Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 291422
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1022 AM EDT Fri Mar 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Expect a dry yet windy end to the work week as clouds give way
to breaks of sun and gusty winds. Gusty winds continue tonight but
then gradually weaken through the day Saturday under mainly
sunny skies and rather mild temperatures. We continue to keep a
close eye on a potential long duration precipitation event for
the middle of next week with both rain and snow accumulations
possible.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPDATE...As of 1015 AM EDT, back edge of thicker clouds close to
I-87 corridor and continuing to shift east. Sunshine should
initially increase from west to east over the next couple of
hours, however with cold pool aloft tracking overhead, expect
additional clouds to form this afternoon. So, intervals of sun
and clouds, along with increasingly gusty west/northwest winds,
which could reach up to 40 mph by mid to late afternoon,
especially across the Mohawk Valley/Capital Region and
Berkshires.

Still expect high temperatures to reach the upper 40s/lower 50s
within the Hudson River Valley, warmest across the mid Hudson
Valley, with upper 30s/lower 40s across higher terrain areas
above 1800 feet.

[PREVIOUS 704 AM EDT]...As of 7am...Just some minor adjustments
to temperatures and sky coverage this morning to match sfc
observations and GOES16 satellite trends. Back edge of the
cirrus canopy is on our door step inching towards the western
Adirondacks and western Adirondacks so we still expect early
clouds to give way to increased sunshine this morning from west
to east. Rest of the forecast is on track.

Previous discussion...Our coastal low continues to amplify off
the New England coast with just a cirrus canopy blanketing
eastern NY and western New England this morning. Northwest winds
also remain elevated with sustained winds 5 - 10kts and gusts
up to 20kts as the sfc pressure gradient overhead tightens.
GOES16 IR shows the back edge of these clouds pushing though
central NY and clearing should finally reach the western Mohawk
Valley and the western Adirondacks by 12 UTC Fri. The high
clouds and winds have reduced the rate of cooling overnight so
morning lows have only dropped into the 30s for much of the
area.

As our cirrus canopy exits from west to east this morning,
expect the sun to finally make an appearance. However, as the parent
trough slides overhead and into New England later this morning
and takes on a negative tilt, our coastal low will undergo
rapid cyclogensis, becoming a sub-980hPa low as it reaches the
Gulf of Maine by 00 UTC. This will act to tighten the sfc
pressure gradient overhead and will aid in strengthening cold
and dry air advection, leading to PWATs dropping towards 0.25".
The drying environment and pressure rises in the wake of the
trough will support deep and efficient boundary layer mixing
which, when combined with 925 to 850hPa winds increasing to 35
to 45kts, will likely result in a period of gusty winds this
afternoon into tonight. Expect northwest winds to become
sustained 10 - 20kts with gusts up to 30 - 35kts. The strongest
winds are favored down the Mohawk Valley into the Capital
District and Berkshire County where channeled flow will likely
enhance boundary layer mixing. BUFKIT forecast profiles and
probabilistic guidance from DESI were used to enhanced wind
gusts based on this synoptic set-up. The higher elevations of
the northern/eastern Catskills (including the Helderbergs),
Taconics and Berkshires may experience brief gusts up to 40kts
which is low-end wind advisory criteria (46mph+). However, given
limited spatial coverage, we will hold off on issuing any wind
advisories. The strongest winds and the best potential to reach
low-end wind advisory criteria will likely be between 18 UTC -
06 UTC (2pm today to 2am tonight). Note that trees that are in a
weaken state from the recent freezing rain and heavy snow event
(especially in the Capital District) from last weekend may be
more vulnerable to damage despite winds being sub-advisory.

Besides the gusty winds, morning sun today will mix with clouds
as cold air advection and gusty northwest winds advect moisture
off Lake Ontario downstream. Valley areas should see more
breaks of sun compared to the hill towns/higher terrain.
Otherwise, deep mixing should support temperatures reaching into
the upper 40s to low 50s today with cooler upper 30s in the
higher terrain of the southern Greens and southern Adirondacks.

Continued cold air advection tonight and gusty northwest winds
will likely support a few lake effect snow showers to develop
and advect into the northern Catskills, western Mohawk Valley
and western Adirondacks but any accumulation appear minimal
given limited moisture. Winds and areas of stratocumulus clouds
streaming off Lake Ontario tonight will prevent temperatures
from becoming too chilly with lows only dropping into the mid to
upper 20s in the hill town/terrain and low 30s in the valley.
Northwest remain gusty after 06 UTC but should gradually weaken
as we approach sunrise.

Early stratus clouds will give way to sunny skies by mid to
late morning Saturday with northwest winds remaining gusty
reaching up to 20-25kts in the morning. Winds trend downwards
through the afternoon as the sfc pressure gradient relaxes and
shortwave ridging builds eastward. This will yield pleasant
conditions for our Saturday. Temperatures could overperform a
bit given deep mixing and winds aloft veering out of west. We
leaned on the warmer end of guidance and show temperatures
rising well into the mid to upper 50s for valley areas with mid
to upper 40s in the higher terrain. Spots of the mid-Hudson
Valley could hit 60.

PWATs remain quite low on Saturday, falling under 0.25", and
increased sunshine will support deep boundary layer once again
during peak heating hours. Dew points should drop into the low
20s. RH values drop under 30% in the mid- Hudson Valley and NW
CT but winds here should be weaker compared to other areas as
the Catskills help block the northwest flow which should limit
any fire weather issues. Will continue to monitor trends and
check in with state partners who can assess fuel conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Clouds increase Saturday night in response to weak warm air
advection ensuing in the mid and upper levels and a weak
shortwave tracking into the Northeast. While some guidance
shows light showers developing, we limited POPs to just slight
chance or at worst low end chance given weak forcing and
moisture that appears limited to the mid and upper levels. Given
the very air mass in place from Saturday, any precip that
develops should come out of mid-level clouds and could
evaporate before reaching the ground. Otherwise, overnight lows
drop into the mid-upper 30s with upper 20s in the southern
Adirondacks and southern Greens which should see less in the way
of clouds/precip.

Morning clouds Sunday should give way to breaks of sun as the
mid-level shortwave exits to our east and subsidence builds in
its wake. Temperatures should turn seasonable reaching into the
low to mid 50s for the valley and low to mid 40s in the higher
terrain. Sfc high pressure builds eastward out of the Great
Lakes for Sunday night into Monday with strong ridging
dominating the Southeast U.S. While we remain on the northern
periphery of this broad ridging with a few weak shortwaves
tracking within the fast westerly flow aloft resulting in
increased cloud coverage, guidance has trended drier for the
Northeast with most shower activity remaining further south in
the mid- Atlantic closer to where a warm front develops and
stalls. Temperatures remain seasonably mild for the start of the
new work week with highs in the low 50s in the valley and upper
40s in the higher terrain for Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Deterministic model guidance and ensembles all suggest that a large
storm system will be impacting the region through the mid-week, with
the potential for high QPF and a trend towards some wintry precip,
especially for the higher terrain.

Low pressure will be moving across the Ohio Valley and Midwest
towards the Great Lakes for Monday night into Tuesday.  Well ahead
of this storm system, warm advection will be allowing for an area of
steady precip to move towards the area.  While a few high terrain
areas could see some wet snow to start, most of the precip will be
plain rain, as temps aloft and at the surface look just warm enough,
especially with the expected southerly flow ahead of the approaching
storm system.  After lows in the 30s on Monday night, temps should
rise into the mid 40s for most places on Tuesday.  Temps will fall
into the 30s on Tuesday night, although most spots should be staying
above freezing.  While the steadiest precip may shift off to the
north and east, plenty of lingering light precip is expected to
still be in place across the area on Tuesday night.

The main surface low will be slowing down and drifting across the
Great Lakes and Ontario on Wednesday, as a large upper level low
heads towards the area and cuts off for Wednesday.  Meanwhile, a
secondary area of low pressure will be developing along or near the
New England coast.  With the developing coastal low and cooling
temps aloft thanks to the upper level low, surface temps will be
cooling down, especially for the high terrain.  Precip will start to
become organized once again thanks to the developing secondary low,
especially for late Wed into Wednesday night.  With the cooling
temps, a changeover to snow is expected for high terrain areas, and
potentially even some valley areas as well. Lows will be down in the
upper 20s to mid 30s on Wed night.

With the upper level low overhead, the secondary low won`t be
exiting too quickly, which should linger steady light precip even
into Thursday as well. Additional rain and snow is expected on
Thursday, with many areas outside the immediate valleys seeing some
wintry precip. Precip should start to diminish by late Thursday or
Thursday night as this system finally starts moving away from the
area. Temps will mainly be in the 30s on Thursday, with some valley
areas reaching the 40s by late in the day as precip starts to
diminish.

Ensemble probability guidance suggest many areas, especially
northern and high terrain areas, have a good chance at some
accumulation.  Both the 00z GEFS and Euro ensembles suggest at least
a 50% chance for 3 inches or more of accumulation over a good chunk
of the area.  This will become further refined over the next few
days as the overall total QPF and temps profiles become into better
focus.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A large storm system is departing off the coast of New England
today. Through the day, flying conditions will continue to be VFR.
Widespread overcast mid level clouds will gradually diminish this
morning from south to north, with skies becoming mostly clear by the
late morning or early afternoon hours, with just some lingering
cirrus clouds.  During the afternoon hours, some sct to bkn
stratocu/cu will develop around 4-7 kft as well, but it will stay
VFR with no precip.  With a strong pressure gradient in place and
good mixing expected, west to northwest winds will increase to 15 to
20 kts for all sites, with some gusts up to 30 kts possible for
KALB/KPSF.

Winds will diminish slightly this evening, but remain rather breezy
into overnight hours, with sustained winds still 10 to 15 kts and
some higher gusts at times.  Skies will be clearing out, with just a
few lingering cu/stratocu around 4-6 kft remaining around the area
and continued VFR conditions.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...SHSN.
Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely RA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Definite RA.
Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely RA.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Likely RA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Speciale
NEAR TERM...KL/Speciale
SHORT TERM...Speciale
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Frugis


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