Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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824 FXUS64 KJAN 060037 AAA AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 737 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024 ...New MESOSCALE UPDATE, AVIATION... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 730 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024 Rest of this evening... Main updates to the going forecast were to cut PoPs around 30% or so areawide through midnight as coverage is sparse & any development is late & driven by weak forcing. In addition, fog formation looks possible overnight in the Pine Belt, so this was added as well. Later fcst update will focus more on this. Updates are out. /DC/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 311 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024 Tonight through Monday... A short wave is kicking off scattered showers/storms across the area this afternoon and this will continue into the evening hours. A marginal risk continues, with the main risk being damaging wind gust and hail. The storms will weaken and move north out of the area through the evening hours, ending by late evening. Expect partly to mostly cloudy skies overnight, with some patchy fog possible across the Pine Belt Region. Lows tonight will be in the mid 60s. Weak upper ridging and drier air will build across the area on Monday, but there will continue to be isolated to scattered diurnal storms Monday afternoon. Highs will climb into the mid/upper 80s across the area. /15/ Tuesday through Sunday: The pattern through at least Thursday will continue to support chances for convection in our region. An upper-level low pressure system wobbling over the Northern High Plains through the midweek looks to shear out with a portion absorbed in the westerlies over the Great Lakes Thursday into Friday and a portion cutting off from the remaining trough over the Great Basin. Above normal heights with a flat ridge retreat toward the southern Gulf of Mexico during this time frame. This pattern should allow for a period of decent westerly flow aloft over our forecast area (75+kts) with the southern jet stream and resulting 30-50 kts of 0-6km shear through Thursday. Disturbances in the flow aloft will interact with a hot and humid air mass at the surface, with daytime heating leading to over 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE daily. This is a favorable parameter space for strong to severe thunderstorms around the region, especially if disturbances are timed out to pass overhead during peak heating. A Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms currently exists for Tuesday afternoon in Arkansas and northern Mississippi, increasing to Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms by Wednesday for much of the same area. Flow becomes more boundary-parallel to a front dipping into the region on Thursday, but favorable parameters indicate the threat for severe weather will continue into Thursday as well - likely for areas a little farther south around the Interstate 20 corridor or closer to the Gulf Coast. Additionally the westerly flow, increased wind shear, and high moisture content to the air should lead to efficient rain producing storms. Localized flash flooding will be a concern at times. For now will continue to combine theses threats on a mid-week storms graphic to highlight a period of possible severe weather and flooding concerns. Details will come into better focus for the respective threats as preceding events play out. The afternoon highs before this front will likely reach the lower 90s for portions of the are through Thursday. A turnaround to cooler-than-normal temperatures with building high pressure after the front will bring relief for the weekend. /NF/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 736 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024 Other than a brief period of SHRA & iso TSRA activity, most will begin to wind down over the next few hours, with majority gone around midnight. VFR conditions prevail across the area this evening. Some MVFR vsby due to BR are psbl around the area, with IFR-LIFR low stratus/BR expected overnight at HBG, PIB & MEI. Onset timing looks to be around 06/07-10Z before lifting to VFR flight categories around 05/14-15Z while closer to06/17Z at HBG & PIB. Light southerly sfc winds will persist, sustained up to 10-15mph & brief higher gusts up to 20mph. Some light SHRA & iso TSRA are psbl again Monday aftn. Confidence isn`t high enough to introduce in the 00Z TAF cycle. /DC/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 67 87 70 87 / 20 40 10 40 Meridian 66 88 68 89 / 20 30 10 40 Vicksburg 67 86 70 88 / 30 30 10 20 Hattiesburg 68 88 70 89 / 10 30 0 30 Natchez 66 86 69 88 / 20 40 10 20 Greenville 68 85 71 86 / 40 30 20 30 Greenwood 67 85 71 86 / 50 30 20 40 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ DC/NF/DC