Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 230438 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 1138 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 146 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018 A departing closed mid/upper level low will continue to push east into the Mississippi River valley tonight. Bands of mid and high clouds on the northwest side of the closed low continue to drift southeast through the forecast area but should begin to diminish later tonight. A weak ridge of surface high pressure will slide south through the area through the night keeping winds fairly light. Overnight lows should bottom out in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Weak upper level ridging and gradually increasing southerly low- level flow should provide a pleasant day Monday with highs topping out in the upper 60s to around 70 with fairly light wind. Next chance for measurable precipitation arrives Tuesday afternoon ahead of an approaching shortwave trough moving southeast through the western Dakotas. This trough will push a surface cold front through the area Tuesday. The bulk of sub-freezing 850mb temps will remain well to our west so area looks to see only rain with this system. 12Z Sunday model runs have all come in higher with QPF amounts and as a result, pops have been significantly increased from previous forecasts, into the likely category. Rain chances continue overnight Tuesday into Wednesday until the upper trough axis finally shifts southeast of the area Wednesday morning. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday) Issued at 146 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018 There will be another quick chance for rain during the day Thursday as a fast-moving surface cold front slides southeast through the region. This system will also bring slightly colder air in with it which should drop Friday morning lows into the mid to upper 30s, which are the coldest of the 7-day forecast. Upper-level ridging will build across the western states through the weekend with a gradual warming trend across the Central Plains. The 12z ECMWF, Canadian and GFS vary greatly on what happens Saturday with the GFS bringing a stormy, southwest upper flow into the Central Plains while the 12z ECMWF and Canadian keep the upper ridge building overhead. Have continued with SuperBlend pops at 20 percent for Saturday into Sunday due to great uncertainty and for consistency. && .AVIATION...
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(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) Issued at 1134 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018 VFR conditions through the period.
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&& .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kern LONG TERM...Kern AVIATION...DeWald

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