Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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660 FXUS64 KJAN 121859 AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 159 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 ...New DISCUSSION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 158 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Tonight and tomorrow... Hope you enjoyed the break this weekend as active weather has returned for the short term period. A series of disturbances amid an active southern stream will support multiple complexes that push across the area starting tonight. The first few will not pose a huge threat as there is not much instability and the warm front is offshore the Gulf. These will push through tonight and early tomorrow morning and there is a slight risk highlighted for south of the HWY 84 corridor in the HWO for damaging winds to 60 mph and hail to quarter size. A tornado cannot be ruled out but this chance is very low considering the lack of instability and unfavorable low level shear profile. The main concern will be tomorrow afternoon and evening as a more potent MCS dives across the area. Storms will initiate in central Texas and gradually grow upscale, reaching maturity once it reaches our area. Strong instability and deep shear will be supportive of its maintenance, while a surface warm front, roughly extending parallel to the HWY 49 corridor, will serve as a focus for a potentially stronger wind swath. There is some low end tornado threat as well given somewhat favorable wind profiles, however I want to emphasize that the straight line winds in these cases may do greater, more widespread damage. There is a slight risk highlighted for this potential as well, however an upgrade to enhanced could be possible. In addition to severe threat, PWAT in excess of 1.8 inches and very deep warm cloud layer will support heavy rain rates capable of producing flash flooding. Multiple rounds of rain will enhance this risk further and will lead to a lot of rainfall in a short period of time, as much as 4 to 5 inches in spots, with a focus south of I-20. This has prompted the issuance of a flash flood watch and an elevated risk in the HWO for this area. /SAS/ Monday Night through Saturday... The potential for severe storms and heavy rain will be ongoing as we begin the forecast period Monday night. A complex of storms is advertised to be in the process of racing east through the CWA during this time. Damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph, quarter to golf ball size hail, and tornadoes will be possible with this complex as it moves through. In addition, heavy rainfall will again continue to be a concern during this time. High rainfall rates and training west to east convection could result in flash flooding, especially in low-lying and poor drainage areas, along with some minor river flooding. Showers and storms will continue to be possible into Tuesday as the main upper trough moves through the region. This activity will steadily exit the CWA through the course of the afternoon as the trough exits to the northeast. High pressure at the surface and ridging aloft will quickly build into the region Tuesday night, with a return to quiet weather expected through at least Wednesday night. Chances for showers and storms will yet again increase across the forecast area early Thursday morning, with chances remaining in the forecast through Saturday. This is as a result of yet another series of disturbances forecast to affect the region. It`ll also be during this time, particularly Friday and Saturday, that the potential for both heavy rain and severe storms will need to monitored in upcoming forecasts. /19/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024 VFR conditions will gradually transition to MVFR/IFR as lower ceilings move in tonight. -RA and possibly embedded thunderstorms will be possible tonight and may briefly drop visibilities to around 4SM. Multiple rounds of storms are likely tomorrow. Winds will be from the southeast around 5 to 10 mph, while isolated gusts to 20-25 are possible with any storms, especially for sites south of I-20./SAS/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 64 79 66 83 / 90 80 50 30 Meridian 62 77 65 85 / 80 100 60 50 Vicksburg 65 82 66 84 / 90 70 50 10 Hattiesburg 66 84 67 87 / 80 90 70 40 Natchez 65 83 65 84 / 90 80 50 10 Greenville 66 79 67 82 / 90 60 50 20 Greenwood 64 77 66 82 / 90 80 50 40 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Tuesday morning for MSZ053>066-072>074. LA...Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Tuesday morning for LAZ024>026. AR...None. && $$ SAS20/19/SAS20