242
FNUS53 KAPX 101842
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
242 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024

...Precipitation chances return tonight into Saturday...

.DISCUSSION...Chances of showers return tonight as a system passes
over the Great Lakes region. Variable winds will eventually rotate
to the north-northeast by Saturday afternoon gusting into the mid
teens. While high temperatures will reach the mid to upper 50s for
most areas, RH`s will remain well above critical thresholds along
with mostly cloudy conditions until the evening hours of Saturday.


MIZ016-017-021>023-099-110815-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
242 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent) until 2400, then
                    mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers until 2400, then rain showers
                    likely.
Min Temperature.....39-44.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
   24 HR Trend......11 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (20).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.01- 0.12 in.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers.
Max Temperature.....56-61...except 48-53 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........43-48 percent.
   24 HR Trend......14 percent wetter...except 3 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......North winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (365).
Mixing Height.......1900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 12 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.09 in .

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers until 2400.
Min Temperature.....36-41.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........92-97 percent...except 83-88 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged...except 5 percent drier along the
                    coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    west after midnight.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (20).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 6 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in .

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers.
Max Temperature.....66-71...except 57-62 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........38-43 percent.
   24 HR Trend......8 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (684).
Mixing Height.......2900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 9 mph increasing to around 21
                    mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.03 in .


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-110815-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
242 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers until 2400. Chance of rain showers
                    after 2400.
Min Temperature.....39-44.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
   24 HR Trend......12 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (32).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.05 in .

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers.
Max Temperature.....56-61...except around 50 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........47-52 percent.
   24 HR Trend......10 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    north in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Good (358).
Mixing Height.......2000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....South around 9 mph shifting to the north around
                    15 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.02- 0.15 in.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers until 2400.
Min Temperature.....37-42.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........93-98 percent...except 83-88 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (38).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....North 12 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in .

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent).
Max Temperature.....66-71...except 52-57 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......9 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........38-43 percent.
   24 HR Trend......11 percent drier...except 6 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (625).
Mixing Height.......3300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 9 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in .


$$

MIZ020-025>027-110815-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
242 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers until 2400, then rain showers.
Min Temperature.....Around 41.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
   24 HR Trend......9 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 16 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (52).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........Around 0.09 in .

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers.
Max Temperature.....55-60...except around 50 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........46-51 percent.
   24 HR Trend......2 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (673).
Mixing Height.......2800 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 18 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.09 in .

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers until 2400.
Min Temperature.....35-40...except 43-48 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........91-96 percent...except 80-85 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......8 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    southwest after midnight.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (15).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 6 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in .

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (45-55 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers.
Max Temperature.....68-73...except 50-55 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......13 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........37-42 percent.
   24 HR Trend......11 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph increasing to around
                    15 mph in the afternoon. Gusts up to 35 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (633).
Mixing Height.......2500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 9 mph increasing to around 21
                    mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.03 in .


$$

MIZ031>033-110815-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
242 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers until 2400, then rain showers.
Min Temperature.....38-43.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 16 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (68).
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.07- 0.23 in.

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Rain showers
                    until 1200, then chance of rain showers.
Max Temperature.....56-61...except 49-54 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........46-51 percent.
   24 HR Trend......8 percent wetter...except 15 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 20 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (953).
Mixing Height.......3700 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 18 to 24 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.09 in .

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers until 2400.
Min Temperature.....35-40.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........91-96 percent.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    west after midnight.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (17).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 6 to 15 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in .

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers after 1200.
Max Temperature.....67-72...except 60-65 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......12 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........37-42 percent.
   24 HR Trend......11 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (698).
Mixing Height.......2900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 9 mph increasing to around 21
                    mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in .


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-110815-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
242 PM EDT Fri May 10 2024

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent) until 2400, then
                    mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers until 2400Rain showers likely
                    after 2400.
Min Temperature.....40-45.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
   24 HR Trend......10 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (37).
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 9 to 12 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.08 in .

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers. Slight chance of thunderstorms after
                    1200.
Max Temperature.....55-60.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler.
Min Humidity........46-51 percent.
   24 HR Trend......8 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    northwest in the afternoon.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (647).
Mixing Height.......2500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 12 mph increasing to northwest
                    around 24 mph in the afternoon.
Pcpn Amount......... 0.06- 0.12 in.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers until 2400.
Min Temperature.....35-40.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler.
Max Humidity........92-97 percent.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Poor (29).
Mixing Height.......300 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 9 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.02 in .

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent).
Max Temperature.....66-71.
   24 HR Trend......12 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........37-42 percent.
   24 HR Trend......11 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional
                    gusts up to 24 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Vent Rate...........Excellent (674).
Mixing Height.......3200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 9 to 18 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in .


$$

.EXTENDED...

.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S.
HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S.
NORTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 40. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID
40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. EAST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.

$$

SJC