-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
423
FXUS61 KOKX 090254
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1054 PM EDT Sun Mar 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Marine dense fog advisory expanded to the eastern Sound and
bays.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Through tonight, in addition to ocean dense fog, fog could
redevelop once again across other waters and may move into
parts of the coastline east of NYC.

2) For early this week, a warmer airmass develops. Expect
daytime temperatures to be warmer than normal. Possible fog for
night into early morning, particularly Tuesday night into early
Wednesday morning.

3) A strong frontal system impacts the area Wednesday Night
into Thursday with the next chance for showers followed by more
seasonably cool air to end next week.

4) Additional light mixed precipitation is possible Friday
night into Saturday from a passing Alberta Clipper system to our
north.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGE 1...
Through tonight, besides the ocean fog, more fog could
redevelop once again across the other waters and may move into
parts of the coastline east of NYC.

Dense fog still present this afternoon across the ocean. This
is expected to decrease somewhat into tonight but will linger
especially across most eastern sections. Winds are forecast to
become very light and temperatures cooling tonight will lead to
near saturation in low levels once again. The lack of vertical
mixing could very well help enable the formation of fog
especially for those areas that still have moisture on the
ground. The moisture on the ground is from residual snowmelt
plus the earlier showers that traversed portions of the region.

For the forecast, put in areas of fog on the ocean waters and patchy
fog across eastern sections of the region and non-ocean waters
that spreads more west late tonight into early Monday morning.
However, the fog formation is expected to stay east of NYC. The
forecast guidance from MOS is indicative of this fog partially
and the HRRR and RAP also show fog in some of their forecasts.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
For early this week, a warmer airmass develops. Expect daytime
temperatures to be warmer than normal. Possible fog for night
into early morning, particularly Tuesday night into early
Wednesday morning. Locally dense fog will be possible.

High pressure will be diffuse, based in the Western Atlantic and
will help allow for a SW synoptic flow that will enable warm air
advection.

Models show an increase in the 850mb temperatures for the early
part of this week, near 9 to 10 degrees C by late Monday
afternoon and near 11 degrees C by late Tuesday afternoon.
Models have already showed signs of being underdone in terms of
their high temperature forecast.

Therefore, went with higher end forecast temperatures during the
day for both Monday and Tuesday, using a combination of NBM
along with the NBM 75th percentile and NBM 90th percentile.
Plenty of sun along with southerly flow will help bring in this
warmer air, especially away from the coast. Along the coast,
temperatures will be relatively cooler with more maritime
influence.

The range of highs forecast Monday are from the 50s along much
of the immediate coastline to near 70 for locations north and
west of NYC. The range of highs forecast Tuesday actually
increases, still mostly in the 50s but some more lower 60s
along parts of the coast to low to mid 70s for interior
locations. Temperatures could be a few degrees warmer then
forecast as indicated in the MAV guidance but did not want to
lean too much towards the highest temperature guidance just yet.

See climate section for records for Monday March 9 and
Tuesday March 10. Some locations may get quite close to their
records especially if temperatures end up being a few degrees
higher than forecast.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
Low pressure and an associated strong frontal system will approach
the area late Wednesday ahead of a deepening upper-level trough. The
system`s warm front will pass on Wednesday which will lead to mainly
isolated light rain. This warm front will then likely lie well to
the north Wednesday night with the trailing cold front slowly making
its way into the area through Thursday morning.

Chances for showers increase very late Wednesday night and then
become likely Thursday morning into early Thursday afternoon on
Thursday. Timing of the cold front passage still varies a little in
the model guidance, but there has been continued convergence of
solutions towards Thursday morning into early Thursday afternoon,
sometime between 12Z to 18Z.

Thursday does not appear to be a washout since the area will be in
the warm sector, and the showers will likely be in a band along and
immediately ahead of the cold front passage with a lull in
precipitation prior to the cold front on Wednesday night, especially
east and at the coast.

Moderate to locally heavy downpours are possible. PWATs peak between
1.2 to 1.5" which is right at or exceeding the max moving average
according to SPC`s Sounding Climatology Page. While low end chances
exist for isolated thunderstorms, the amount of elevated instability
is uncertain and have elected to keep mention of thunder out of the
forecast for now. Strong S flow ahead of the front should keep the
low levels stable.

Temperatures will drop quickly behind the cold front passage.
There is a chance highs for the day occur early on if the front
moves through earlier. Current forecast highs are in the 50s, but if
the front is slower, then interior locations could be a bit warmer.
Temperatures should fall back into the 40s in the evening, and then
potentially the upper 20s and low 30s at night. Some guidance
lingers a few showers behind the front due to the passage of the
upper trough. A few wet snow flakes cannot be ruled out in the
colder air if any shower activity lingers Thursday evening, but by
Friday night we should be well enough entrenched in dry continental
air to mitigate any additional showers.

Southerly flow ahead of the front increases with a modest low level
jet, but the warmer air moving over the colder waters should negate
any of the higher winds from mixing to the surface. Gusts 30-35 mph
are possible though Wednesday night and Thursday ahead of the front.

Seasonably cool temperatures are likely to end the week into the
first half of the weekend.

.KEY MESSAGE 4...
An Alberta clipper low swings out of Canada and into the Great Lakes
region Thursday into Friday. This will pass north of the area Friday
night into Saturday. This will be a much weaker system compared to
the Wednesday-Thursday system.

Not expecting any significant impacts aside from light precipitation
and breezy winds. A rain or a rain/snow mix at the coast and a snow
or rain/snow mix in the interior.

Some guidance still varies on how far south the precipitation
extends. Its possible the precip may be limited to northern interior
locations with coastal locations remaining dry, but this forecast
remains in flux.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Weak high pressure will build into the area tonight and remain
across the area Monday.

Mainly a VFR forecast. IFR however for GON with fog which
dissipates Mon mrng.

Lgt and vrb winds tngt. For Monday, SW winds less that 10 kt in
the morning will increase to around 10 kt by early afternoon
with gusts 15-20kt. Expect a seabreeze enhancement at KJFK in
the afternoon as winds become more southerly. Winds become lgt
and vrb aft 00Z all arpts.

     NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

No unscheduled amendments expected.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday Night: VFR. Light and VRB winds.

Tuesday: VFR.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, MVFR or lower possible at times, especially
at night with a chance of showers. S wind gusts 20-25 kt afternoon
into night.

Thursday: MVFR or lower possible at times with showers, mainly in
the morning. Isolated thunderstorm possible. W/SW wind gusts 25-30
kt, diminishing at night.

Friday: Chance of MVFR in rain/snow showers, mainly at night. S wind
gusts 20-25kt, becoming W at night.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
Dense Fog advisory in effect for ocean waters, ern Sound, and
ern bays until 8AM EDT Monday morning.

More fog could develop tonight on other waters and also into
early Monday morning as well as the next few night into early
morning periods. Dense fog will be possible.

Otherwise, winds are expected to remain below SCA thresholds for
all waters through Tuesday night. However, there are some higher
seas across the ocean zones near 5 to 6 ft and without much of
an offshore push, the higher ocean seas will linger into
tonight. The SCA from Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY
remains until midnight. The SCA from Fire Island Inlet NY to
Montauk Point NY remains until 6AM Monday.

For Monday through Tuesday night, seas are forecast to remain
below SCA thresholds on all waters.

An approaching frontal system Wednesday begins to increase
winds on the ocean, with widespread SCA winds Wednesday night
into Thursday. There is low confidence with potential gales due
to warm air moving over the colder ocean. Ocean seas will build
through the period and potentially range from 8 to 12 ft. Winds
and seas may begin subsiding Thursday night.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Below are record high temperatures for Monday March 9th and
Tuesday March 10th.

Monday March 9th:
EWR: 82/2016
BDR: 64/2021
NYC: 77/2016
LGA: 75/2016,2000
JFK: 67/1973
ISP: 68/2016

Tuesday March 10th:
EWR: 81/2016
BDR: 70/2006
NYC: 79/2016
LGA: 78/2016
JFK: 71/2006
ISP: 73/2016

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for ANZ332-340-350-
     353-355.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ350-353.
     Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ355.

&&

$$