National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS64 KOUN 231952
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
252 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

At least a low chance for isolated thunderstorms will continue in
western north Texas along a weak cold that is expected to
eventually stall near the Red River overnight. Sufficient shear
and instability will support the chance for a few severe wind
gusts and large hail with any of the stronger storms that form.
Isentropic ascent along and north of the aforementioned boundary
will help foster showers and additional thunderstorm chances for
most of Oklahoma Wednesday morning. Elevated instability during
the morning and early afternoon hours will be sufficient for any
stronger updraft to produce large hail, potentially up to golf
balls.

Bunker

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 245 PM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

Wednesday Night: Isentropic ascent will strengthen as the low-
level jet increases after sunset. The warm front will lift further
to the north and thunderstorm chances will continue through the
night with a low chance for severe hail.

Thursday into Friday: With the aforementioned warm front lifting
slowly to the north, additional rain and thunderstorm chances will
continue through Thursday morning. There is remaining uncertainty
with how far north the warm front will lift, primarily due to
forecast convection from the day prior, and if that will leave any
residual outflow boundaries. If the warm front remains near the
Red River, there will remain continued chances for thunderstorms
Thursday afternoon across central and north central Oklahoma.

The main upper level support will move through the southern
Plains Thursday afternoon, providing sufficient large scale ascent
over our area. A dryline is forecast to move into the
Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles Thursday afternoon. All ingredients
align for any initial cells that develop along the dryline to
produce severe weather, potentially significant severe with all
hazards possible. As the synoptic scale lift shifts towards the
northeast overnight Thursday, the dryline/Pacific front will push
eastward. Additional thunderstorms may form along the boundary
overnight into Friday morning. With sufficient shear, instability
and a strengthening low- level jet, severe weather remains
possible with all hazards in play. Storms should continue an
eastern push throughout the morning and should be out of the area
by Friday late afternoon.

Saturday: Saturday still has the potential for significant severe
weather across the entire area. Moisture return ahead of another
advancing mid-level wave will move in quickly. A dryline will once
again sharpen across the Oklahoma/Texas panhandles/state line as
a surface low deepens in southwest Kansas. There are still model
uncertainties with this system, however. Timing of the mid-level
trough will greatly impact when the large scale ascent overspreads
our area. A slower trough ejection and morning convection will
limit severe potential, but if there is no morning convection and
the timing of the wave coincides with peak heating, significant
severe weather will be expected. Lastly, depending on how many
rounds of rainfall we get throughout the week, will dictate the
flooding potential by Saturday.

By Sunday, showers and thunderstorms will continue to move out of
the area with weaker flow aloft. Higher heights will move in by
early next week, with a warm up into the 80s by Tuesday.

Bunker


&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1007 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

VFR conditions with mid and high clouds. Low VFR clouds will be
possible in KDUA. Breezy southerly winds will continue overnight.
Winds will shift towards the N and NE as a cold front moves
across portions of the area Tuesday. Some storms could develop
late Tuesday afternoon/evening but chances too low for mention in
TAFs at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  56  68  60  77 /  20  60  70  60
Hobart OK         56  71  59  80 /  20  30  50  40
Wichita Falls TX  60  78  65  81 /  20  20  30  20
Gage OK           48  68  52  82 /  20  30  40  40
Ponca City OK     52  71  56  73 /  20  50  80  90
Durant OK         62  77  65  79 /  10  30  40  30

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM....13
AVIATION...30