Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 222036 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 336 PM EST Fri Feb 22 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains in control through Saturday. A deep low passing several hundred miles northwest of the region will produce unsettled weather Saturday night into Sunday. High pressure builds across the region through the first half of the week. A low pressure may impact the region during the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... Strong upper ridge will continue to amplify over the eastern states tonight as a storm system develops across the Plains. High clouds will continue stream across the region with a strong subtropical jet aloft. The region also lies near the right entrance region of a 140-160 kt jet to our northeast. Model profiles indicate there could be some thinning of the cirrus across southeast Connecticut late tonight, but overall mostly cloudy skies are forecast across the area. Temperatures are a bit tricky due to the cloud cover, but lows generally in the middle 20s inland to the upper 20s and low 30s elsewhere are forecast. If the high clouds end up thicker, then these lows may need to be raised a few degrees. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... Upper ridge axis settles over the eastern seaboard on Saturday with surface high pressure gradually sliding offshore through the day. The main change to the forecast for the daytime hours on Saturday was to remove PoPs. Dprog/Dt on the models indicates a slower trend with the onset of precipitation with the next system. Clouds will gradually thicken and lower, especially Saturday afternoon and evening. Temperatures should be near seasonable levels. Deepening low pressure tracks up into the Great Lakes region Saturday night. Warm advection and a approaching warm front from the south will develop precipitation, especially overnight. The latest trend continues to be for a slower onset timing of the precipitation. The overall synoptic pattern is not supportive of frozen precip. Temperatures in the low levels of the atmosphere will rise well above 0C through the night, with 850 mb temps progged to be near +10C early Sunday morning. Surface temperatures could start out near freezing across the interior of the Lower Hudson Valley and interior southern Connecticut. It is here where a brief period of freezing rain at the onset is possible. Otherwise, this event will be in the form of plain rain. Rain continues Sunday morning and it could be locally heavy at times. The atmosphere dries out quickly late Sunday morning with rain ending from west to east around midday. The warm front will try to push north of the area, but may not completely do so. Temperatures should be able to reach the low 50s south and middle to upper 40s inland. If the warm front does lift north, then temperatures could end up a bit higher in the afternoon. A trailing cold front moves through late afternoon and early evening. A shower cannot be ruled out with this front, so PoPs have been maintained in the slight chance to chance range. Any strong winds look to hold off until Sunday night behind the cold front. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure builds toward the region Sunday night, behind a departing cold front. With a strong pressure gradient, winds will likely increase Sunday night reaching wind adv criteria and continuing into Monday. Winds will lessen Monday night as high pressure continues to build across the region. A week system might impact the are on Wednesday bringing light snow showers. High pressure builds in for Thursday, bringing drier conditions through the end of the week. Temperatures will be below seasonable levels through Thursday, then bounce back to normal levels by the end of the week. && .AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure builds from the Great Lakes through Saturday morning, then moves off the New England coast Saturday afternoon. VFR. NW-N winds around 10 kt diminish around 22Z, and gradually become more northernly. Winds will veer to N this evening, then NE overnight. At the outlying terminals winds will become light and variable. By late Saturday morning winds will become E, then SE during the afternoon, less than 10 kt. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component fcsts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KLGA TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KEWR TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KTEB TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. KHPN TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments. KISP TAF Comments: No unscheduled amendments expected. .OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... .Saturday afternoon...VFR. .Saturday night and Sunday...IFR or lower with rain developing. Mixed precipitation is briefly possible at the onset at KSWF. .Sunday night and Monday...VFR. Monday W-NW winds 15-25KT G35-45KT. Isolated stronger gusts possible. .Tuesday...VFR. .Wednesday...MVFR with a chance of light snow. && .MARINE... High pressure builds over the waters through Saturday with sub- SCA conditions. Winds and seas build Saturday night ahead of the next storm system. A warm front lifts over the waters Sunday morning and winds especially on the ocean are likely to reach 25 to 30 kt. Ocean seas should also build to 5 to 6 ft. SCA conditions should continue on the ocean Sunday afternoon ahead of a cold front. Winds across the area waters increase Sunday night behind a cold front. Gales will be likely late Sunday night into Monday with storm force gusts possible. However, it is still too early to issue any headlines, but will continue to mention in the HWO. Winds gradually diminish Monday night, falling below SCA levels by late Tuesday. Seas and winds remain below SCA levels through Wednesday before increasing back to SCA levels on Wednesday night. && .HYDROLOGY... Around 1-1.5 inches of rain is forecast Saturday night into Sunday morning. Some minor urban or poor drainage flooding will be possible. Otherwise, no hydrologic impacts are anticipated through next week. && .CLIMATE... This has been a tough winter in the Tri-State Area overall to retain cold air long enough when precipitation has fallen. Most of our events this winter have been overrunning set-ups that have seen the cold air largely retreat just before or shortly after the onset of precipitation. As a result, we`ve seen below normal snow at all of our climate stations for the snow season to date and especially for meteorological winter. For Central Park, the seasonal total as of today stands at 10.0 inches which is 9.2 inches below normal and ranks as the 31st least snowiest season to date based on records back to 1869. However, 6.4 inches of this fell during the November 15th storm. The total for meteorological winter (the months of December, January and February) is just 3.6 inches which if we get no more measurable snow this month would finish as the 7th least snowiest such period on record dating back to 1869. There is still the possibility of snow before the month of February closes out so this ranking is not final. Elsewhere around the area this December and January ranked as the second least snowiest such period at LaGuardia back to 1940 with 0.6 inch (only exceeded by 1994-1995 with 0.3 inch) and at Islip back to 1963 with 0.9 inch (only exceeded by a trace in 1994-1995). 1994-1995 was a winter largely marked by ONE major snowstorm in early February that accounted for the majority of that season`s snow. March in this part of the world and even a handful of Aprils have had their share of notable snows so winter - or at least the snow season - is not over yet. Some may remember the winter of 1997-1998 when the seasonal snow total stood at 0.5 inch until late March in Central Park when the latest inch or more event ever took place on the 22nd depositing 5.0 inches. Ironically 5 days later highs soared into the 80s and many trees started to sprout their leaves for the spring marking one of the earliest leaf sproutings in this area in memory. && .EQUIPMENT... NYC Central Park winds are out of service until further notice. Loss of data is due to a severed cable. Parts are on order. NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) will remain off the air for an extended period of time. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Fig/DS NEAR TERM...DS SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM...Fig AVIATION...19 MARINE...Fig/DS HYDROLOGY...Fig/DS CLIMATE... EQUIPMENT...

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