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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KOKX 250247
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1047 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains near the region through Thursday. A warm
front approaches Thursday night, then low pressure and cold
front pass Friday followed by brief high pressure. Another weak
low passes Sunday, followed by high pressure briefly building
across the region into the early week. Another frontal system
will impact the area Tuesday into Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
High clouds were filtering in from the west ahead of the next
system moving into the Ohio Valley . This will likely result in
varying amounts of clouds during the overnight. Otherwise, just
some minor adjustments to fit with the latest obs.

High pressure building over the region will result diminishing
north winds. Expect lows to fall to near 40 in the usually
cooler spots. Otherwise, most locations will be in the lower to
mid 40s, except around 50 NYC metro.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A warm front approaches the area on Thursday, resulting in an
increase in cloud cover through the day. Weak warm advection and
a shortwave passing over the region could set off some light
rain late in the day into the evening. The chance is low and
will only go with a 20 POP for now. With little to no
instability, will keep thunder out of the forecast. Highs on
Thursday climb into the lower and middle 60s. If the timing of
the clouds is a bit delayed, temperatures may have to be
increased into the upper 60s, especially across NE NJ and NYC.

Rain chances gradually increase overnight Thursday. Lows
will fall into the 40s and lower 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Warm advection precipitation will move through fairly quickly Friday
morning. Although instability appears limited, height and
temperature falls aloft may lead to at least marginal elevated
instability which could locally enhance rainfall rates for a brief
period in the morning. With the morning short wave and warm front
generally passing to the north of the local area by afternoon, a
short period of subsidence may limit more widespread coverage of
showers into the day, with only intermittent showers until broader
height falls occur with the approaching system. The intensity of the
surface low will very much depend on the phasing aloft of two short
waves, though regardless, conditions will become favorable for a
line of heavy showers and thunderstorms along the cold front, as
flow aloft will generally be parallel to the surface boundary. With
strong southerly flow, PWATs will rapidly increase as Gulf moisture
is advected northward. Current model forecasts project near record
daily values when compared against sounding climatology. Exact
hydrologic impacts will be difficult to pinpoint given the fast
motion of any cells that develop, but more details are provided in
the hydrology section below.

As the system moves east, strong cold advection quickly follows,
with winds becoming increasingly strong and gusty into Saturday.
Depending on the intensity of the departing low pressure system,
winds may approach advisory levels. Although most deterministic
models suggest dry conditions, with the strong upper low not
completely departing until evening, there is potential for at least
isolated showers to develop into the afternoon.

The flow aloft then becomes more zonal into the remainder of the
extended, with a series of embedded short waves leading to the
potential for showers most days. The next chance of rain will be for
Sunday as a weak surface low passes through. Considerable
uncertainty then exists into the mid week.

There will be minor fluctuations in temperatures, but in
general, temperatures should remain within a few degrees of climo
through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure builds over the northeast tonight then slides
offshore on Thursday as a warm front approaches from the south.

VFR expected through the TAF period.

NW-N winds less than 10kt overnight, then become southerly
Thursday afternoon around 10 kt.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.Thursday night-Friday...MVFR conds and rain developing Thu
night, continuing Friday with isolated thunder. IFR possible by
Friday afternoon.
.Saturday...VFR. W to NW gusts to 25 kt.
.Sunday...A chance of showers with MVFR conditions.
.Monday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Northerly winds over generally less than 10 kt as high pressure
builds in from the NW overnight. Winds on Thursday will veer
around to the S by afternoon before becoming southeast Thursday
night ahead of a warm front.

Wind speeds increase Friday night into Saturday behind a cold
front, with SCA conditions increasingly likely on all waters.
Winds diminish Saturday night as high pressure briefly builds,
though ocean seas will be slow to subside. Another low and
frontal system are forecast to approach from the west Sunday,
and winds increase as they back to the S/SW, allowing any ocean
seas that have subsided below 5 ft to quickly build once again.
These winds then shift once again to the W as the front passes
Sunday night, with ocean seas remaining at SCA levels into
Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Next chance for significant rain of at least a half inch, to
possibly over an inch in spots, will occur late Thursday night and
Friday. Quick motion of the cells may limit a more widespread
flooding threat, with nuisance urban/poor draining flooding the main
concerns at this time.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) remains off
the air.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BC/MD
NEAR TERM...BC/DW
SHORT TERM...BC/DW
LONG TERM...MD
AVIATION...24
MARINE...BC/MD/DW
HYDROLOGY...BC/MD
EQUIPMENT...//