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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KOKX 171158
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
758 AM EDT Tue May 17 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A secondary cold front moves over the waters today. High pressure
will briefly return on Wednesday, then a weak disturbance moves
through Thursday as a warm front slowly approaches from the
southwest. The warm front will remain south on Friday and lift
through on Saturday. A cold front approaching on Sunday will move
through Sunday night, followed by strong high pressure building
eastward on Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Forecast is on track. The skies are completely clear over the
CWA for the first time in several days. Minor adjustments were
made to capture latest obs and trends.

The cold front that moved through the area overnight is now well
offshore and a secondary cold front is approaching from the west. We
remain under cyclonic flow aloft with an upper level low over
southeastern Canada. A piece of energy rotates around the upper low
and swings over the area today along with the associated
aforementioned secondary cold front.

The front moves through dry, with gusty conditions expected in
the afternoon. Forecast soundings show deep mixing up to ~750
mb. A northwest flow will gust up to 25 kt for most, with a few
gusts up to 30 kt possible. Morning sunshine will give way to
afternoon scattered to broken clouds ~7000 ft.

Highs today will be about 5 degrees above normal for mid-May. NYC
and northeast NJ will reach the mid to upper 70s and elsewhere will
reach the lower to mid 70s. The air will have a much drier feel to
it, with dewpoints in the mid 40s by the afternoon.

Skies clear out tonight, but winds probably don`t become light enough
to really take advantage of radiational cooling in the usual spots.
Low temperatures will be in the upper 40s to low 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Weak, brief high pressure builds in on Wednesday. Aloft, trough axis
moves offshore and there will be slight height rises over the area.

Once again a sunny morning gives way to clouds by late morning/early
afternoon, but this time it will be mid and high level clouds
ahead of a frontal system off to our west. A slightly cooler
and drier day than today is expected. High temperatures will be
in the upper 60s to low 70s and dewpoints will be as low as the
lower 30s in the afternoon.

The next chance for the area to see rain is Wednesday night through
Thursday. Upper level flow over the area is more zonal and shortwave
energy will pass just to the north. There is some disagreement in
the guidance in placement and intensity of the shortwave. The NAM
has the most aggressive solution and farthest south. In turn, there
are differences in surface low pressure development, placement
and strength. Regardless of the solution, was confident enough
to include likely PoPs for the western half of the area early
Thursday. A warm front will approach from the south and likely
remain just out of the area. Upper level trough axis passes
offshore late Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The warm front will remain south on Friday and lift through on
Saturday. A cold front approaching on Sunday will move through
Sunday night, followed by strong high pressure building eastward on
Monday. As the flow aloft amplifies, with a building ridge over the
ECONUS, the front should lift through early Sat, with one day of
heat likely before an upper trough over the northern tier of states
drives a cold front toward the area on Sunday and through Sunday
night with a round of showers/tstms.

NBM temps look too low for Fri and used a blend of the NBM 50th/75th
percentiles and GFS/ECMWF MOS, which are in better agreement, This
yields high temps reaching at least 90 from NYC north/west and along
the CT I-84 corridor, with mid 90s possible in the lower elevations
west of the Hudson. Along the coasts of SE CT and the the south
shore of Long Island upper 70s are likely, with 80s elsewhere. With
dewpoints in the lower 60s, heat index values should be close to
actual temps.

With the front yest to move through on Sunday, trended temps upward
there too, with upper 70s to mid 80s, and NBM probabilistic guidance
used above suggests warmer, with 90 in NE NJ.

High pressure returning on Mon should bring temps back closer to
average for late May.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
SKC to start into this morning. Another cold front will approach
this afternoon with BKN VFR cigs, and move through late day
into early eve.

W winds 10 kt or less should start to increase after 13Z-14Z,
reaching 15-20G25kt by afternoon. A few gusts over 30 kt may be
possible at times this afternoon.

Winds then shift NW and start to diminish late day into early eve
with the cold fropa.

 ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Cannot rule out a few gusts over 30 kt from about 17Z-22Z, but they
should be sporadic at most.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
.Wednesday...VFR.
.Wednesday night...Showers likely mainly after midnight. MVFR
cond likely, IFR possible late.
.Thursday...Chance of showers AM. MVFR cond likely, IFR
possible early.
.Friday and Saturday...VFR.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
A SCA is in effect for the eastern most ocean zone, NYC Harbor and
the western most Sound zone.

For the eastern most ocean zone through 00z this evening, seas will
remain at 5 ft through the day and wind gusts in the afternoon
will occasionally reach 25 kt. For the NYC Harbor and western
most Sound zone 16z - 22z this afternoon, winds will gust up to
25 kt this afternoon.

Winds and waves remain below SCA criteria Wednesday and
Thursday.

Mostly quiet longer term, with a chance of minimal SCA
conds on the ocean waters Sunday night with a cold frontal passage.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns through the beginning of next week.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tides are running higher than usual. Water levels
could approach minor benchmarks mainly on the Nassau south
shore bays tonight through Thu night. Additional statements and
advisories may be needed.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 6 PM EDT this evening
     for ANZ335-338.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BG/JT
NEAR TERM...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...BG
AVIATION...BG
MARINE...BG/JT
HYDROLOGY...BG/JT
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...