Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 270243 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 1043 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A surface trough will pass through the area tonight. High pressure will then follow for the remainder of the work week. A weak cold front will approach late Friday night, stall over the area on Saturday, then pass east on Sunday as low pressure develops east of New England. Another cold front will approach some time from late Tuesday into Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... Cluster of showers and thunderstorms across the Lower Hudson Valley continues to weaken with loss of heating. The cluster has also encountered less instability and drier air and should continue to weaken further the next few hours. There could be some brief pockets of heavy downpours, but no organized convection is no longer anticipated. Dry conditions prevail after midnight. A middle level shortwave and surface trough will continue to move across the region tonight. The surface trough may struggle pushing through eastern Long Island and southeast Connecticut. These locations may see stratus/fog that is about 40 miles to the SE of Montauk Point expand NW overnight, but uncertain in how far west and its extent. NARRE coverage appears to be to aggressive compared to current GOES-16 Nighttime Microphysics RGB. Have included patchy fog across the forks of Long Island and southeast Connecticut. If fog does develop or expand NW, it could become locally dense in these locations. Otherwise, partly cloudy skies overnight with lows in the 60s, about 3 to 5 degrees above normal. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... Any patchy fog/low clouds across far eastern Long Island and southeast CT will quickly lift and dissipate Thursday morning. Heights will gradually build on Thursday with a broad upper ridge encompassing much of the Lower 48. This will result in unseasonably warm temperatures for both highs Thursday and lows Thursday night. Highs will generally be in the 80s except along the immediate Atlantic coast, with lows in the 60s. There will be few if any clouds. Winds will be relatively light during the time with a thermal trough setting up across the area by afternoon. This will prompt the development of a seabreeze, otherwise most locations will be W-NW at less than 10 mph. There is a low rip risk for rip current development on Thursday. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Quasi-zonal flow aloft to start will veer NW into this weekend as an upper ridge builds into the northern Plains, and a cutoff low drops from eastern Canada into New England. As this does so, a weak sfc cold front will approach late Fri night and stall over the area on Sat with chances of showers/tstms, with the best chances Sat afternoon/evening. An additional round of showers/tstms may occur on Sunday as the upper low passes to the NE and a vigorous mid level vort max/cold pool clip eastern sections. Generally fair wx expected on Mon, then as the cutoff low passes out into the north Atlantic and the ridge to the west flattens, could see chances for showers/tstms. Timing uncertain and the GFS is likely too progressive, so think best chances will be more in the time frame from late Tue into Tue night, possibly Wed morning. Temps Fri/Sat will be very warm, with lower 90s in urban NE NJ and mid/upper 80s elsewhere. Heat index values should be very close to fcst temps, with a worst case scenario of a one-day episode occurrence of heat index values touching 95 only in NE NJ if tstms/cloud cover do not keep temps down, and if high temps and afternoon dewpoints are both a couple of degrees higher than fcst. Temps Sunday/Monday should be more seasonable, then may warm up to a few degrees above normal going into mid week. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... A weakening cold front moves into the region tonight. High pressure returns overnight into Thursday. VFR. Some showers and thunderstorms which moved into the far northwestern terminals have been gradually dissipating over the last hour. Most if not all the terminals should remain dry for the remainder of the TAF period. W to SW flow will become northerly less than 10 kt in the NYC metro area tonight, with light and variable winds at the outlying terminals. Afternoon seabreezes are expected once again on Thursday. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY... .Thursday night Friday...Mainly VFR. Sea breezes likely on Friday. .Saturday and Sunday...Chance of showers and thunderstorms with MVFR or lower conditions. Otherwise, VFR. .Monday...Mainly VFR. && .MARINE... Monitoring stratus/fog southeast of the waters east of Moriches Inlet. This may continue expanding NW towards the waters near Montauk Point overnight. The fog could become dense. Any low clouds and fog should lift after sunrise Thursday morning. Sub-SCA conditions are expected through Saturday. As low pressure develops E of New England on Sunday and a cold front passes SE, winds and seas may briefly approach SCA criteria mainly on the ocean and near shore waters. && .HYDROLOGY... No concerns attm into early next week. && .EQUIPMENT... NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) remains off the air. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. NJ...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Goodman/DW NEAR TERM...DS/DW SHORT TERM...DW LONG TERM...Goodman AVIATION...BC MARINE...Goodman/DS/DW HYDROLOGY...Goodman/DW EQUIPMENT... is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.