Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 241658

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1258 PM EDT Sat Mar 24 2018


Issued at 327 AM EDT Sat Mar 24 2018

Dry and cool weather will continue through the day on Monday.
Variably cloudy skies are expected today as high clouds push into
the area from the west. Precipitation with a plains low pressure
system will stay off to our south and west today. Mainly sunny skies
are expected on Sunday. Increasing clouds on Monday will be the
precursor of rain that is expected for Monday night through Tuesday
night. A soaking rain is expected during this time frame. Highs will
remain in the upper 30s to lower 40s today and Sunday before warming
into the 50s for Monday and Tuesday.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 327 AM EDT Sat Mar 24 2018

Limited concerns in the short term period. The system traversing the
plains states will remain off to our south today. The biggest affect
on our area from the system will be clouds and wind. High clouds
will continue to advance into the area from the west today with
variably cloudy skies. The thickest clouds will likely be across our
southern half of the forecast area or along and south of I-96. A
strong east wind today will make it feel colder than it is.

The clouds will move south of the area this evening. We still need
to keep an eye on the potential for some lake stratocumulus late
tonight and Sunday morning off of Lake Huron and Lake Erie in a flow
that will be turning from the northeast to the east. Sunday afternoon
and Sunday night should be mainly clear. Low clouds will try to
advect in once again on Monday in advance of our next system. We
look to stay dry through the day on Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 327 AM EDT Sat Mar 24 2018

Forecast concerns deal with rain chances Monday night through
Tuesday night and then precipitation Thursday night.

The models have been pretty consistent in pushing rain into Lower
Michigan Monday night and confidence is high we`ll see measurable
rain. In fact many areas may see close to an inch of rain. The gfs
does show a sharper cold front moving through Tuesday night and some
elevated instability exists so a thunderstorm is not out of the
question, especially over the western cwa.

Rain should end Wednesday morning for a day or so before a southern
stream system moves north east from the Gulf. The ecmwf is a little
wetter than the gfs which takes the low farther east. This is system
is a bit colder too thanks to the deep upper trough trailing it. As
a result, we may see some mixed rain and snow develop as the
precipitation diminishes  Thursday night and Friday.

Temperatures will warm into the 50s Tuesday through Thursday before
falling back to the 40s Friday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1257 PM EDT Sat Mar 24 2018

VFR conditions will continue through Sunday afternoon. East winds
will gust over 20 knots at times through this afternoon then
diminish this evening.


Issued at 327 AM EDT Sat Mar 24 2018

Hoisted a Small Craft Advisory for Today through early afternoon on
Sunday for stiff easterly winds. Winds will generally be in the 20-
30 knot range over the nearshore waters both today and tonight. We
may need to extend the headline into Sunday night and Monday as
well, as southeast winds increase ahead of our next low pressure


Issued at 327 AM EDT Sat Mar 24 2018

An elevated fire danger exists today with drying fuels, a dry
airmass and stiff easterly winds. Several grass fires have been
reported the last few days, and conditions today will be a bit worse
than the last couple days. The threat for spreadable fires increases
today given the wind we will have in place. Winds will be from the
east-northeast at 15-25 mph today with gusts up towards 30 mph.


Issued at 1244 PM EDT Fri Mar 23 2018

With the exception of the Portage River near Vicksburg, area
rivers and streams are holding well within their banks as
streamflow analysis reveals that river flows across the region are
mostly near to below normal. Rain continues to look likely Monday
night into Tuesday night but at this point amounts will likely
produce within bank rises on area rivers and streams, given
projections of 0.50" to 1.00" for many locations.


LM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Sunday for LMZ844>849.



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