Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 252257

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
557 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

00Z TAF Cycle

VFR conditions will prevail at all three TAF sites through 00Z
Friday. Only some increasing high level cloudiness is expected
after 12Z Thursday. Winds will become variable, mainly south and
southwest, around 5 to 10 knots or less after 00Z to 01Z Thursday
and then becoming northwest to north and increasing to around 20
to 30 knots with gusts near 40 knots after 13Z to 16Z Thursday.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 250 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018/

Post-frontal airmass has established itself across the Panhandles
today which should keep our temperatures in the 50s. Breezy
northerly winds will slowly decrease into the overnight hours. The
combination of light winds, temperatures falling into the 33 to
36 degree range, and clear skies will lead to the potential for
frost across the Oklahoma and northern Texas Panhandle early
Thursday morning. As such a Frost Advisory has been issued for
this area from 4 AM CDT until 7 AM CDT.

On Thursday, another cold front is expected to move across the
Panhandles throughout the day. This may result in the NW zones
reaching their daily high temperature early in the day before
dropping for the remainder of the day. Winds will be on the uptick
behind the front with sustained winds up to 35 mph across the
northwestern zones. The duration of these strong sustained winds
is anticipated to be short, so have held off on any wind
highlights. A lack of moisture return will also keep this front
dry as it comes through.

Friday and Saturday are fairly quiet weather days as temperatures
warm to seasonal averages. Early Sunday morning, a shortwave may
bring some storms out of NM and into the far western TX and OK
Panhandle. This could be the first of several round of rain
chances into the start of next week. Monday afternoon and Tuesday
afternoon look to hold potential for storms, but that will greatly
depend on the track of an upper low moving across the western US.
Recent deviations in the forecast track between the GFS and ECMWF
raise concern for the precip chances on Tuesday. A northward trend
in the GFS, which is showed in the ECMWF, could result in the
dryline surging into western Oklahoma prior to convective
initiation. Should storms develop either Monday or Tuesday, they
could become strong.


.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Frost Advisory from 4 AM to 7 AM CDT Thursday for the following
     zones: Dallam...Hansford...Hartley...Ochiltree...Sherman.

OK...Frost Advisory from 4 AM to 7 AM CDT Thursday for the following
     zones: Beaver...Cimarron...Texas.



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