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000
FXUS62 KCAE 211648
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1248 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Rainfall moves east of the area this evening, with some drier
air moving into the region on Monday. High pressure will
provide fair weather Tuesday. A dry front will move through
Wednesday, with cool high pressure building into the Mid
Atlantic behind it. The surface high axis will generally remain
over, or near, our vicinity Friday into next weekend, providing
some gradual moderation in temps.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The surface front is currently situated just off to the south
and east of the forecast area. Behind this front, a cooler
surface wedge airmass has taken hold over a majority of the
forecast area, with only the southeastern areas not completely
taken over by the cool air yet. Good isentropic lift is
occurring over the western Midlands and CSRA, with more
widespread light to moderate rainfall falling there. Main upper
shortwave energy is moving out of eastern Alabama, and will
continue to rapidly track eastward through this afternoon.
Rainfall should continue across the upstate and western
counties, while additional heavier and more convection rainfall
will moving across the eastern cwa and the coastal plain. Rain
is expected to finally be pushing off to the east of the area
around 00z this evening as deeper moisture moves on out with the
exiting shortwave.

As for temperatures, little change in afternoon readings in
areas firmly in the wedge. The southeastern counties closer to
the front may see a slight cooling through the afternoon.
Overnight, plenty of cloud cover and lingering low-level
moisture should only see temperatures drop into the mid to upper
40s in most areas. Winds should keep up just enough to inhibit
widespread fog, but can not rule out at least some patchy fog
formation overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A positively tilted upper level trough moves across the region
Monday morning. The far eastern Midlands might experience an
isolated light shower. Temperatures will be much below normal with a
cool air wedge in place.

Zonal flow aloft sets up during the middle of the week which allows
the airmass in place to modify and temperatures to warm to near
normal by Wednesday. An upper level trough passes north of the
region on Wednesday with a cold front approaching the Northern
Midlands by the end of the day.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Canadian surface high pressure is expected to move across the Great
Lakes and Northeast U.S. Thursday through Friday. Model ensembles
depict this surface high pushing a frontal boundary to near or south
of The Midlands and CSRA. There may be a slight chance of showers
both days depending on the frontal boundary location. Slightly below
normal temperatures are likely during this time period.

Above normal H5 heights are likely next weekend and the above
mentioned frontal boundary should lift north of the region with a
slight chance of showers. Temperatures should be above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A mixture of vfr and mvfr ceilings will continue across all taf
locations through this evening. More widespread improvement to
vfr expected late tonight.

Scattered showers and even an isolated thunderstorm will remain
possible near all taf locations this afternoon and early
evening. Main area of rainfall will be moving east of aviation
points after 00z tonight, with drier air moving in late tonight
and into Monday. Plenty of cloud cover shown on satellite and
surface obs, with sites varying between low end vfr and upper
end mvfr ceilings. Guidance does seem to indicate most sites
dropping down to predominant mvfr later this afternoon and
evening as the upper shortwave moves through. Will trend
ceilings down to mvfr at or slightly after 18z at all sites,
then show improvement back to vfr by 06z. Vfr then expected on
Monday with clouds eventually becoming more scattered after 12z
Monday. Winds remaining out of the north to northeast between
5-10 knots through the afternoon, then dropping to near 5 knots
by sunset. Speeds increase again Monday morning.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No significant impacts to aviation
expected through Friday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$