408
FXUS66 KLOX 110633
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1133 PM PDT Thu Jul 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...10/1250 PM.

Above normal temperatures will linger into the weekend, but a
cooling trend will establish into early next week. The best
cooling will occur across the coast and valleys. Night through
morning low clouds and fog will become a staple of the forecast,
expanding in coverage over the weekend. Monsoon moisture could
spread into the region during the middle to later half of next
week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THU-SUN)...10/841 PM.

***UPDATE***

Today was another hot one, as max temperatures ranged from 95 to
106 across interior areas and mountains, 80s to 90s away from the
coasts, and 70s to 80s across the coastal areas (except down to
60s to 70s along the Central Coast). These temperatures have
cooled down enough expire the Heat Advisories that were in
effect. Gusty advisory level sundowner winds will continue across
SW Santa Barbara this evening into overnight, and a wind advisory
is in effect until 3am tonight.

The marine layer clouds are starting to make a return along the
Central Coast, where patchy dense fog will be possible overnight.
Elsewhere, the marine layer clouds are expected to expand into
the Ventura and Los Angeles County Coasts overnight, lingering
through the morning, and potentially hugging the beaches through
the day tomorrow considering strengthening onshore LAX-DAG
gradient tomorrow.

Onshore gradients across the region as a whole will increase
tomorrow, resulting in max temps up to the coastal slopes cooling
off compared today. Max temps tomorrow will range from 80s to
high 90s away from the coasts, where as the coasts will reach into
the high 60s to high 70s. Across the Antelope Valley, however,
temperatures will remain hot and in the low triple digits. As for
wind, the onshore gradients will result in gusty SW winds across
the SLO interior and the AV foothills/floor, with gusts up to
40-45 mph possible.

***From Previous Discussion***

Another hot day is occurring across the valleys, mountains, and
desert as strong high pressure aloft remains in place today.
Several sites away from the coast are closing in on the 100 degree
mark in the Southland. A heat advisory (issued earlier this
morning) remains in effect until 8 pm PDT this evening due to air
mass approaching critically hot criteria for people sensitive to
the heat.

Onshore flow, keeping temperatures moderated along the coast the
past several days, will strengthen through early next week. The
marine layer depth will deepen over the coming days and through
the weekend as strong onshore flow establishes. With 500 mb
heights not changing by much and model solutions continuing to
suggest KLAX-KDAG surface pressure gradients exceeding 9 mb, there
is some concern that low clouds and fog may sock in the beaches
similar to a May Gray or June Gloom day. Outside the marine layer
depth, the air mass will remain and above normal for this time of
year. The latest NAM BUFR time height sections suggest the marine
layer depth deepening to near 1500 feet deep at KLAX by Saturday,
so it is same to assume the foothills, mountains and desert will
remain above seasonal normals. Despite strong onshore flow
exceeding 5 to 6 mb along the Central Coast, dense fog issues
should linger over the next several nights and mornings.

With the strong onshore flow developing and surface pressure
gradient above the 97th percentile for this time of year, gusty
onshore winds are likely to develop across the interior valleys,
such as the San Luis Obispo County interior valleys and the
Antelope Valley. While confidence higher for advisory level winds
each afternoon and evening in the adjacent foothills of the
Antelope Valley, advisory level winds cannot be ruled out in the
Shandon and Cholame Valleys and the Antelope Valley floor. Wind
advisory headlines could be needed as soon as Friday afternoon
and evening, but there is always some uncertainty with the actual
surface pressure gradient values as the transition takes place.
Confidence is a bit higher for stronger gradient values over the
weekend as the onshore flow will likely strengthen into the
forecast range. With the gusty winds across the interior and
warmer than normal conditions lingering, elevated to brief
critical fire weather conditions are likely to persist.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...10/201 PM.

Strong onshore flow will remain in place through at least Monday,
and possibly into Tuesday. EPS solutions suggest a brief pop-up in
the 500 mb heights on Sunday, which will likely thin the marine
layer slightly, but strong onshore flow in place will likely drive
the forecast for most coastal and valley areas. Night through
morning low clouds and fog will continue to be a staple of the
forecast, struggling to clear from the beaches and immediate
coast each afternoon. Gusty onshore winds will continue to flirt
with advisory levels across the interior portions of the area.

Currently, the latest forecast ensembles suggest a weakening of
the onshore flow pattern on Wednesday, then hint at the
possibilty of the window opening up for monsoonal moisture to slip
into the region.

&&

.AVIATION...11/0631Z.

At 05Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 500 ft deep. The top of the
inversion was near 2600 feet with a max temperature of 26 C.

High confidence in TAFs for KPMD, KWJF, KBUR, KVNY, KVNY, KSMX,
and KSMO.

Moderate confidence elsewhere with a 20-30 percent chance of VFR
conds prevailing, except for KSBA where there is a 30 percent
chance of IFR or lower cigs/vsbys between 12Z-20Z. Flight category
changes may be off by two hours and one flight category.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 10 percent chance of
6 kts east wind component at times between 10-17Z.

KBUR...High confidence in VFR TAF. There is a 10 percent chance of
IFR or lower cigs/vsbys between 11Z-17Z.

&&

.MARINE...10/847 PM.

Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds will continue across the
Outer Waters south of Point Conception through late tonight and
into early Friday morning.

For the Inner Waters, SCA level winds will continue across western
and southern portions of the Santa Barbara Channel through late
tonight.

Patchy dense fog focused across the waters adjacent to the central
coast and west of the Northern Channel Islands will likely occur
tonight and into morning hours tomorrow.

From Saturday forward, benign conditions (light winds and calm
seas) with night through morning low clouds and fog (dense at
times) is expected across the coastal waters through at least
mid-week.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory remains in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for
      zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for
      zones 650-670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT Friday for
      zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Hall/Lund
AVIATION...Munroe
MARINE...Black
SYNOPSIS...Hall

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox