Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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290 FXUS64 KAMA 041712 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1212 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 624 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 Showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to develop behind the cold front early this morning. Scattered showers and storms will continue to be possible for a few more hours for the southern row of counties in the TX Panhandle up through Wheeler county. Cloud cover looks to remain in place behind the front today. NBM guidance typically does not do to well with these cooler air masses, so have blended in some cooler guidance for highs for this afternoon. Muscha && .SHORT TERM ... (Today through Sunday night) Issued at 313 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 A cold front has passed through the panhandles very early this morning. This front is causing some light showers and thunderstorms that will dissipate before the mid morning hours. The winds have shifted to the N post cold front and are currently gusting in the 20s to 30s mph. These winds will remain gusty through the rest of the morning with a slight weakening trend. The passage of the front will shunt moisture to the S leaving the panhandles with just cloudy skies. It wont be till the arrival of a short wave that the moisture will come surging back into the southern panhandles. This when coupled with the instability of the short wave will spark off another round of showers and thunderstorms. The overall dynamics of this system will allow for stronger storms to develop but this would be over more central TX and not in the panhandles. This doesn`t mean no strong storms wont happen in the panhandle just that it is a very low chance. While the chance of rain may be high the intensity of the rain has a higher chance of being light as the moisture return wont be long or strong enough for high rainfall amounts. The moisture will have a high chance of sticking across the panhandles through the evening hours but as said before this should only lead to lighter showers and thunderstorms. It wont be until Sunday morning that most of the moisture get shunted out of the panhandles that the showers activity will become very light and isolated. Sunday will also see a stronger low pressure system develop across the desert SW which will begin to impact the southern plains. This would mainly be reflected with an increase in the winds for Sunday and a shift to a southerly direction. These southerly winds will also allow for Sunday to be warmer than Saturday with highs in the 70s. SH && .LONG TERM ... (Monday through Friday) Issued at 313 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024 Some breezy to possibly windy conditions may exist Monday afternoon (wind gusts potentially up to 50 mph) with a possible dryline set up across the far eastern combined Panhandles. Depending on the position of the dryline and upper level support from a potentially negatively tilted trough at H5 some thunderstorms will be possible for only the far eastern combined Panhandles. Have stayed with NBM PoPs for now, around 20 to 30 percent, which may still be too high. This dryline is looking like it may still be well into western OK with no thunderstorms in the Panhandles. West of the dryline breezy and dry conditions are expected and depending on the state of fuels fire weather conditions may exist. The rest of the week looks primarily benign with maybe a couple of weak cold fronts bringing northerly winds and daytime temperatures back down into the 70s for Thu, and upper 60s to lower 70s for Fri. Fri a shortwave trough is progged to approach the far northwestern combined Panhandles with maybe a slight chance PoPs for the far western OK Panhandle. Beyond day 7, on Sat is when this trough may actually bring PoPs to the other parts of the FA. This will be the next potential weather maker after Mon. 36 && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1208 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024 MVFR ceilings are being observed at KAMA and KDHT, but ceilings should rise to VFR this afternoon. Showers and an isolated thunderstorm are possible this evening but confidence is too low to include in the TAFs at this time. Otherwise... MVFR ceilings are expected to return tonight with IFR ceilings possible. Highest confidence in IFR ceilings is at KAMA which has been included in the TAF, while lower confidence in IFR ceilings at KDHT and KGUY precludes mention in the TAFs at this time. Vanden Bosch && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 51 74 57 83 / 60 20 10 10 Beaver OK 48 74 56 86 / 30 30 10 20 Boise City OK 44 75 55 78 / 10 10 0 0 Borger TX 53 78 59 87 / 50 30 10 10 Boys Ranch TX 51 79 59 83 / 50 20 10 0 Canyon TX 51 74 57 83 / 70 20 10 0 Clarendon TX 52 70 58 86 / 80 20 20 20 Dalhart TX 47 75 54 80 / 30 20 0 0 Guymon OK 46 75 55 82 / 20 20 10 10 Hereford TX 51 77 58 83 / 60 10 10 0 Lipscomb TX 51 74 57 87 / 60 30 10 20 Pampa TX 51 73 58 84 / 60 30 10 10 Shamrock TX 52 71 57 87 / 80 30 20 30 Wellington TX 54 72 58 87 / 90 20 20 30 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...98 LONG TERM....36 AVIATION...52