551
FXUS61 KCTP 131922
AFDCTP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
322 PM EDT Sun Jul 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
* Continued seasonably warm and humid
* Afternoon and evening focused showers and thunderstorms are
  expected through Monday, with the most widespread activity,
  featuring locally heavy downpours this afternoon and evening.
* At this point, Tuesday looks like the driest day of the next
  seven

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Small/shorter SHRA/TSRA have fired up over nrn and far wrn PA,
moving generally and slowly east and a little north. Additional
development is expected. Local cu field is filling back in and
they are taller than earlier today. Placement of TSRA is a low-
certainty, and we`ve made changes to the PoPs from NBM through
06Z. 2" PWAT over eastern counties and only 1.5" in the western
counties isn`t a huge difference since we`re already so moist.
This could make the FF threat lower in the west, though. The
stability in the south-central counties is being eroded, and
TSRA could return to the SE in a few hours. Guidance from
machines and WPC ERO pegs our central mountains with the highest
QPF and risk of FF. However, very recent CAM guidance is not
very helpful. HREF Does not account for the current TSRA over
PBZ`s area, and is too generous with QPF (thus far) over our
CWA.

Still some threat of SVR gusts, but only MRGL risk over
most of the area. SPC did up the risk in the NErn counties. So,
we`ll have lots to watch-out for this aftn and evening. Temps
will be a function of when you get sun or have gotten rain.

Stabilization should reduce the coverage and strength of the
TSRA around in the evening. But, several could last through
midnight or even later. Fog is possible, esp where the rain
falls this aftn/evening. But, two areas of lower clouds are
expected, one over the NW with a lowering inversion there, and
marine air trying to get back in like it has both of the last
two nights. But, the SErly flow may not be as strong as the past
two nights. We will still paint some higher cloud cover in the
east, but not bring it too far into the CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
Short MBE vectors and relatively light flow (still only 20KT
deep shear over MDT) continue on Monday, as the last many days,
and will keep the FF risk higher than normal. Current ERO is a
SLGT for our SErn third, but tapers to nil for the NW few
counties. The moisture and approach of a stronger longer-wave
trough will create widespread SHRA/TSRA in the aftn/evening on
Monday, mainly over the eastern half of the area. Will ponder
another FF Watch for Mon aftn/evening. PHI has posted a FF
Watch for their area already for Monday and should make our
decision bit easier. We`ll still hold off until mid shift or
Mon AM to make that (Mon) watch decision in order to be able to
see where the heaviest stuff falls this evening and tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The cold front pulls slowly moves through the area Monday
evening into Tuesday morning, allowing for a brief period of no
precipitation across central Pennsylvania through the morning
hours on Tuesday. This will be short-lived, however, as the
front will move back in to the southern tier Tuesday afternoon
and trigger another round of showers and thunderstorms.

Large-scale pattern remains fairly consistent, allowing for
continued chances for diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms
across central Pennsylvania throughout much of the long-term
forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Deep convection roiling over the nrn mtns and starting to fill
in near AOO. Also a big patch of TSRA coming in from PBZ`s
airspace. LIFR did occur earlier today at CXY and MDT as storms
went thru there, so there is still the poss for that to occur
due to a TSRA elsewhere through midnight.

Coverage of the storms even the next several hours is still
tough to hone in on other than extrapolation from their current
positions and movements, and wide disagreement among the near-
term guidance. So, PROB30s for TSRA will carry the day with
confidence low in timing and location.

Stabilization should start over the west around sunset and work
eastward as we near 04-05Z, but isolated SHRA/TSRA may continue
going, mainly in the N??, overnight. Coverage should be much
more sparse, so will leave out mentions of TSRA early tonight
at this point. Overnight, patchy fog is likely where it rained
earlier, and there is a 50% chc that the marine stratus gets
back into the far eastern terminals (LNS, MDT as well as MUI)
through the night. Have brought most everyone into MVFR
overnight and IFR for BFD, UNV, IPT, MDT and LNS.

Still a 90% chc for a break in the convection between 08Z and
14Z. But the approach of a deeper upper trough from the west is
a good signal that storms will form again Monday. Will just
mention after 16Z. Most of the storms will be SE of IPT-UNV-
AOO depending on timing of the trough axis, but a few are
possible to the NW of that area.

Outlook...

Tue-Wed...Mainly VFR. Isold-Sct PM TSRA poss, mainly south.

Thurs-Fri...Sct/Nmrs SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 1 AM EDT Monday for PAZ006-011-012-017>019-
024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Dangelo
NEAR TERM...Dangelo
SHORT TERM...Dangelo
LONG TERM...Bauco/NPB
AVIATION...Dangelo
HYDROLOGY...Dangelo