000
FXUS63 KPAH 190747
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
247 AM CDT Wed Sep 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Wed Sep 19 2018

Early this morning, a stationary front was to our north with a weak
high over east TN. We are still on the southern edge of H5 NW flow,
with a ridge center over AR. The CAM`s data once again develops
isolated convection across the area. We`ll account for that with
slight chance PoPs. We should see quiet weather tonight through
Thursday night as the upper high moves east across the region.
Friday, a cold front will push southeast into the area in the
afternoon, moving south of the area Friday night. Will continue with
good chance PoPs for convection. It was quite warm Tuesday, with
highs ending up above most guidance, closest to weighted model
data. Will use this approach today with highs about what they were
yesterday, similar to ECS/MET numbers.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Wed Sep 19 2018

The key for Saturday through Sunday will be how far south the front
progresses. PoPs have been adjusted a bit farther south over the
past 24 hours as the models show a strong high passing to our north.
Will continue with this adjustment south, and only mention showers
as the models suggest inadequate instability. Sunday night, return
flow will set up as mid level energy approaches from the central
U.S. Instability will return then as well. Shower and thunderstorm
chances will increase as a result, and persist through Tuesday. We
used a blend of the 00z/12z ECMWF runs and the 00z GFS (and its
parallel run) for PoPs. Cooler temps are forecast. We used a
ECE/ECM/MEX.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 247 AM CDT Wed Sep 19 2018

Mainly VFR. SSW winds 5 to 10 kts today, otherwise light. Some
patchy shallow fog cannot be ruled out around daybreak. Isolated
convection possible again today.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$