Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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115 FXUS63 KOAX 191956 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 256 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 256 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018 Upper level ridging and surface high pressure will dominate the weather regime in the near term, with skies remaining mostly clear and temperatures cooler than normal. A progressive trough will move across the southern U.S. Friday through Sunday, and will bring low chances of showers and possible an isolated thunderstorm to the forecast area Friday evening into Saturday. Delayed onset of precipitation chances toward later in the day on Friday, as it may take atmosphere time to saturate given dry, easterly trajectory. Current thermal profiles indicate precipitation should remain liquid through the entirety of the event. Passage of mid-level thermal trough may lead to some dynamic cooling, and will steepen lapse rates slightly; however, not enough to mention thunder at time. Showers should taper to an end by Saturday evening as upper low passes into the lower Mississippi Valley. Upper ridging builds back into region by mid- day Sunday, and expect a return to sunshine by Sunday afternoon for most of the area. Temperatures will remain cooler than normal Friday and Saturday, but may flirt with seasonal values by Sunday. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 256 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018 Upper level ridge will keep conditions dry on Monday, then a short wave from northern stream will drop southeast across the plains to merge into large scale trough across eastern U.S. The net result is another chance of rain/showers late Monday into Tuesday. Again thermal profiles support only liquid precipitation. Lapse rates again marginal, but would not be surprised to hear a rumble of thunder. Broad northwest flow builds across region late in the period, but will contribute to downslope low level flow, which should help temperatures to climb back toward seasonal highs in the middle to upper 60s by late in the period. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) Issued at 1210 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018 VFR conditions at all sites through the TAF period. As a high pressure sits overhead today, winds will remain light and variable through the day. Overnight, the high pressure will move off to the east and light winds will become more easterly, then southeasterly toward daybreak. A few high clouds may be present through the day and overnight, however skies are expected to be mainly clear today. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Fortin LONG TERM...Fortin AVIATION...HD

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