Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 241432

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
932 AM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Issued at 929 AM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Current radar and satellite observations show a cold front draped
across southeast North Dakota with light rain ahead of the front.
Expect lingering rain to come to an end across southeast North
Dakota before noon CDT. Skies behind the front are sunny with
temperatures in the upper 30s and lower 40s. Sunshine will
continue through today across western and central North Dakota
with strong late April sunshine warming temperatures well into the
50s this afternoon.

UPDATE Issued at 617 AM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Forecast is on track.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Early this morning snow continues in southwest North Dakota.
Observations indicate visibilities around 1 1/4 mile in sustained
northerly winds of 20 mph. Roads have become slick and slushy
creating hazardous travel conditions. Accumulations between one and
three inches of snow are forecast. Snow in the southwest and rain in
central and southern areas are expected to end by 12Z, as surface
high pressure pushes into the region from the west. Skies will
clear, winds will calm, and seasonal temperatures will emerge for
today and tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Marginal fire weather concerns Wednesday as a surface cold front
moves from northwest to southeast across the State. Southwest winds
will become northwesterly through the afternoon with gusts of around
35 mph expected for most of western and central North Dakota.
Minimum RH values in the upper teens and lower 20s are forecast in
north central/central and western areas. Though the potential
impacts of cloud cover adds uncertainty to the minimum RH and high
temperature forecasts.

Thursday an upper level trough is projected to sweep across the
Northern Plains. A brief cool-down will ensue with highs generally
in the lower 60s. Thereafter, ridging builds in the plains with
banal yet seasonably warm weather Friday through Sunday. Late in the
period, ensemble and deterministic models are favoring an upper
level trough digging over the CONUS Northwest and nudging eastward
into the plains. Much uncertainty remains with the timing and
location of this system. Associated precipitation is also in flux at
this time.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 617 AM CDT Tue Apr 24 2018

Rain is expected to clear at KJMS by 13Z with clouds clearing in
central and southern areas by 18Z. VFR conditions will prevail
through the 12Z TAF period.




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