856
FXUS65 KTWC 100950
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
250 AM MST Fri May 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Warm, dry, and locally breezy conditions continue
through the weekend. Daily high temperatures will be near normal
through the weekend, then several degrees above normal next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A quiet yet warm weather pattern will persist for
Southeast Arizona over the next week. An upper low positioned over
the Great Basin will slowly wobble to the west today, then shift
back east Saturday, then east of the Southern Rockies Sunday. The
trough axis along the southern periphery of this feature will
tighten gradients just enough to bring breezy conditions Saturday.
Given how dry the airmass is across the region, this will bring
about near critical fire weather conditions along the Arizona/New
Mexico border Saturday afternoon. The Max Daily HDWI out east
Saturday suggests values nudging up near the 75th percentile,
which doesn`t really scream anything significant in regards to
critical fire weather conditions. Usually I have found that the
95th percentile aligns well with critical thresholds.

In any event, shortwave ridge will track in behind the upper low
early next week, with a dry upper low moving developing off the
California coast Monday. This feature will track across the
Desert Southwest the middle of next week and phase with an upper
trough digging S/SSW into the Great Basin along the eastern
periphery of an upper high along the Pacific Northwest. Given the
dry airmass that is firmly entrenched, expect dry conditions for
the majority of our area with the exception of a slight chance
of precipitation near the White Mountains.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 11/12Z. SKC-SCT cirroform clouds AOA
25kft MSL through midday, then SKC. SFC winds less than 12 kts
this morning, .becoming WSWLY thru NWLY with speeds of 8-15 kts
and occasional gusts of 20-25 kts. Aviation discussion not updated
for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Afternoon temperatures near to slightly above
normal will persist into next week. Min RH values will remain in
the single digits to lower teens in the valleys, with values
generally in the teens for the mountains. Saturday and Sunday,
breezy west to northwest winds 15-20 mph combined with already
low relative humidity in place may result in near critical fire
weather conditions. Otherwise, typical afternoon breeziness will
persist into next week each afternoon due to daytime heating.
Winds become light and variable overnight.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson