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531
AGPN40 KWNM 261423
MIMPAC

Marine Weather Discussion for N Pacific Ocean
NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC
723 AM PDT Thu Apr 26 2018

.FORECAST DISCUSSION...Major features/winds/seas/significant
.weather for the North Pacific N of 30N and E of 150W.

The same challenges with differences in wind speed continue
through this forecast package. The GFS brings stronger winds with
the GFS than the other global models. That being said, there is
generally good agreement in timing and placement of the features.
Model data has been fairly consistent, so plan on continuing the
current forecast with some edits.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

There was an ASCAT pass at about 0530Z with a swath along the ern
areas of the offshore waters. Winds were to 15 kt over the far
srn CA waters. Elsewhere where data was available winds were 10
kt or less. There was an earlier ASCATB pass at about 0450Z with
a swath across much of the offshore waters. The strongest winds
were to 20 kt along or just W of the WA/OR waters which was along
or W of a weak surface low pres. Models track the weak low NE
over the WA waters later tonight. It appears that an occluded
front will track E with the low pres. Later on Sun a cold front
appears to cross into the WA offshore waters and approach the
coast. Models continue to show consistent differences with the
strength of the winds with the GFS somewhat stronger than other
models as high pres builds in from the W. The GFS is somewhat
weaker with the winds initially late Mon as compared to the 18Z
guidance. Plan to stay with the UKMET/ECMWF which are weaker
with the winds although can not say with certainty that gales
will not develop. Will have max winds to 30 kt for late Mon into
Tue along the CA waters where UKMET/ECMWF are consistent.
Elsewhere over the WA waters these models are not as strong as
GFS and will favor these models as was the case with yesterdays
afternoon forecast.

Seas...The WWIII ENP and ECMWF wam show minor differences
intially through the forecast period across the offshore waters.
The ECMWF is higher with seas that it moves over the WA waters
late Sat and Sun and will favor it although it quickly has seas
diminishing over this area through Mon. Will use the WWIII
through Sat then use the ECMWF afterwards.


.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A



.WARNINGS...Preliminary.

.PZ5 Washington/Oregon Waters...
     None.

.PZ6 California Waters...
     None.

$$

.Forecaster Sommerville/Rowland. Ocean Prediction Center.



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