


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY
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616 FXUS63 KPAH 131050 AFDPAH Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Paducah KY 550 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonably hot and humid conditions will fuel scattered daily showers and thunderstorms for the next week. - The strongest storms may pose an isolated to scattered threat of damaging winds. Heavy rainfall will accompany all storms. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 205 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Deep layer flow remains seasonably weak this morning. A very modest shortwave is pushing through the northern Plains and will interact with a residual weak upper low over the central Plains and shift eastward through the day today. This will give us a little more jet-level ascent than what we had on Saturday. Thermodynamic parameters remain about the same with peak heating expected to yield 2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE with convection firing up in the late morning and afternoon. Shear remains extremely weak so storm organization will be minimal. Thermodynamics and moisture profiles should support isolated downbursts/damaging wind where the tornado/hail risk appears minimal. Rainfall rates will be very efficient once again and localized flooding remains possible. Storm motion should be to the east at 15-20 kts but any repetitive activity would be pushing our flash flood thresholds. The jet-level ascent remains in place through about 03z Monday which should keep showers going a little longer than what we saw today into the evening hours. Then we sit in a very stagnant southwesterly upper level pattern. Presumably a few waves will work down that regime here and there, dewpoints stay in the low to mid 70s through the period. This should result in persistent daily shower and thunderstorm chances, a little stronger wave is still progged to arrive on Thursday into Friday which will probably result in increased coverage and persistence of storms. The clouds/rain should prevent maximum temperatures from reaching high enough to produce advisory conditions despite the mid 70s dewpoints. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 550 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025 Patchy ground fog should mix out in the next hour or so. Convection will then become the focus of the day with activity starting to fire up by 17-18z. Periodic IFR visibility should be expected in any thunderstorms with locally gusty winds and downbursts also possible. There is a better chance for fog overnight Sunday night than we have seen in recent days. && .PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IL...None. MO...None. IN...None. KY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JGG AVIATION...JGG