Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 250917
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
517 AM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A sunny and dry start to the week with near normal temperatures,
followed by clouds and a few periods of showers for Tuesday and
Wednesday. Fair weather with brisk winds and a return to
slightly below normal temperatures will close out the week on
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1038 mb surface high over the Lower St. Lawrence Valley early
this morning has its ridge extending SSW across Eastern NY and
the Susq Valley. Relatively light NE to Easterly wind to start
the day will gradually veer around to the East and Southeast as
the ridge axis drifts toward the NJ Coast. Wind gusts will vary
from the 10 to 12 kt range in the far east...to the 20-25 kt
range over the Western Mtns of the state where a notably tighter
llvl pressure gradient will be found.

Nearly full sunshine will occur across the region today, with
just a few wisps of thin cirrus at times.

Milder afternoon temps will greet us for start of the last week
of March. Mixing of model 900mb temps between 1C and 4C will
lead to fairly uniform highs in the 50-55F range.

Dry air above a weakening subsidence inversion in the forecast
soundings supports undercutting NBM dewpoints today, closer to
the MAV and NBM10pct values.

The wind and low minRH combo could have fire weather
implications depending on how much dead fuel moisture can dry
out/cure following the rainfall earlier in the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
Southeast winds continue to trend higher over the western and
northern Alleghenies tonight, as low level jet slides over
Western PA. Gusts up to 40 mph appear possible on the ridgetops
of the Alleghenies (above the mainly decoupled BLYR in the
valleys) based on model soundings.

Overnight lows tonight will vary from near to slightly below
normal over the SE half of the CWA, to around 10 deg F above
normal in the vcnty of KBFD, and we`ll see series of higher
lows through midweek adding +5-10F night/night.

A dual layer of relatively shallow stratocu advecting NWWD
across the region (topped by increasing mid and high clouds)
preceding a slow moving/weakening sfc cold/occluded front.
Showers with light QPF amounts will spread into Western part of
the CWA later Tuesday afternoon and evening.

High temps Tuesday will range through the 50s (coolest and near
50F over the higher terrain).

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A weakening cold/occluded front is progged to push into the
region late Wednesday. In advance of the front, falling heights
and surging pwats along the southerly low level jet will likely
spread showers into the western part of the forecast area by
Tuesday afternoon, with the focus of showers shifting into the
eastern half of the state late Tuesday night into Wednesday. The
parent shortwave and best large scale forcing is progged to
pass well north of PA, so any rainfall Tuesday PM into Wednesday
should be quite light. Ensemble plumes indicate mostly likely
totals by late Wed of 0.10 inches or less.

A few lingering showers are likely to accompany the
cold/occluded front, as it slowly pushes east across the region
Wed night. All medium range guidance develops an area of low
pressure on the stalling front over the southeast coast, then
tracks it northeast late this week. The bulk of ensemble members
keep this system too far east to affect most of Central PA.
However, enough members track it close enough to support a
chance of rain over the southeast part of the forecast area
Thursday. Plumes indicate if it does rain, substantial amounts
of near 1 inch are possible.

There is a broad agreement among guidance that fair and
seasonable conditions return for Friday, as large scale
subsidence overspreads the state behind the exiting upper
trough. A weak wave of low pressure tracking across PA could
produce a bit of light rain or showers Sat or Sat night.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Widespread VFR conds will continue into today, as high pressure
over southeastern Canada noses southward into the northeastern
United States. Beneath mostly sunny skies, a southeasterly
breeze will develop areawide and become a bit gusty (15-20 kts
by aftn).

The increasingly moist southeasterly flow will continue into
tonight, and models suggest that low clouds may work their way
westward into the Susq Valley during the pre-dawn hours on
Tuesday. We could also see LLWS develop over the western
highlands, as a 40-50 kt southeasterly low-level jet moves
overhead.

Outlook...

Mon night-Tue...Increasing clouds.

Tue night-Wed...Rain/low cigs possible.

Thu...Lingering rain and reduced cigs possible S/E.

Thu night-Fri...Improving conds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Depending on how much dead fuel moisture can dry out, minRH and
moderately gusty winds from the Southeast indicate the
potential for an elevated risk of wildfire spread mainly over
western portions of central PA including the Allegheny Plateau
and ANF regions/districts.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Lambert/Fitzgerald/Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Lambert/Fitzgerald/Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Fitzgerald
AVIATION...Evanego
FIRE WEATHER...Steinbugl


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