska Sunday morning, likely in response to strong low-level warm air advection. Temperature profiles show some of this precipitation could fall as light freezing drizzle or freezing rain with surface temperatures close to 32-33 degrees. No significant icing accumulations are expected but could cause a little glaze on elevated surfaces before sunrise Sunday morning. Showers return to the area Sunday and Sunday night ahead of our next approaching shortwave. Surface low pressure is progged to move east out of eastern Colorado into Monday with a surface front extending northeast into Minnesota. Showers and thunderstorms look likely near this boundary through the day Monday with much cooler air filling in behind the boundary Monday night into Tuesday. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday) Issued at 317 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018 Near-normal to slightly cooler than normal temperatures are expected into much of next week with the exception of warmer conditions on Monday.
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(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 615 PM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018 Expect deteriorating conditions down into the IFR category as precipitation develops. TSRA possible mainly at KLNK but also a small chance at KOFK and KOMA. Winds will shift to the northeast or north. Conditions should start to improve Saturday afternoon.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kern LONG TERM...Kern AVIATION...Miller is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.