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000
FXUS61 KBUF 152111
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
511 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure passing across the region will bring dry weather
tonight and Tuesday. Some unsettled weather will return by midweek
as a weakening area of broad low pressure moves into the Great Lakes.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An area of showers north of Georgian Bay and the Ottawa Valley will
pass across northern New York early this evening as another
shortwave will dig into the region. This activity should be over by
midnight with improving skies, while the remainder of the area will
remain dry under mainly clear skies. Lightening winds and clearing
skies will provide good radiational cooling with overnight lows
tonight in the 30s with a few upper 20s possible across the North
Country.

Surface ridge settles over the area Tuesday, while the axis of an
amplifying upper level ridge slides into the central Great Lakes.
This will maintain dry weather and plenty of sunshine. Modest warm
advection along with sunshine will help modify temperature with
highs getting into the 60s for many areas south of Lake Ontario,
with 50s along the immediate Lake Ontario shoreline into the eastern
Lake Ontario region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure over Hudson Bay will extend south across the
eastern Great Lakes Tuesday night. As this area of high pressure
slides east, a weakening low pressure system is expected to slowly
move across the Midwest and into the Great Lakes region Wednesday
through Thursday. Thereafter, it will be engulfed by a secondary low
pressure system over Manitoba, leading to a shallow but stubborn
upper level troughing pattern across much of the Northeast.

This system will ease a pair of warm frontal boundaries through
the forecast area from the southwest Tuesday night into Wednesday,
followed by a increasingly diffuse cold front late Wednesday
night into Thursday morning. While Tuesday night will be dry
with increasing clouds as surface high pressure remains in
control over the region, rain chances will ramp up from the west
by Wednesday morning as a plume of Gulf moisture gets pulled
northward into the region. The main warm frontal boundary is
expected to slow, if not completely stalling out over the
region as it runs up against the strong ridge over New England.
This will likely cause sharply lower rain chances Wednesday for
the North Country compared to areas south of Lake Ontario and
western New York.

System cold front works in from the west Wednesday night and
Thursday bringing another round of showers. Better instability
parameters ahead and along this front could bring a few
embedded thunderstorms to Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday
night. Far western New York is then expected to begin drying
out by Thursday evening.

Temperatures through the midweek timeframe will heavily depend on
the timing of the frontal passages and precipitation, although
temperatures should average on the mild side both Wednesday and
Thursday with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s both days.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A large low pressure system will be in the process of stacking
in the vicinity of James Bay on Friday. This increasingly
positively tilted trough associated with the system will swing
a pair of cold fronts through the region between Friday and
Saturday. This will lead to renewed chances for rain showers by
the end of the week as well as a day-to- day cooling trend from
Friday into the weekend. Showers should taper off with less
coverage from late Saturday morning through Sunday. Monday
should also be mainly dry, but a few sprinkles or showers can`t
be completely ruled out as a quick moving shortwave trough
crosses the area. But a sfc high over the region and the lack of
synoptic moisture should limit the potential for any precip.

Temperatures will start out above normal for Friday, but will cool
to around 5 degrees below normal for the weekend. Temperatures start
to warm back to normal on Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will continue to build into the region with clearing
skies this evening. High confidence for VFR through the period
everywhere except for KART, where an isolated shower this evening
could bring a brief period of MVFR conditions. West-northwest winds
gusting to 20-25 knots will diminish around sunset this evening with
light winds overnight into Tuesday morning. While skies will be
mainly clear, not anticipating any valley fog with incoming drier
airmass.

Outlook...

Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers late Tuesday night
over western NY.
Wednesday and Thursday...MVFR/VFR with showers likely.
Friday and Saturday...MVFR/VFR with a chance of showers.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will build over the both lakes tonight and Tuesday.
Winds will be light and variable on Lake Erie with an onshore flow
developing by Tuesday afternoon. Elevated west winds on Lake Ontario
into early tonight will diminish by Tuesday morning with an onshore
flow developing by Tuesday afternoon.

Elevated easterly winds and small craft conditions should develop on
Lake Ontario, especially on the western end ahead of an approaching
warm front by Wednesday. Winds turn more southerly on both lakes
behind the warm front by Thursday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...PP/TMA
LONG TERM...PP/SW
AVIATION...TMA
MARINE...TMA