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000
FXUS62 KCHS 152203
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
603 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will persist through the end of the week. A cold
front is then forecast to impact our area this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
No major changes were made for the early evening update. KCLX
shows the sea breeze making steady movement inland. Dry
conditions will persist.

Into this evening: The sea breeze has finally become evident on
radar, and will be near and just west of the US-17 corridor
early on, making it closer to the I-95 corridor of South
Carolina before dissipating. Gusty south and southwest winds
will reach 15-25 mph at times in wake of the sea breeze, before
dropping off with sunset. Temperatures that reached well into
the 80s and even 90F degrees in spots will remain above 80F
degrees inland from the coast until sunset.

Tonight: Broad ridging aloft will continue to spread into the
area, as the Bermuda-Azores High prevails over and nearby at the
surface. Other than few-scattered cirrus moving in, skies will
be mainly clear. Winds will decouple in many places during the
mid-late evening, and overnight, which will lead to good
radiational cooling. But with dew points in the 50s, that`s
about as cool as we can get. Our current forecast shows 56-60F
degrees well inland, lower and middle 60s closer to the ocean.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Ridging will prevail aloft on Tuesday, slowly transitioning to zonal
flow on Wednesday as a mid-level trough traverses the Mid-Atlantic
states. Broad ridging will then return on Thursday. At the surface
high pressure will dominate, centered over the adjacent Atlantic
waters. Wednesday night into Thursday a weak cold front will
approach the local forecast area. The high pressure in place will
likely prevent the weak front from progressing too far into the
local area. There is a very low chance some shower activity could
occur Wednesday night, especially inland. However, it is highly
unlikely that these showers would reach the surface to produce
measurable rainfall. A dry forecast has been maintained.

Temperatures through the period will remain above normal through the
short term period, with highs in the mid to upper 80s inland and mid
to upper 70s directly at the beaches. Overnight lows will also be
above normal, only dipping into the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Broad ridging aloft and high pressure at the surface will prevail
into the weekend. This weekend a short wave trough is forecast to
ripple across the southeastern states, with a cold front at the
surface pushing through the local forecast area. PoPs remain in the
20-40% range through the weekend, associated with the frontal
passage. Temperatures will remain above normal through Saturday.
Sunday`s temperature forecast will be dependent on how far southward
the cold front is able to work. The current forecast has above
normal temperatures across southeastern GA and near normal
temperatures across southeastern SC.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
16/00z TAF Discussion:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR through 17/00z Wednesday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Prevailing VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Conditions remain rather gusty in the Charleston Harbor early
this evening. Gusts have largely remained below 25 kt.

This evening and tonight: The typical Bermuda-Azores High will
remain its hold on the local waters, and due to how warm it has
gotten, a decent S-SW sea breeze will persist into this evening
near the coast and in Charleston Harbor. Winds will be as high
as 15 or 20 kt, and there will even be some gusts at times around
25 kt in Charleston Harbor. But not enough frequency for a Small
Craft Advisory. As the sea breeze influences wane prior to
midnight, winds will slowly come down, and will average 10-15 kt
as they veer more SW or WSW with subtle land breeze influences.
Seas will generally average 2-3 feet throughout.

Tuesday through Saturday: Conditions through the period are expected
to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria. High pressure will
dominate over the local marine waters into the weekend, with SW
winds generally 10 to 15 knots. Seas are forecast to average 2 to 3
ft through the period. A sea breeze is expected to form each
afternoon along the coast, with the Charleston Harbor gusting to
around 20 knots.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$