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000
ACUS48 KWNS 130859
SWOD48
SPC AC 130858

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...D4/Tuesday...
A deep surface cyclone over the central Great Plains at 12Z Tuesday
should gradually progress east-northeast to the Upper MS Valley by
early Wednesday. An intense mid-level jetlet (in excess of 80 kts)
from northwest TX into southern KS should move east across the Ozark
Plateau before weakening Tuesday night as it reaches the Lower OH
Valley. The initially north/south-oriented cold front to the south
of the surface low will move farther east faster near the cyclone,
but slow and stall farther south over the Ark-La-Tex.

Synoptically, two favored regions for severe storms Tuesday
afternoon/evening will be within the left-exit region of the intense
mid-level jet in parts of IA/MO/IL, and over the Ark-La-Tex into the
Mid-South where frontal convection will intersect with the richer
low-level moisture plume emanating north from the western Gulf. A
broad severe weather highlight remains warranted, with areas of
higher probabilities likely being needed in later outlooks as
mesoscale details become clearer given that the instability/buoyancy
plume should be confined and modulated by late D3-early D4
convection.

...D5/Wednesday...
Latest guidance suggest some severe threat should persist into early
D5 given the strength of low to mid-level flow before the deep
surface cyclone occludes and dampens over the Great Lakes. The
northeast lobe of the warm-moist sector emanating from the western
Gulf should be further confined relative to D4. Conditionally, the
central OH Valley vicinity appears to have the best opportunity to
destabilize in the wake of late D4-early D5 convection and overlap
with the stronger flow fields. This area will be monitored for a
possible severe weather highlight in the next outlook cycle.

...D6/Thursday...
With a broad upper trough becoming established over the Upper
Midwest, a building surface anticyclone over the Great Plains should
support a reinforcing cold front impinging on the rich western Gulf
moisture plume over parts of TX into AR/LA. Some severe potential
may evolve given increasingly larger CAPE compared to prior days,
but overall shear profiles appear modest.

..Grams.. 04/13/2024