


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
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408 FXUS66 KLOX 110633 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 1133 PM PDT Thu Jul 10 2025 .SYNOPSIS...10/1250 PM. Above normal temperatures will linger into the weekend, but a cooling trend will establish into early next week. The best cooling will occur across the coast and valleys. Night through morning low clouds and fog will become a staple of the forecast, expanding in coverage over the weekend. Monsoon moisture could spread into the region during the middle to later half of next week. && .SHORT TERM (THU-SUN)...10/841 PM. ***UPDATE*** Today was another hot one, as max temperatures ranged from 95 to 106 across interior areas and mountains, 80s to 90s away from the coasts, and 70s to 80s across the coastal areas (except down to 60s to 70s along the Central Coast). These temperatures have cooled down enough expire the Heat Advisories that were in effect. Gusty advisory level sundowner winds will continue across SW Santa Barbara this evening into overnight, and a wind advisory is in effect until 3am tonight. The marine layer clouds are starting to make a return along the Central Coast, where patchy dense fog will be possible overnight. Elsewhere, the marine layer clouds are expected to expand into the Ventura and Los Angeles County Coasts overnight, lingering through the morning, and potentially hugging the beaches through the day tomorrow considering strengthening onshore LAX-DAG gradient tomorrow. Onshore gradients across the region as a whole will increase tomorrow, resulting in max temps up to the coastal slopes cooling off compared today. Max temps tomorrow will range from 80s to high 90s away from the coasts, where as the coasts will reach into the high 60s to high 70s. Across the Antelope Valley, however, temperatures will remain hot and in the low triple digits. As for wind, the onshore gradients will result in gusty SW winds across the SLO interior and the AV foothills/floor, with gusts up to 40-45 mph possible. ***From Previous Discussion*** Another hot day is occurring across the valleys, mountains, and desert as strong high pressure aloft remains in place today. Several sites away from the coast are closing in on the 100 degree mark in the Southland. A heat advisory (issued earlier this morning) remains in effect until 8 pm PDT this evening due to air mass approaching critically hot criteria for people sensitive to the heat. Onshore flow, keeping temperatures moderated along the coast the past several days, will strengthen through early next week. The marine layer depth will deepen over the coming days and through the weekend as strong onshore flow establishes. With 500 mb heights not changing by much and model solutions continuing to suggest KLAX-KDAG surface pressure gradients exceeding 9 mb, there is some concern that low clouds and fog may sock in the beaches similar to a May Gray or June Gloom day. Outside the marine layer depth, the air mass will remain and above normal for this time of year. The latest NAM BUFR time height sections suggest the marine layer depth deepening to near 1500 feet deep at KLAX by Saturday, so it is same to assume the foothills, mountains and desert will remain above seasonal normals. Despite strong onshore flow exceeding 5 to 6 mb along the Central Coast, dense fog issues should linger over the next several nights and mornings. With the strong onshore flow developing and surface pressure gradient above the 97th percentile for this time of year, gusty onshore winds are likely to develop across the interior valleys, such as the San Luis Obispo County interior valleys and the Antelope Valley. While confidence higher for advisory level winds each afternoon and evening in the adjacent foothills of the Antelope Valley, advisory level winds cannot be ruled out in the Shandon and Cholame Valleys and the Antelope Valley floor. Wind advisory headlines could be needed as soon as Friday afternoon and evening, but there is always some uncertainty with the actual surface pressure gradient values as the transition takes place. Confidence is a bit higher for stronger gradient values over the weekend as the onshore flow will likely strengthen into the forecast range. With the gusty winds across the interior and warmer than normal conditions lingering, elevated to brief critical fire weather conditions are likely to persist. .LONG TERM (MON-THU)...10/201 PM. Strong onshore flow will remain in place through at least Monday, and possibly into Tuesday. EPS solutions suggest a brief pop-up in the 500 mb heights on Sunday, which will likely thin the marine layer slightly, but strong onshore flow in place will likely drive the forecast for most coastal and valley areas. Night through morning low clouds and fog will continue to be a staple of the forecast, struggling to clear from the beaches and immediate coast each afternoon. Gusty onshore winds will continue to flirt with advisory levels across the interior portions of the area. Currently, the latest forecast ensembles suggest a weakening of the onshore flow pattern on Wednesday, then hint at the possibilty of the window opening up for monsoonal moisture to slip into the region. && .AVIATION...11/0631Z. At 05Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 500 ft deep. The top of the inversion was near 2600 feet with a max temperature of 26 C. High confidence in TAFs for KPMD, KWJF, KBUR, KVNY, KVNY, KSMX, and KSMO. Moderate confidence elsewhere with a 20-30 percent chance of VFR conds prevailing, except for KSBA where there is a 30 percent chance of IFR or lower cigs/vsbys between 12Z-20Z. Flight category changes may be off by two hours and one flight category. KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 10 percent chance of 6 kts east wind component at times between 10-17Z. KBUR...High confidence in VFR TAF. There is a 10 percent chance of IFR or lower cigs/vsbys between 11Z-17Z. && .MARINE...10/847 PM. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds will continue across the Outer Waters south of Point Conception through late tonight and into early Friday morning. For the Inner Waters, SCA level winds will continue across western and southern portions of the Santa Barbara Channel through late tonight. Patchy dense fog focused across the waters adjacent to the central coast and west of the Northern Channel Islands will likely occur tonight and into morning hours tomorrow. From Saturday forward, benign conditions (light winds and calm seas) with night through morning low clouds and fog (dense at times) is expected across the coastal waters through at least mid-week. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for zones 650-670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT Friday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...Hall/Lund AVIATION...Munroe MARINE...Black SYNOPSIS...Hall weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox