Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS28 KWNS 212127
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0427 PM CDT Mon May 21 2018

Valid 231200Z - 291200Z

A closed mid-level trough continues its transition to an open/weak
trough by Day 3/Wednesday while lifting north toward the northern
Rockies/Pacific Northwest. Mid-level heights should continue to
build over most of the western US into Day 4/Thursday ahead of a
closed mid-level trough approaching the West Coast. There is
uncertainty in the model guidance regarding the strength/path of
this mid-level trough once it makes landfall over the western US
beyond Day 4/Thursday.

...Day 3/Wednesday: Eastern Arizona and Western New Mexico...
A weak mid-level shortwave trough embedded in the general southwest
flow aloft is forecast to move over Arizona/New Mexico on Day
3/Wednesday, which should locally enhance surface winds. Locally
critical fire weather conditions are possible, especially with a dry
air mass firmly entrenched over the region, but widespread critical
fire weather conditions are not expected due to limited coverage of
surface winds reaching critical thresholds.


..Day 5/Friday - Day 7/Sunday: Portions of the southern Great Basin,
Southwest, and Central/Southern High Plains...
There is some forecast uncertainty regarding the path and strength
of the next closed mid-level trough as it moves through the western
US. Portions of the southern Great Basin could see critical wind/RH
on Day 5/Friday, but limited fuel continuity/loading/dryness and the
aforementioned uncertainty regarding the location/strength of the
mid-level trough precludes from introducing probabilities at this
time. Additionally, portions of the Southwest, southern Great Basin,
and central/southern High Plains could see widespread fire weather
concerns on Day 6/Saturday - Day7/Sunday, but there is too much
uncertainty regarding the progression of the mid-level trough as it
traverses over the western US to introduce probabilities for
critical fire weather conditions.

..Nauslar/Karstens.. 05/21/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$


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