Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 171158 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 758 AM EDT Tue May 17 2022 .SYNOPSIS... A secondary cold front moves over the waters today. High pressure will briefly return on Wednesday, then a weak disturbance moves through Thursday as a warm front slowly approaches from the southwest. The warm front will remain south on Friday and lift through on Saturday. A cold front approaching on Sunday will move through Sunday night, followed by strong high pressure building eastward on Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Forecast is on track. The skies are completely clear over the CWA for the first time in several days. Minor adjustments were made to capture latest obs and trends. The cold front that moved through the area overnight is now well offshore and a secondary cold front is approaching from the west. We remain under cyclonic flow aloft with an upper level low over southeastern Canada. A piece of energy rotates around the upper low and swings over the area today along with the associated aforementioned secondary cold front. The front moves through dry, with gusty conditions expected in the afternoon. Forecast soundings show deep mixing up to ~750 mb. A northwest flow will gust up to 25 kt for most, with a few gusts up to 30 kt possible. Morning sunshine will give way to afternoon scattered to broken clouds ~7000 ft. Highs today will be about 5 degrees above normal for mid-May. NYC and northeast NJ will reach the mid to upper 70s and elsewhere will reach the lower to mid 70s. The air will have a much drier feel to it, with dewpoints in the mid 40s by the afternoon. Skies clear out tonight, but winds probably don`t become light enough to really take advantage of radiational cooling in the usual spots. Low temperatures will be in the upper 40s to low 50s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Weak, brief high pressure builds in on Wednesday. Aloft, trough axis moves offshore and there will be slight height rises over the area. Once again a sunny morning gives way to clouds by late morning/early afternoon, but this time it will be mid and high level clouds ahead of a frontal system off to our west. A slightly cooler and drier day than today is expected. High temperatures will be in the upper 60s to low 70s and dewpoints will be as low as the lower 30s in the afternoon. The next chance for the area to see rain is Wednesday night through Thursday. Upper level flow over the area is more zonal and shortwave energy will pass just to the north. There is some disagreement in the guidance in placement and intensity of the shortwave. The NAM has the most aggressive solution and farthest south. In turn, there are differences in surface low pressure development, placement and strength. Regardless of the solution, was confident enough to include likely PoPs for the western half of the area early Thursday. A warm front will approach from the south and likely remain just out of the area. Upper level trough axis passes offshore late Thursday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... The warm front will remain south on Friday and lift through on Saturday. A cold front approaching on Sunday will move through Sunday night, followed by strong high pressure building eastward on Monday. As the flow aloft amplifies, with a building ridge over the ECONUS, the front should lift through early Sat, with one day of heat likely before an upper trough over the northern tier of states drives a cold front toward the area on Sunday and through Sunday night with a round of showers/tstms. NBM temps look too low for Fri and used a blend of the NBM 50th/75th percentiles and GFS/ECMWF MOS, which are in better agreement, This yields high temps reaching at least 90 from NYC north/west and along the CT I-84 corridor, with mid 90s possible in the lower elevations west of the Hudson. Along the coasts of SE CT and the the south shore of Long Island upper 70s are likely, with 80s elsewhere. With dewpoints in the lower 60s, heat index values should be close to actual temps. With the front yest to move through on Sunday, trended temps upward there too, with upper 70s to mid 80s, and NBM probabilistic guidance used above suggests warmer, with 90 in NE NJ. High pressure returning on Mon should bring temps back closer to average for late May. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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SKC to start into this morning. Another cold front will approach this afternoon with BKN VFR cigs, and move through late day into early eve. W winds 10 kt or less should start to increase after 13Z-14Z, reaching 15-20G25kt by afternoon. A few gusts over 30 kt may be possible at times this afternoon. Winds then shift NW and start to diminish late day into early eve with the cold fropa. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Cannot rule out a few gusts over 30 kt from about 17Z-22Z, but they should be sporadic at most. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .Wednesday...VFR. .Wednesday night...Showers likely mainly after midnight. MVFR cond likely, IFR possible late. .Thursday...Chance of showers AM. MVFR cond likely, IFR possible early. .Friday and Saturday...VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
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&& .MARINE... A SCA is in effect for the eastern most ocean zone, NYC Harbor and the western most Sound zone. For the eastern most ocean zone through 00z this evening, seas will remain at 5 ft through the day and wind gusts in the afternoon will occasionally reach 25 kt. For the NYC Harbor and western most Sound zone 16z - 22z this afternoon, winds will gust up to 25 kt this afternoon. Winds and waves remain below SCA criteria Wednesday and Thursday. Mostly quiet longer term, with a chance of minimal SCA conds on the ocean waters Sunday night with a cold frontal passage. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic concerns through the beginning of next week. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... Astronomical tides are running higher than usual. Water levels could approach minor benchmarks mainly on the Nassau south shore bays tonight through Thu night. Additional statements and advisories may be needed. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ335-338. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BG/JT NEAR TERM...JT SHORT TERM...JT LONG TERM...BG AVIATION...BG MARINE...BG/JT HYDROLOGY...BG/JT TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...

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