725
FXAK69 PAFG 282158
AFDAFG

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
158 PM AKDT Sun Apr 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Finally seeing some agreement between the deterministic models and
ensembles through the extended period. The main upper level
features are better aligned with this cycle, with less differences
out in time, and therefore, a bit more confidence in the overall
forecast. An upper low currently over the Bering Sea will track
southeast across the Gulf of Alaska through Monday, while an
Arctic high sits to the northwest and an upper trough drops into
the North Slope. Late in the forecast period, another upper low
will move off China and into the Bering Sea. Before that, upper
riding over the Yukon Delta will slide southeast through Tuesday,
as the upper trough sags across the North Slope. This upper trough
across the North Slope will lead to cooler temperatures and
increased cloud cover for late in the week into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper ridging across the Yukon Delta will keep weak southeasterly
flow across the Interior through Monday. Weak energy embedded in
the flow will keep very isolated showers across the region through
through Tuesday afternoon. Not expecting a lot of QPF with the
showers, and they will be hit and miss mainly from Tok to south of
Fairbanks. By midweek, the upper ridge will shift southeast, and
upper trough from the North Slope will sag south across Interior
Alaska. This will bring a few degrees of cooling along with
increased cloud cover. There could also be an increase in shower
activity from Thursday into Friday. Temperatures will remain
steady through Tuesday, with mid 40s to upper 50s. Slight cooling
is expected beyond Tuesday through late week, with highs about 5
degF cooler.

An upper level trough is forecast to drop south across the North
Slope by Tuesday.  This will usher in cooler, initially along the
coast, then spreading south into the Brooks Range for mid to late
week. Periods of fog, low stratus and light snow will continue
through Tuesday. Better chances for snow are expected for mid to
late week with the upper trough overhead. Daytime highs will range
from the teens along the coast to 20s inland. Winds look to
increase late in the period along the coast, with 20 to 30 mph
possible by Friday and Saturday.

Upper level ridging will continue across the Yukon Delta through
Monday with dry conditions prevailing. Areas of low stratus and
fog will continue to impact communities along the Norton Sound
through Monday. A few rain and snow showers may be possible for
mid week as the upper low currently over the Bering Sea tracks
southeast into the Gulf of Alaska. Better chances for rain and
snow will arrive Friday into Saturday as the next upper storm
system moves into the Bering Sea. Winds could become strong along
the coast and out into the Bering Strait for mid to late week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Temperatures are forecast to remain in the 50s across the Tanana
Valley through the next several days. Relative humidity values
will generally be in the upper teens to lower 20 percent range.
Cooler temperatures (by around 5 degF) are expected for mid to
late week as increased cloud cover and cooler air from the north
spread across the region. Isolated rain showers will be possible
through Tuesday, but will be very spotty in nature. Better chances
for precipitation arrive later this week into next weekend. Winds
should remain at 10 mph or less, with wind prone areas seeing
occasional gusts near 20 mph.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...None.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ858.
&&

$$