Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KOKX 291315 AFDOKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 915 AM EDT Fri May 29 2020 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will approach the area today moving through Saturday morning. High pressure then builds Sunday through early next week. Another frontal system approaches mid week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Areas of fog and low clouds once again this morning with patchy dense mainly confined along the coast will slowly burn off through the morning. A cold front over the eastern Great Lakes is forecast to approach the region today resulting in showers through the day, with highest chances north and west of NYC where SBCAPEs will be able to increase with more breaks of sunshine. Thunder will be possible in the afternoon and evening, from around the city to points north and west. Highs today will be in the low to middle 70s along the coast and into the low to middle 80s for New York City, New Jersey, and the Lower Hudson Valley. There is a high rip current risk today due to southerly flow of 15 to 20 mph and a southerly swell. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/... The highest chances of showers and thunderstorms are expected early this evening mainly around the city to inland areas north and west. Brief heavy downpours can be expected with the strongest storms but storms should move relatively quickly, limiting the threat of flash flooding in spice of a moist airmass. The threat of showers and thunderstorms diminishes after midnight tonight. Lows tonight will be in the 60s. The deepest moisture will move offshore by Saturday morning with the atmosphere drying out during the day. The actual cold front may hang around NYC/Long Island so a few scattered showers during the day cannot be ruled out. Temperatures will still be on the warm side, in the 70s, with a few spots across the interior touching 80. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Drier air moves in on Saturday night and into Sunday with increasing cold advection. BUFKIT soundings show strong mixing yielding high temperatures on Sunday in the upper 60s to lower 70s. A similar situation can be expected on Monday, with a few more clouds as an upper trough pushes east. Temperatures are expected to be a few degrees cooler. Lows on both nights will be chilly, in the 40s across the interior and lower 50s closer to the coast. High pressure will be in control through the first part of Tuesday as upper level ridging remains over the Central US. The next system approaches Tuesday afternoon when low pressure dives out of Canada, sending a warm front towards the region. This will bring the next chance of precipitation through Thursday. There is moderate rip current risk on Saturday due to a continued onshore flow and southerly swell. && .AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A cold front gradually approaches the terminals through tonight. LIFR and IFR conditions will gradually improve to MVFR this morning. There is a chance of VFR conditions by this afternoon, especially for KEWR, KTEB, and KSWF. IFR could hang on through the day at KISP, KBDR, and KGON. Showers are possible this afternoon, especially around KSWF. A higher chance of showers and possible thunder exists during the evening. Thunder chances look lower around the city terminals on east. S/SW flow around 10 kt increases to 10 to 15 kt through the morning. Gusts up to 20 kt are possible, but may be more occasional at the coastal locations. Winds shift more southwesterly Saturday morning. NY Metro Enhanced Aviation Weather Support... Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: http:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 KJFK TAF Comments: LIFR should improve to IFR through 14z and then MVFR by afternoon. IFR could hang on through the afternoon. Occasional gust to around 20 kt possible in the afternoon. The afternoon KJFK haze potential forecast is RED...which implies slant range visibility less than 4sm outside of cloud. KLGA TAF Comments: IFR could hang on a few hours longer than forecast this morning. Occasional gust to around 20 kt possible in the afternoon. The afternoon KLGA haze potential forecast is RED...which implies slant range visibility less than 4sm outside of cloud. KEWR TAF Comments: VFR possible this afternoon. Occasional gust to around 20 kt possible in the afternoon. The afternoon KEWR haze potential forecast is RED...which implies slant range visibility less than 4sm outside of cloud. KTEB TAF Comments: VFR possible this afternoon. Occasional gust to around 20 kt possible in the afternoon. KHPN TAF Comments: LIFR improves to IFR through 15z, then possibly MVFR into the afternoon. KISP TAF Comments: LIFR improves to IFR through 15z, then possibly MVFR into the afternoon. Occasional gusts to 20 kt possible in the afternoon. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... .Saturday...MVFR to IFR in the morning, then becoming VFR. A chance of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms daytime into Saturday evening. .Sunday-Tuesday...VFR. && .MARINE... Dense fog advisory has been issued for all waters through this morning and may need to be extended through the day. Seas continue to build 5-6 feet this morning and throughout the day with south winds 15-20kts. SCA criteria for waves and occasional wind gusts up to 25kts is in effect. SCA conds winds relax tonight 10-15 kts from the southwest but waves will remain elevated into tomorrow. Small Craft Advisory seas come to an end Saturday night and winds shift northwesterly 5-10kts. Winds and seas then remain below SCA levels through Wednesday. && .HYDROLOGY... Brief heavy downpours this afternoon and into tonight can be expected, but widespread hydrological impacts are not anticipated. No hydrologic impacts expected thereafter through Thursday. && .EQUIPMENT... NYC NOAA Weather Radio Station KWO35 (162.55 MHz) is undergoing its final stages of testing, and is operating at full power. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM EDT this evening for NYZ075- 080-081-178-179. NJ...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ330-335- 338-340-345-350-353-355. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ350-353- 355. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Fig NEAR TERM...Fig SHORT TERM...Fig LONG TERM... AVIATION...DJ/DS MARINE...DJ HYDROLOGY... EQUIPMENT...

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