Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 191158
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
758 AM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018

.UPDATE...
Mix of light fog and smoke observed in some areas under
inversion this morning expected to mix out by mid morning.
Mostly sunny skies, warming temps with moderately low RH,
and afternoon seabreeze near the coast for another pleasant
mid April day around the area. Latest grids and forecasts
on track.

&&

.AVIATION...
Some areas of fog and light smoke being reported in SW FL
site early this morning and expect this to mix out shortly
with VFR conditions all sites today through the evening with
winds becoming SW-W.

&&

.MARINE...
Light winds and seas less than 2 feet this morning to
continue today with SW-W seabreeze developing through the
afternoon with light chop on waters.

&&

.Prev Discussion... /issued 415 AM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018/

SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)...
Surface high pressure stretched east to west across the Florida
peninsula will drift south today with a general westerly flow
setting up ahead of weakening cool front. This front will move south
into the forecast area tonight and Friday with the only real affect
being some clouds. The boundary will wash out across the region
during Friday with another area of high pressure well to the north
building south shifting low level winds back to northeast which will
bring some slightly drier air back into the area. As for
temperatures today we`ll see a wide range from mid 70s close to the
gulf coast to the middle and upper 80s inland east of Interstate 75
thanks to the westerly flow. Tonight some clouds are expected to
move into the region in the vicinity of the front with lows ranging
from the mid 50s north to mid 60s near the coast from around Tampa
Bay southward. For Friday northeast winds will setup from around the
Interstate 4 corridor northward with some slightly cooler and drier
air moving into these areas keeping temperature in the mid 70s to
lower 80s. Further south lighter north to northeast winds will allow
the west coast sea breeze to develop setting up a range from the
upper 70s near the coast to the upper 80s inland.

MID TERM/LONG TERM (Friday Night through Thursday)...
As we head into the upcoming weekend, a rather benign weather
pattern will remain in place. Broad, somewhat flat upper flow will
continue as surface high pressure remains anchored north of the
region. With time, this pattern will change, resulting in unsettled
weather heading into next week.

Shortwave upper ridging and surface high pressure will persist into
Saturday, with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s and a few showers
across mainly interior parts of the peninsula. The upper pattern
will transition early Sunday, as a strong upper trough moves across
the central Gulf Coast states. This system will nudge closer to our
area Sunday into Sunday night, with substantial increases in rain
chances, especially across the northern peninsula and panhandle, and
interior portions of the state.

Heading into next week, the upper trough will become somewhat cutoff
from the upper flow, allowing it to drift across the region. This
coupled with several weak areas of low pressure emanating from the
Gulf of Mexico, will continue to promote unsettled weather with rain
chances each day. Light westerly flow will favor early day showers
along and near the coast, with late day showers and perhaps an
isolated storm east of I-75. Given the increase in cloud cover and
moisture, high temperatures will be somewhat limited, remaining in
the 70s and lower 80s.

Drier weather will eventually resume beyond mid week as upper
troughing lifts northeast and a zonal to northwest flow pattern
becoming established. Weak surface high pressure will slip in along
with drier air, allowing for warm afternoons and slightly cooler
nights.

MARINE... Westerly winds will shift to north to northeast
tonight and increase to near exercise caution criteria
across the northern waters overnight. The breezy northeast
winds will persist across the northern waters Friday with
lighter winds further south allowing a shift to onshore with
the sea breeze near the coast during the afternoon. Friday
night an evening surge will move across the waters with
breezy northeast to east winds setting up and continuing
into Saturday. The breezy conditions will persist Saturday
night into Sunday with a shift to a more east to southeast
direction during this time. Early next week a cold front
will approach from the north with southerly winds shifting
to southwest.

FIRE WEATHER...
Relative humidity values could dip into the mid 30s across
portions of the interior counties this afternoon and then over
inland areas south of the Interstate 4 corridor Friday afternoon.
Otherwise relative humidity values are expected to remain above
critical levels over the weekend and into early next week with no
red flag conditions anticipated.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  82  66  83  66 /   0  10  10  10
FMY  86  65  87  68 /   0   0   0  10
GIF  86  64  85  65 /   0  10   0  10
SRQ  80  64  83  67 /   0   0   0  10
BKV  81  58  81  61 /   0  10  10  10
SPG  80  67  82  67 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...25/Davis
UPPER AIR...18/Fleming
DECISION SUPPORT...57/McMichael



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