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000
FXUS61 KOKX 270243
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
1043 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A surface trough will pass through the area tonight. High
pressure will then follow for the remainder of the work week. A
weak cold front will approach late Friday night, stall over the
area on Saturday, then pass east on Sunday as low pressure
develops east of New England. Another cold front will approach
some time from late Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Cluster of showers and thunderstorms across the Lower Hudson
Valley continues to weaken with loss of heating. The cluster has
also encountered less instability and drier air and should
continue to weaken further the next few hours. There could be
some brief pockets of heavy downpours, but no organized
convection is no longer anticipated. Dry conditions prevail
after midnight.

A middle level shortwave and surface trough will continue to
move across the region tonight. The surface trough may struggle
pushing through eastern Long Island and southeast Connecticut.
These locations may see stratus/fog that is about 40 miles to
the SE of Montauk Point expand NW overnight, but uncertain in
how far west and its extent. NARRE coverage appears to be to
aggressive compared to current GOES-16 Nighttime Microphysics
RGB. Have included patchy fog across the forks of Long Island
and southeast Connecticut. If fog does develop or expand NW, it
could become locally dense in these locations.

Otherwise, partly cloudy skies overnight with lows in the 60s,
about 3 to 5 degrees above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Any patchy fog/low clouds across far eastern Long Island and
southeast CT will quickly lift and dissipate Thursday morning.

Heights will gradually build on Thursday with a broad upper ridge
encompassing much of the Lower 48. This will result in
unseasonably warm temperatures for both highs Thursday and lows
Thursday night. Highs will generally be in the 80s except along
the immediate Atlantic coast, with lows in the 60s. There will
be few if any clouds.

Winds will be relatively light during the time with a thermal
trough setting up across the area by afternoon. This will prompt
the development of a seabreeze, otherwise most locations will be
W-NW at less than 10 mph.

There is a low rip risk for rip current development on
Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Quasi-zonal flow aloft to start will veer NW into this weekend
as an upper ridge builds into the northern Plains, and a cutoff
low drops from eastern Canada into New England. As this does
so, a weak sfc cold front will approach late Fri night and
stall over the area on Sat with chances of showers/tstms, with
the best chances Sat afternoon/evening. An additional round of
showers/tstms may occur on Sunday as the upper low passes to the
NE and a vigorous mid level vort max/cold pool clip eastern
sections.

Generally fair wx expected on Mon, then as the cutoff low passes
out into the north Atlantic and the ridge to the west
flattens, could see chances for showers/tstms. Timing uncertain
and the GFS is likely too progressive, so think best chances
will be more in the time frame from late Tue into Tue night,
possibly Wed morning.

Temps Fri/Sat will be very warm, with lower 90s in urban NE NJ
and mid/upper 80s elsewhere. Heat index values should be very
close to fcst temps, with a worst case scenario of a one-day
episode occurrence of heat index values touching 95 only in NE
NJ if tstms/cloud cover do not keep temps down, and if high
temps and afternoon dewpoints are both a couple of degrees
higher than fcst. Temps Sunday/Monday should be more seasonable,
then may warm up to a few degrees above normal going into mid
week.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A weakening cold front moves into the region tonight. High
pressure returns overnight into Thursday.

VFR. Some showers and thunderstorms which moved into the far
northwestern terminals have been gradually dissipating over the
last hour. Most if not all the terminals should remain dry for
the remainder of the TAF period.

W to SW flow will become northerly less than 10 kt in the NYC
metro area tonight, with light and variable winds at the
outlying terminals. Afternoon seabreezes are expected once again
on Thursday.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.Thursday night Friday...Mainly VFR. Sea breezes likely on
Friday.
.Saturday and Sunday...Chance of showers and thunderstorms with
MVFR or lower conditions. Otherwise, VFR.
.Monday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Monitoring stratus/fog southeast of the waters east of Moriches
Inlet. This may continue expanding NW towards the waters near
Montauk Point overnight. The fog could become dense. Any low
clouds and fog should lift after sunrise Thursday morning.

Sub-SCA conditions are expected through Saturday. As low
pressure develops E of New England on Sunday and a cold front
passes SE, winds and seas may briefly approach SCA criteria
mainly on the ocean and near shore waters.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No concerns attm into early next week.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) remains off
the air.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Goodman/DW
NEAR TERM...DS/DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...Goodman
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...Goodman/DS/DW
HYDROLOGY...Goodman/DW
EQUIPMENT...