Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 251406 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1006 AM EDT Sun Aug 25 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds to the north before drifting east during the first half of the work week. A cold front approaches Wednesday and passes through the region Thursday. Another cold front passes through late Friday into Saturday. High pressure returns late Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Just minor updates to temperatures, dewpoints and cloud coverage with this morning update. Otherwise, forecast remains on track. Clouds have been slow to develop and advect into the area so far late this morning. Still thinking that skies will become mostly cloudy for a period across coastal areas this afternoon, but may have several hours of partly to mostly sunny skies first this morning. In addition to the clouds, persistent east to northeast flow will result in a chance of light rain or drizzle today, primarily across coastal areas. Precipitation amounts are expected to remain light, with only a few hundredths of an inch of rain at most. Across the interior, conditions are expected to remain dry despite an increase in clouds. Afternoon highs will remain several degrees below normal, in the mid 70s. There is a high risk of rip current development at Atlantic Ocean beaches today. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... While any lingering light rain/drizzle comes to an end tonight, low level moisture will linger into at least Monday morning as easterly flow continues with high pressure remaining north of the region. This will lead to continued mostly cloudy conditions along the coast before more sunshine returns by Monday afternoon. Temperatures on Monday will remain below normal, with highs once again only topping out in the mid 70s. There is a high risk of rip current development at Atlantic Ocean beaches on Monday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Ridging along the east coast of the United States to start the period will drift into the western Atlantic by Tuesday as a longwave trough from near Alaska digs into the northern plains and upper midwest. This longwave trough will send a couple of cold fronts through the region Thursday and Friday. The strongest front will be late Wednesday night into Thursday. The upper trough weakens Thursday with the flow becoming more zonal during Friday when another, and weaker, cold front crosses the region. The area will remain dry on Tuesday as high pressure remains in control, with only an increase in high clouds ahead of the cold front traversing the Great Lakes. With the front Wednesday into Thursday both CAPE and instability will be limited, so will have showers with only isolated thunder possible. There are some timing differences in the timing of the frontal passage, but sided with the faster guidance. Another weak cold front passes through Friday into early Saturday with just a slight chance of showers as there will be little moisture or forcing with the front. With the upper trough weakening have slowed the timing of this second front. After temperatures a few degrees below normal on Tuesday, near normal temperatures are expected through the remainder of the long term period, with highs generally in the low to mid 80s and overnight lows falling into the 60s. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure builds over New England through Monday. NE winds 10-15 kt today. Gusts up to 20 kt are likely for all terminals except KSWF. Gusts end this evening with NE winds around 10 kt overnight into Monday morning. Mainly VFR through this evening. There could be brief MVFR ceilings, mainly across eastern Long Island and southeast Connecticut this morning or early afternoon. There is also a chance of some sprinkles or pockets of light rain near the coast. MVFR ceilings likely develop early Monday morning. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY... .Mon...MVFR possible early, then VFR. .Tue...VFR. .Wed...MVFR or lower possible in showers and isolated thunderstorms. .Thu...Mainly VFR. Morning showers possible. && .MARINE... A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the ocean waters through Monday as strong northeasterly flow will result in winds gusting to 25 to 30 kt and seas building to 4 to 6 feet. While winds will gradually diminish during the day on Monday, seas will likely remain elevated into Monday night. The flow the weakens into midweek as high pressure retreats off the New England coast and a cold front approaches. With the approach of the front winds also gradually shift to the southeast and south. Sub SCA conditions are expected by Tuesday and continuing into Thursday. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic impacts are anticipated through the end of the week. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A prolonged period of easterly flow will gradually increase tide levels into mid week. Localized minor coastal flooding is possible with Monday evening high tides along the south shore back bays of Queens and Nassau counties, with the threat of at least isolated minor coastal flooding continuing during the evening high tide cycles through the mid week period. && .EQUIPMENT... NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) remains off the air. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075- 080-081-178-179. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for ANZ350-353-355. && $$

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