Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Omaha/Valley, NE

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000 FXUS63 KOAX 200818 AFDOAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE 318 AM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018 .SHORT TERM...
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(Today through Sunday) Issued at 259 AM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018 A very deep trough over the Utah-Arizona line was gradually shifting east early Friday morning. This storm system has a substantial area of diffluent upper level flow ahead of its track, and upper level cloud cover has been steadily overtaking eastern Nebraska and spreading into western Iowa. The cloud cover is currently on the thin side, but has at least acted to stabilize temperatures in the 30s early this morning. The surface pressure gradient was also increasing over the high plains this morning, with local winds turning out of the east and southeast, with expectations of a gradual increase and a few gusts in the 15-20 mph range later today. All told, Friday will be pleasant with highs expected to climb into the 50s or lower 60s. The primary uncertainty regarding temperatures will be the thickness of the mid/high clouds. Currently believe the clouds will be dense enough by mid day to limit temperatures a bit, but if thinner could potentially add 2-4 degrees to those highs...or receive the opposite result if clouds are on the dense side. By this evening, expect a gradual deepening of the moisture profile and strengthening of the large scale ascent as the upper trough drifts closer. A broad area of rain showers is expected to slowly move east across Nebraska and neighboring states, potentially reaching western counties in the forecast area in the 6-9 PM time frame. Low level flow will remain southeasterly, which is a relatively dry source region and should inhibit rainfall initially. Do see a pretty good chance for rain showers later on in the night, mainly southwest of an Albion to Columbus to Lincoln to Falls city line as the upper low reorganizes a bit farther to the southeast. Any showers should taper off on Saturday morning although cloud cover will remain for much of the day Saturday and into Sunday. Even with the clouds, temperatures will be mild with highs in the 50s on Saturday and back to the upper 50s or lower 60s on Sunday. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 259 AM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018 Late Monday into Tuesday, a more compact trough is expected to track across the northern two tiers of states in the CONUS, with strong agreement among model guidance. This vorticity maxima is then predicted to take more of a southeasterly track as it drops into the longer-wave trough pattern over the eastern CONUS. As it does so, see a good chance for scattered to widespread precipitation across the forecast area. Temperature profiles would currently point to rain as the precipitation type. There are some indications of weak instability along the advancing cold front, but not enough to suggest a likelihood of thunderstorms at this point. Do expect windy conditions with this compact storm as it crosses the region though. Northwest flow conditions are expected to persist through the remainder of the forecast period with highs likely holding below normal most days, but at least with some good potential for highs in the 50s or lower 60s while lows hold in the 30s or lower 40s.
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&& .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at 1141 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018 VFR conditions are expected through the entire TAF cycle. Light easterly surface winds will gradually become southeast through Friday morning. && .OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...None. IA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Barjenbruch LONG TERM...Barjenbruch AVIATION...Kern

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