Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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930 FXUS62 KMFL 092326 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 726 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Friday) Issued at 1212 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024 The H5 ridge axis is positioned over South Florida today maintains the warm, dry, and stable airmass over the area. At the surface we reside on the western periphery of Atlantic high pressure supporting generally southerly flow, with the zonal component of the flow largely influence by the local sea-breeze circulations. This setup will result in another day of warm temperatures and near-zero measurable rain chances, with highs largely reaching the 90s apart from the immediate east coast. Can`t completely rule out a few sprinkles over the interior (near the area of max sea-breeze convergence), but given the dry/stable mid-lvls suspect vertical development of the cu field will be quite limited. Overnight lows will remain mild (in the low to mid 70s), with the only minor forecast concern being some stratus potential near the Lake. The ridge will flatten heading into Friday with surface low pressure moving into the SE US. A warm prefrontal regime will prevail over SFL, with 850mb temps around 20C likely, which would be near the climatological maximum observed for this time of year. Consequently warm to near record temperatures can be expected with highs in the mid to upper 90s over the Interior, with lower 90s near the immediate coast. For the east coast metro the question will be how far inland and how quickly the sea breeze pushes inland. For locations where the winds remain SWrly most of the day, highs in the mid 90s are likely, while for locations that experience an earlier sea breeze passage highs will likely be around 90. As a slight consolation the airmass will remain relatively dry so peak heat indices will only be marginally higher than air temperatures, i.e. largely in the upper 90s to around 100. Although multiple MCSs are currently progged in the warm sector south of the front on Friday, the current consensus is that the lingering presence of the ridge should mostly force those to track either north of the area, or weaken them significantly as they approach our area. As a result will keep PoPs unmentionable on Friday, but it isn`t totally impossible the Lake region gets clipped later in the day by one of these decaying MCSs. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 254 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024 This Weekend: High pressure that been over The Florida Peninsula will be weakening on Friday allowing for a front to move southward and into South Florida on Saturday. The front will then move back north on Sunday into Central Florida. Therefore, the weather will remain dry on Friday over South Florida before a chance of showers and a few thunderstorms develop on Saturday. The best coverage will be over the eastern areas due to the southwest wind flow. Highs on Friday and Saturday will be in the lower to mid 90s over most areas except mid to upper 80s over the west coast metro areas. The heat index readings will be in the 100 to 105 range over most areas, except 95 to 100 over the west coast metro areas each afternoon. Sunday`s highs will be a little bit cooler with lower to mid 90s over the interior areas to around 90 over the metro areas. The heat index readings will be around 90 over the metro areas to the mid to upper 90s over the interior areas. Lows each night this weekend will be lower to mid 70s over the metro areas to around 70 over the interior areas. The only exception is west of Lake Okeechobee on Saturday night where lows will be in the mid 60s. Early To Middle Of Next Week: The ridge of high pressure will build into South Florida for early next week before getting push southward into the Florida Straits middle of next week, as a trough of low pressure moves through the Southeastern United States. This will allow for the winds to swing from a southeast direction early next week to a southwest direction middle of next week. This will keep some moisture in place over South Florida through this time frame. Therefore, scattered showers and low chance of thunderstorms will be possible each day. The highest focus will be over the interior and west coast metro areas early next week before shifting to the east coast metro areas for the middle of next week. Highs each day early next week will be in the lower to mid 90s except around 90 east coast metro areas. Heat index readings will be in the lower to mid 100s over most areas except around 100 east coast metro areas. Highs for the middle of next week will be in the mid to upper 9s0 over most areas, except for the west coast metro areas where they will be around 90. Heat index readings during this time will be in the 103 to 105 range, except around 100 for the west coast metro areas. Lows for early to middle of next week will be in the lower to mid 70s over most areas, except mid to upper 70s over the east coast metro areas. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 710 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024 VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. Winds will trend light and variable tonight before increasing out of the SW on Friday morning and afternoon. With the dominant SW flow, the Atlantic sea breeze will struggle to develop with winds for east coast terminals expected to shift to the SSE after 17-18Z into the evening. && .MARINE... Issued at 1212 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024 A moderate to fresh southerly wind flow across the local waters today will turn southwesterly on Friday as a frontal boundary approaches the region. Winds over the Atlantic waters will likely reach cautionary to near-hazardous conditions Friday evening into Friday night. There will be a chance of some showers and thunderstorms on Saturday as the frontal boundary moves into the region. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1212 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024 An elevated risk of rip currents will persist for the Palm Beach coastline through Friday. As winds trend more westerly over the weekend the risk will decrease over the Atlantic coastline. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1212 PM EDT Thu May 9 2024 As a drier air mass filters into the region, minimum relative humidity values each afternoon through the rest of the week could range between 30 and 35 percent over the interior portions of South Florida. This combined with the generally dry fuels could lead to enhanced fire weather conditions across these areas, although winds should remain below Red Flag criteria. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 75 93 76 95 / 0 0 10 40 West Kendall 72 95 73 95 / 0 0 10 30 Opa-Locka 75 94 75 95 / 0 0 10 40 Homestead 74 93 75 93 / 0 0 10 30 Fort Lauderdale 76 92 76 94 / 0 0 10 40 N Ft Lauderdale 75 94 76 94 / 0 0 10 40 Pembroke Pines 76 94 76 95 / 0 0 10 40 West Palm Beach 74 96 74 95 / 0 10 10 40 Boca Raton 74 96 75 94 / 0 0 10 40 Naples 76 88 77 86 / 0 0 10 30 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ168. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Carr LONG TERM....BNB AVIATION...Redman